For two letters running, the stress in this book came from Asia: first the Tokyo leverage unwind, then a Chinese model that claims to design chips. This week the direction of travel reversed. The market-implied odds of a September Fed hike went from roughly one-in-five to above eighty percent in a single week, spot crude traded through $100, and the US semiconductor complex closed below the support band it had held since spring — on the same day Intel delivered its fastest revenue growth since 2011 and was sold 8% for it.

And the ex-US map? Taiwan finished the week green, Korea’s decline shrank from double digits to one and a half points, the SK Hynix debut ended the week where it started, and the all-world ex-US benchmark outperformed both the S&P and the Nasdaq. This letter is about what it means when the test moves from the supplier’s side of the AI trade to the buyer’s side.

1 · This Week’s Action

The cross-asset backdrop. Oil again — USO +10.4% on the week, the second consecutive double-digit week, now +97.6% year-to-date. Copper miners joined (COPX +5.6%), silver held its bid (SLV +2.7%), and that real-asset shelf sat on top of a board whose bottom half tells the real story: the mega-cap concentrates led the equity decline again (QQQ −2.6%, QTOP −3.0%, TOPT −1.9%, against SPY −1.1%) — and this time the bond shelf fell with them (IEF −0.8%, TLT −1.3%).

That is the week’s signature. In the Tokyo-unwind week, Treasuries caught the safety bid; this week they were part of the problem. When stocks and bonds fall together, the market is not repricing growth — it is repricing the discount rate. Gold (+1.1%) and the dollar (+0.7%) both firmed, which is what that regime usually looks like.

The global sectors. Energy led for the third consecutive week (IXC +4.2%, now +32% YTD) — the oil chart is no longer a footnote to this board, it is the board’s organizing fact. Behind it, the same defensive-and-real shelf as last week: materials +1.5%, utilities +1.3%, REITs +1.3%, industrials +1.1%, healthcare and financials modestly green.

The bottom is new, though: not tech, but communication services (−4.2%) and consumer discretionary (−3.6%) — the sectors where Alphabet’s post-print drift and Tesla’s unrescued miss live. Global tech itself closed only −0.8%, a number that hides everything: inside it, semiconductors were cracked on Friday, software gave back an early-week rally, and the orchestration layer had its best day of the season. The aggregate is calm; the interior is violent.

The regions. No washout, no single story — which is itself the story after two weeks of forced selling. Norway led on the oil bid (+3.6%), Hong Kong +1.7%, Taiwan +1.4% — its first green week in three — Spain +1.2%, Argentina +1.1%.

The red column is shallow: Indonesia −2.8%, Malaysia −2.0%, India −1.9%, Korea −1.4% — and Korea’s number deserves a second look, because it was flat through Thursday and took nearly all of its decline in Friday’s US-driven session. The one to frame: VEU closed the week at −0.35%, against −1.1% for the S&P and −2.6% for the Nasdaq. In a stress week manufactured in the US, the ex-US book outperformed the US core across the board.

The Global Compass

New this week, and recurring from here: the Compass — the same four relative-strength questions, answered the same way, every Saturday.

Who leads and lags, at two horizons; and the ratios that decide the biggest allocation questions in this letter: stay home or go global, stay tech or go broad. The Asia-based home-vs-global view — the most heterogeneous one — joins next week.

Regions: the year’s leaders are the month’s laggards. The YTD column still belongs to the AI supply chain — Korea +68%, Taiwan +54% — with Thailand, Norway and Austria behind.

Flip to the one-month column and the same two names sit at the bottom (Korea −21%, Taiwan −7%) while the month’s leaders are the year’s forgotten: China’s large-caps +9%, Norway +8%, Hong Kong +7%, Poland +6%. That inversion is the July story in one picture: the crowded winners digesting, the money staying in the region but rotating down the leaderboard.

Sectors: one sector leads both clocks. Energy is the only sector on the board leading the year (+32%) and the month (+11%) — the oil chart translated into equity leadership. Tech is the mirror: first on the year (+27%), last on the month (−5%).

The month’s quiet strength — financials +6%, REITs +4%, healthcare +3% — is the defensive-and-yield shelf this letter has flagged for three weeks, now visible at the horizon where trends get set.

Stay home vs go global — the US view. The ratio tells a story the S&P’s own chart hides: US leadership over the world peaked in early 2025 and has printed lower highs since. The spring-2026 recovery leg stalled this month below the old shelf, and this week the ratio ticked down again — the rest of the world outperformed America in a stress week America itself produced. One line, one question, updated weekly: is the decade-long stay-home trade resuming, or was the spring bounce the counter-trend?

Stay home vs go global — the Europe view. For a Europe-based reader the same question has a harsher answer: the home-vs-world ratio has been in a downtrend for the full three years of the chart, and every counter-rally — including this spring’s — has been sold. A Europe-only book has structurally lost to a global one, SAP’s week notwithstanding. That is precisely why this letter’s map is built on where the flows land, not where the reader lives.

Stay tech vs go broad. The concentration trade in one line: a three-year structural uptrend that went vertical in May–June — the AI re-rating at global scale — peaked in late June, and has been rolling over since, now back at its 50-day average. Not broken, but no longer leading: the month in which SMH lost 12% while the world index barely moved is exactly this rollover, seen from above. A decisive break of the average would be the broadening signal the equal-weight bulls have waited two years for; a bounce from it would say the concentration regime survived another test.

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2 · The State

The engine: a rate repricing, not a growth scare. The week’s driver was Thursday’s flush — tariff-driven inflation prints and Fed commentary pushed the market-implied odds of a September hike from roughly 20% to above 80%, real yields pressed toward 3%, and the Mag7 complex took broad losses.

This is a different animal from the two previous corrections in this letter. Tokyo was positioning; K3 was narrative; this is the discount rate — the one variable that touches every asset on every board above at the same time. Hence bonds red, gold up, dollar up, defensives green: the classic fingerprint.

The print week, read from the flow map. The season’s first full week gets its print-by-print scoring in Sunday’s US letter; what belongs here is the geography of it. The American tape sold its own silicon champions on good news — Intel’s strongest revenue growth since 2011 was met with an 8% decline — while the week’s single best print-reaction on the entire developed-market tape belonged to a European name: SAP, up 9.3% on Friday alone, off a 52-week low, on its claim to the orchestration layer of the agentic enterprise (the full thesis: The Agent Is Not the Product. The Orchestrator Is.). For a letter about where value in the AI economy accrues geographically, that pairing matters: the market spent the week repricing which layer of the stack earns the profit pool — and the layers are not all American, and not all in the index everyone watches.

The silicon crack — located, not mapped. The US semiconductor complex closed the week below the support band it had defended since spring — the first structural crack there since this book’s full add; the level-by-level map and what our book’s contract says about it are the US letter’s territory. What this letter takes from it is the location: the crack happened in the buying market, not the producing one. Taiwan and Korea’s ETFs — the supply chain itself — finished green and nearly flat respectively while the US complex broke. And note what the crack is not: it is not the K3 design-shock scenario — the EDA names were quiet. This was a discount-rate shock finding the most extended complex on the most rate-sensitive tape.

The Asian legs held — scored honestly. Last week’s letter ended with one test: Seoul’s Monday reopen, with the US market front-running a gap-up. The gap-up printed — Korea recovered through midweek, and the SK Hynix ADR rallied from its tested $149 line back toward $170 before Friday’s US flush took it down 8.8% to close at $154.57 — almost exactly flat on the week ($154.03 last Friday). A debut that absorbs a Kioxia collapse one week and a US rate shock the next, and holds its offer line on every close, is building a record. Taiwan’s green week and TSMC’s steadiness (below its 50-day, well above its July low) complete the picture: this week’s stress did not come from the supply chain — it came from the customer’s cost of capital. The two-country thesis was a bystander, not a casualty.

Four structures, one grid. Before the count, the states — because they differ, and the difference is the point. The build-out index is ranging: two months inside a well-defined box, currently at the box floor. The US semiconductor complex is testing: still inside its rising channel from the autumn, but in the channel’s lower half after losing the midline. VEU is resting: flat on its horizontal shelf, capped by nothing more serious than a three-week trendline. Taiwan is correcting: under its June down-line, above its breakout. None of the four is broken; all four are asking their own question. That is a rotation’s chart-book, not a top’s.

The structural read — the count, updated on the chart. The weekly count from the October 2022 low now reads: wave 1 into the early-2023 peak, wave 2 into the late-2023 low, and the long wave 3 as the advance since — with its terminal zone drawn just overhead in the 88–90 area (the high so far: 85.74). After it, the map shows a wave-4 rest — the kind measured in months, with the mid-70s as its natural landing zone — and a fifth wave projecting toward the high 90s. The live question is only where in that sequence this pullback sits: either wave 3 is finishing (one more push toward 88–90 before the rest), or the rest began at 85.74 slightly early. Both branches carry the same portfolio conclusion, which is why we can hold them at once: the multi-year advance is not complete at trend degree, but a months-long consolidation is on the map — before or after one more high. This week’s contribution was behavioral, not structural: through a US-made stress week, the ex-US structure was the calmer one.

3 · The Outlook

The four indices. Last week the ladder sorted by physical exposure — Rubin took −9.3% while the agentic operators finished green. This week the ladder inverted: Rubin +0.4% (+92% YTD) as the build-out complex stabilized after its washout, while AW40, the agentic operators, gave back −3.7% (−23% YTD), the Agentic Ecosystem −2.9% (+38% YTD) and HALO −1.9% (−1% YTD).

Then Friday inverted it again: AW40 rose +2.2% on the orchestrator day while Rubin fell −3.8% with the SOXX break. Read the two moves together and the picture is not “hardware versus software” — it is a market that no longer treats the AI trade as one trade. The rate shock hit the leveraged and the extended; the orchestration repricing paid the control plane; and the Agentic Winners index — whose Control-Plane cohort is the diary’s expression of the orchestration thesis — is where we keep score.

The regime gauge. Money Temperature composite at 50 — up six points from last week’s 44, back to dead-neutral mid-band. The gauge is saying what the regional board says: the forced-selling phase cooled, and no euphoria replaced it. Rotations get funded at 50; chases do not.

4 · What May Lie Ahead

Levels. VEU: the 50-day at 82.98 remains the overhead test, the 80.73–78.77 confluence band (congestion shelf + the trendline through the April 2025/2026 lows) remains the downside tripwire — both untouched this week, both unchanged in meaning. SOXX: the 530–532 band is now overhead; the next support is the primary channel floor around 520, the mid-July washout low — and the down-channel from the June highs still reads corrective (flag-shaped) unless 520 goes. QQQ broke 694 on its third test (closed 684); that level flips to resistance. SPY sits just below its 50-day (~745) with a green Friday and 10 of 11 sectors up — the index-level tape is not broken, the tech-weighted tape is. SK Hynix: $149 remains the line that defines the debut. Korea’s 50-day sits far overhead at ~189 — July’s scar needs months, not weeks.

The calendar turns against the book — now. One more input for the two-month map, and it points the same way as the wave count: seasonality. On VEU’s 17-year calendar, August and September are the only two consecutive months with a negative average — August −1.1% (positive only half the time; the worst prints: −8.5% in 2011, −7.8% in 2015), September −0.4%. The rest of the year is green on average; the recovery columns are October through December. Read it against the structural read above: the fourth-wave rest the chart maps and the calendar’s only soft patch occupy the same two months. Neither is a forecast alone; both pointing at August–September at once is how this letter defines an unfavorable window — for adding, not for holding. And a footnote from the month just closed: July was the seasonally mediocre month for the ex-US book (−2.5% this year) and the seasonally best month for the Nasdaq — which printed its worst July on record instead; that anomaly is the US letter’s story, but its geography belongs here: the seasonal script failed in America, not abroad.

Monday is a verification date — for the other shock. Kimi K3’s open weights and technical report are promised for July 27. That is Monday. The design-shock narrative either becomes reproducible fact or stays a demonstration, and the K3 trilogy (Part I · Part II · Part III) is the framework we will score it against. For this book the question stays the same: does abundant design arrive at Asia’s physical layer as more tape-outs and more wafer starts.

Print season, week two — a demand-side referendum on the Asian slice. The names reporting Wednesday and Thursday — Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple — are, for this book, not stocks: they are the four budgets from which the hyperscaler dollar flows to Asia’s fabs, memory lines and packaging floors. Their capex guides are the demand side of the entire flow map this letter is built on. TSMC has already answered once this season (capex raised to $60–64 billion); this week the customers themselves confirm or cut. Every Asia-linked position in the book is, indirectly, long those four guidance sentences. Cadence prints Monday, one session after the K3 weights drop — the US letter carries that print; this book only needs its echo at the physical layer.

Oil: watch the back of the curve, not the front. Spot traded through $100 this week; the December contract sits near $80. That 20-dollar gap is the market saying temporary — a supply-and-risk premium, not a new price regime. The crisis signal would be the back of the curve rising to meet spot. Until then, the oil chart is an inflation-odds input (see the hike repricing above) rather than a growth-shock input. December near $80 is the line this book watches.

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Last week we traced the hyperscaler dollar to Asia and concluded the ex-US rally is a concentrated bet on the two countries that collect it. This week the market tested that bet with everything it had: the largest Tokyo unwind of the year, a Chinese AI model that claims to design…

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This week’s edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets is dated July 11, 2026.

Last week, we showed you that the ex-US rally is six regions wearing a twenty-six-region costume — a concentrated AI-chip bet led by Taiwan and Korea. This week, we follow the money to show why it looks that way: we trace what happens to every $100 the hyperscalers spend, how much of it lands in Asia, and which two buckets within the AI rack account for three-quarters of the bill. The market spent the week drawing the same map — and concluded by taking Korea’s champion to New York.

1 · This Week’s Action

The cross-asset backdrop. The board reads risk-on with a commodity accent. Oil led the week (USO +4.0%, now +57% year-to-date) — the “oil isn’t buying the war” read of recent weeks got at least a partial rebuttal. Bitcoin continued its repair (IBIT +4.2%), and the mega-cap concentrates outran the broad market (TOPT +2.1%, QTOP +1.7%, against SPY +0.8%). On the other side, gold eased 0.8% but held comfortably above the 4,000 belief line, and the long end sold off again (TLT −1.1%) after the hawkish minutes. The rates question is not resolved — it is just not this week’s headline.

The global sectors. Energy led (+3.8%) as oil caught its bid, followed by telecom (+2.3%), tech (+1.3%), and financials (+1.1%) — while every classic defensive closed red: healthcare −2.0%, staples −1.2%, utilities −0.8%. That is a risk-on rotation inside a barely-moving global tape (VT +0.2% on the week).

The regions. The board answers last week’s question — and inverts it. We asked whether participation would broaden beyond the two chip countries. It did, but not the way a trend-follower would have guessed: the periphery led — Brazil +4.0%, Southeast Asia +3.7%, China +3.4%, New Zealand +3.0%, Argentina +2.6% — while Korea rested (EWY −3.4% after its +89% year-to-date run) and Taiwan sat flat. The year-to-date count moved from six regions beating VEU to seven; Poland joined the club. Breadth is broadening at the margin — one week, one region at a time.

2 · The State

The event of the week — the listing. The demand question got answered three times in one week. SK Hynix — the HBM leader and the cheapest large AI name in the world — sold $26.5 billion of ADRs in the largest US listing by a foreign company on record. The book was covered multiple times over. The deal priced at $149, a 2.9% premium to Seoul’s close, where offerings of this size normally price at a discount. And when the ADRs opened on Nasdaq on Friday, the first trades printed near $170 — with an intraday high of $177 — before closing at $168.31, thirteen percent above the offer. The ticker converts from SKHYV to SKHY on Monday.

The tension worth naming. The same week the primary market paid up, the secondary market sold: Micron gave back part of its trillion-dollar week, and the memory complex traded red into the debut. That is not a contradiction — it reads like capital rotating from the expensive expression of the thesis (Micron at ~6.6x forward) into the cheaper new one (SK Hynix at ~4.8x at the offer, ~5.5x after the pop). The Korea discount is not closing by argument; it is closing by arbitrage.

Follow the dollar. The listing is the visible end of a pipeline worth tracing in full. The four large US hyperscalers are heading toward roughly $650–700 billion of combined 2026 capex — Alphabet guides to $180–190 billion, Meta to $125–145 billion, and Microsoft says it is expanding AI capacity by more than 80% while roughly doubling its data-center footprint over two years. Our working estimate for where that money lands: of every $100, $45–55 stays in the US or wherever the data center is built, $10–20 goes to Europe, Mexico and other regions — and $30–40 ultimately accrues to Asian production and suppliers. For the incremental AI-compute dollar the Asian share is higher, around $40–50 of every $100, because the marginal AI dollar contains more GPUs, HBM, advanced packaging, server assembly and cooling — and less land and conventional construction. At a $675 billion midpoint, that implies an Asian revenue pool of roughly $200–270 billion a year, with a central estimate of around $235 billion. This is an economic-value estimate, not a reported accounting number — hyperscalers do not disclose the geography of their capex, and an invoice paid to Nvidia in California ultimately funds wafers in Taiwan and HBM stacks in Korea.

Taiwan is the largest single destination — 13–18% of total capex, $88–122 billion across foundry, advanced packaging, server ODMs, substrates, cooling, and power. Korea’s share is narrower but more concentrated — 7–11%, $47–74 billion — because it flows almost entirely into the single most profitable bucket: memory. Korean producers accounted for nearly 80% of global HBM revenue in the first quarter (SK Hynix 58%, Samsung 21%, per Counterpoint). Japan sits one or two layers upstream — equipment, wafers, photoresists, substrates — collecting its share when TSMC, SK Hynix, and Samsung spend to expand. China’s manufacturing footprint is larger than its profit capture. Malaysia and the rest of Southeast Asia are the China-plus-one winners.

Inside the AI rack. Cut the same $100 differently — not hyperscaler capex, but the AI system itself — and the concentration sharpens further. Our 2026 central case: memory takes $38 of every AI-hardware $100 (HBM alone is $18–25 of complete rack cost), accelerator and host-CPU compute takes $40 (with the design and IP margin staying largely in the US, and TSMC capturing the fabrication and packaging slice), and everything else — networking, power, cooling, boards, assembly — competes for the remaining $22.

Memory and compute now divide roughly three-quarters of the AI-system dollar between them. That is why the economic leverage sits with HBM suppliers, accelerator designers, and advanced-packaging capacity rather than with conventional server assemblers — and why the memory story keeps forcing itself into this letter. Within the Asian pool itself, the two largest slices are advanced logic fabrication with packaging, and memory:

The concentration check, week two. The Vanguard four-slice comparison keeps score on the same story from the top down: VEU (large-cap-tilted, chip-heavy at the top) finished Friday at +14.2% year-to-date against VSS (small-caps, no mega-cap chip names) at +8.5% — the gap widened to 5.7 percentage points from 5 a week ago. The rally is still being carried by exactly the names the flow framework says are collecting the capex dollar.

The two legs against each other. Taiwan compounded steadily all year; Korea went vertical from May. This week the two swapped character — Taiwan flat, Korea digesting. That is what a hand-off inside a theme looks like, not a top.

The structural read. The three-year log view keeps the story honest: a staircase from the 2023 low — +69% over the window — with every correction holding above the prior shelf, including April’s fast flush. VEU trades above both its 50-day (82.6) and 200-day (76.5) averages with RSI at 52: stretched in price, mid-range in momentum. Our chart terminal’s machine wave read (beta) counts the advance as an impulse now in a fifth-wave extension, with invalidation far below at 52.54 — nothing in the structure argues against the trend. The risk at this altitude is breadth and rate path, not pattern.

3 · The Outlook

The four indices. The week told the whipsaw story honestly. Rubin fell 5.6% on Tuesday, recovered 3.9% on Thursday — the first all-green day since Monday — and finished the week at −0.1%: a round trip. The agentic side led into Thursday and then gave back 3.3% on Friday, into the debut, ending the week at +1.4% (AEI). AW40 added +1.7%, HALO lost −2.6%. Year-to-date the ladder reads: Rubin +119%, AEI +47%, HALO +5%, AW40 −21% (equal-weight variants). The barbell swapped sides twice and ended the week close to balance — this is a tug-of-war, not a regime change. Friday’s give-back on the agentic side is the same rotation §2 describes: capital moving toward the cheaper expressions of the same theme.

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This week’s edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated July 07, 2026.

For weeks, we have described the US tape as narrow — a handful of names carrying a wide index. This week, we widen the lens to the whole world and find the same fingerprint.

The international rally that shows up green on every screen is not broad. It has been a concentrated bet on the AI hardware supply chain, wearing a benchmark’s clothing — and the moment you count the participants rather than read the headline, the concentration is impossible to miss.

The read below holds that this is rotation, not risk-off, and that the concentration is the single most important thing to understand about global equities right now.

1 · This Week’s Action

Three boards, top to bottom: the cross-asset backdrop, the global sectors, then the regions and factors. Each is sorted by Weighted Alpha, with leaders at the top.

The cross-asset backdrop. The bellwethers set the tone before equities open. This week, bonds softened as yields firmed (the long end down more than the belly), the dollar drifted lower, gold held, and the risk-seeking corners — bitcoin, silver, copper — pushed higher. A backdrop that leans risk-friendly, with no haven bid anywhere in it.

The tell is what is absent: no scramble for protection, no credit stress, no bid for bonds. The risk assets led, and the safe assets lagged — the signature of repositioning, not de-risking.

The global sectors. Read top to bottom, the global sector board carries the same split we flagged in the US, one level up. Financials led the world on the week; industrials, telecom, and materials followed; global technology finished near the bottom of the green — up, less than one percent, while financials ran four-and-a-half. The defensives and the rate-proxies — staples, utilities, energy, REITs — sat in the red.

The anomaly is the same as in the US: global tech’s flat week hides the strongest trend on the board. Its Weighted Alpha is the highest of any sector and its three-month gain the largest — this is a leader resting, not a leader breaking. The rotation ran from the crowded winner into the laggards, not out of risk.

The regions and factors. Here is the week’s real story, and it is a story about concentration. The board is a sea of green — but read it the way it deserves to be read, and the green is misleading.

Count the participants. Of the twenty-six single-country and regional ETFs on the board, twenty-one finished the year to date positive and five negative — but only six have beaten the ex-US benchmark (VEU, +14.6% YTD): Korea (+95%), Taiwan (+69%), Thailand, Austria, the Netherlands and Japan.

Twenty of twenty-six lag the very index they compose. And the two that carry it — Korea and Taiwan — are the semiconductor economies (Samsung and SK Hynix; TSMC), with the Netherlands (ASML) close behind. The ex-US benchmark’s return, stripped of narrative, is the AI hardware supply chain. Everywhere else — China (−15% YTD), India (−8%), Indonesia (−37%) — is flat to falling. This is not a broad international bull. It is the US concentration story, translated into regions.

2 · The State

The global market map. The single structural read of global equities right now is concentration. The broad, democratic slices of the market are lagging the cap-weighted ones — and that gap is the whole story.

The clearest proof sits in one chart. Rebase the four Vanguard slices to a common start and the concentration is visible: the ex-US benchmark (VEU) leads at +15% year to date, but the broad ex-US small-cap fund (VSS) trails at +10% — a five-point gap, with emerging markets (VWO) and even the total-world fund (which contains the US) in between. When the democratic basket of everything trails the cap-weighted index by five points, a handful of large names are doing the work and the average stock is being left behind.

That is the Bessembinder skew — a few winners create the wealth, the median destroys relative value — showing up not in a spreadsheet of individual stocks but on the face of the market itself.

The thesis. The tape is risk-on and rotating, but the leadership is both narrow and unresolved. Two facts sit in tension and we hold both:

• Concentration is the structure. The gains are carried by the AI-chip complex — the same barbell we live on in the US, now visible in which countries win. Own the two right regions and you beat the world; own the average region and you lag it.

• Ex-US leadership is a trend the US briefly out-ran. Measured over the year, the ex-US funds carry the stronger momentum — Weighted Alpha ranks developed-ex-US and all-world-ex-US above the total-world fund, and VEU (+14.6% YTD) has beaten the S&P (+10.2%). But this week the US quietly held serve: the total-world fund (which contains the US) edged the ex-US fund, and the S&P out-ran VEU on the five-day. The international-leadership trade is real on the trend and paused on the week.

• Factors say offense. Inside the ex-US universe, value and growth both out-ran min-vol this week, with the low-volatility factor dead last — the posture of a market repricing, not retreating. But the same skew applies: the median factor tilt still lags the concentrated winner.

The VT/SPY read — international vs US. The co-leadership question resolves cleanly by horizon: year to date, ex-US leads (VEU > S&P); this week, the US led (S&P and total-world > ex-US). A weakening dollar quietly helps the non-US books underneath — a tailwind for the international trend if it holds, a headwind removed if the dollar turns.

The structural read — the ex-US benchmark’s channel. The multi-year picture on the ex-US benchmark (VEU) is a clean ascending channel off the 2025 base, and price now rides the upper rail — the uptrend intact and, if anything, stretched. The read stays constructive while VEU holds the channel; the rising midline and the lower rail are where a pullback gets bought, and a decisive close below the channel is what would flip the trend.

The internals behind the map. The same picture, read through our own indices below: which side of the AI trade — build-out or deployment — is leading, and whether the concentration is broadening or narrowing.

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3 · The Outlook

The forward read we hold lightly and reset each week — price tells us before the narrative does. This week the question is whether the concentration broadens or breaks: does the rest of the world’s tape join Taiwan and Korea, or do the two leaders roll over and take the benchmark with them.

The four indices — the clearest read we have. We track this cycle through four functional indices, and they cut the AI trade into its parts.

The build-out side (Rubin) is the semiconductor and infrastructure core — the same complex that is the Taiwan-and-Korea concentration on the regional board. The deployment side — the agentic-opex index (AEI), the agentic winners (AW40) and functional growth (HALO) — is the application layer that runs on it.

Last week the split was clean: the build-out side lagged on the semis’ rest while the deployment indices led — and that is the tell worth flagging. HALO and AW40 are the cohorts that lagged the build-out through the past months of the AI-hardware run; their turning up now is relative-laggard outperformance — a mean-reversion signal, leadership rotating into what had been left behind rather than a new theme. It is the single-stock version of the same broadening we are watching for across regions.

Two scenarios into the seasonally softer late-summer window:

• The broadening one — the world’s laggard regions and the small-cap basket begin to close the gap to Taiwan and Korea, and the rally stops being a two-country story. That is the healthy shape, and the one that would take the concentration risk off the table. It would be the regional echo of what the US cohorts are already doing: if the deployment laggards (HALO, AW40) can turn up against the build-out, the underperforming regions — China, India, Indonesia, the twenty that trail the benchmark — can turn up against the crowded Korea-and-Taiwan leaders. Watch the laggard regions the way we watch HALO and AW40 at home: the first sign of the concentration broadening.

• The narrowing one — the two leaders keep carrying the benchmark alone, the median region keeps lagging, and the index rises on ever-thinner participation. That is the classic late-cycle setup — a rising benchmark that is quietly one trade.

Either way, we expect the earnings season to be the referee. The risk we watch is not price but expectations: the AI-hardware names that are the concentration carry the highest bar of the cycle, and a small miss into a bar that high reprices fast — the same conclusion we reach in this week’s US edition, from the other direction.

The macro frame sits underneath all of it — whether the inflation impulse is cresting or entrenching decides how much multiple the concentrated winners get to keep, and firmer yields this week are a small vote for caution on the long-duration leaders.

The point is not to chase Taiwan and Korea but to watch the breadth: the asymmetry into next quarter lies in whether the world’s other twenty regions turn up to join them, or whether the benchmark keeps rising on two.

🔒 Be Informed — the rest is for subscribers. Free: the LinkedIn newsletter + closelook.net. C+ (paid): real-time push on every portfolio move → closelook.net/subscribe.

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The semiconductor leadership cracked exactly where our Beta-Instability call pointed (Daily Pulse 02 June), the wave we flagged in Section 11 fired on schedule, and the damage stayed inside tech. A (probab…

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Thank you for reading this week’s edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated May 30, 2026. The next edition will be published on June 06, 2026.

In This Edition

(1) This Week’s Action

(2) Ove…

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Thank you for reading this week’s edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated May 23, 2026. The next edition will be published on May 30, 2026.

For the schedule of our other publications, p…

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Thank you for reading this week’s edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated May 02, 2026 👋. The next edition will be published on May 9, 2026.

For the schedule of our other publications, please check the schedule at the end.

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Thank you for reading this week’s edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated April 26, 2026 👋. The next edition will be published on May 3, 2026.

For the schedule of our other publications, please check the schedule at the end.

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Thank you for reading this week’s edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated April 19, 2026 👋. The next edition will be published on April 26, 2026.

For the schedule of our other publications, please check the schedule at the end.

Table of Contents

1. This Week’s Action

2. Overview: The Global Market Map

3. The State

4. …

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated November 23, 2024 👋. The next edition will be published on November 30, 2024.

The next edition of Closelook@US Stock Markets will be published on November 24, 2024.

The next edition of Closelook@Hypergrowth will be published on November 27, 2024,

A Closelook At This Edition

1. This Week's Action: Global Stocks - Two Tales of Stock Market Action

2. Global Stock Markets: Comprehensive Overview Of 36 Global Stock Markets

3. Crypto Crazy: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana

4. The ETF Portfolio: Continued Rebalancing

5. This Week's ETF Spotlight: VanEck Sustainable Future of Food UCITS

6. Knowledge Corner: MAHA

7. Upcoming Transactions: More Rebalancing Ahead

8. Final Words: The DOGE Initiative May Calm Bond Vigilantes

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(1) This Week's Action: Global Stocks In Retreat Mode

The week spanning from Monday, November 18 to Friday, November 22, 2024, displayed two different sets of stock market behavior.

While global stock markets outside the US were flat on aggregate on the week, the US stock markets headed north. While crypto assets move significantly higher, the Mag-7 turned into the Drag-7.

Strongest Performers

• Bitcoin led with the highest YTD return of 134.4% and the most substantial weekly gain of 10.3%

• The Nasdaq shows the best YTD performance among traditional indices at 26.6%. but was the worst of the four leading stock market indices, adding only 1.7 %.

• Oil had a strong week with a 6.3% gain but remains slightly negative for the year.

Traditional Indices

• All major stock indices show positive weekly gains, ranging from 1.7% to 4.5%.

• The Russell 2000 outperformed other stock indices for the week with a 4.5% gai.n.

• The 10-year Treasury yield remained stable at 4.41% with minimal YTD. movement.

The Dow Jones Global Index rose about 1 % for the week. The index could not break above the downward-sloping upper consolidation channel trendline.

Price action still looks like a consolidation/correction inside a bull market to me and not like the start of a reversal and a significant top. The long-term bull channel is still intact.

The index has lost about 0.5 percent in the month. It has been down 2 percent in the last 30 days. It is up 14,07 % YTD and 20,49 % in a 52-week perspective.

While the odds still favor another rate cut in December in the US, continued US rate cuts in 2025 seem more unlikely. The ECB will likely cut rates more aggressively.

This should continue to strengthen the US Dollar and keep the downward pressure on the Euro.

Looking at the global stock markets, ex, the US, the situation worsens. The chart above shows the Vanguard FTSE All World Ex US ETF. The ETF failed to make an ATH in 2024.

It has declined much more than the Dow Jones Global Index, which is heavily skewed toward the US. The index is sitting on a significant support level. If it breaks, further declines may lie ahead.

(2) Global Stock Markets: Comprehensive Overview Of 36 Global Stock Markets

Argentina, Hungary, Taiwan, Germany (DAX), and India continue to be the five best-performing global stock markets outside the US, taking a one-year perspective.

The table below displays 36 global stock markets. Laggards are Russia, Mexico, South Korea, France, and the German and Dutch midcap indices.

Until two weeks ago, the Russian RTS Index was the only index in the red and the worst-performing one globally, taking a 1-year perspective. As of 22 November 2024, Mexico, South Korea, and France have turned negative, too.

Taking a 5-day view, 17 of the 36 stock markets covered traded up for the week. Argentina was the best performer, followed by South Korea. Russia cratered.

The Nifty Fifty Index in India was up 1.5 % on the week. The Equal Weight Nifty Fifty index is sitting on a critical support level. I expect the market to move higher from here and resume its uptrend.

The same applies to the Nifty Fifty Index itself. I see India as a net beneficiary of the Trump policy.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index was unable to reach above the consolidation trendline. It sits on the lower bull trend line, which has been developing since the start of the bull in late 2022.

A break below the trendline may indicate that a temporary end of the European bull market is ahead.

The same applies to the MSCI Eurozone ETF. It failed to make an ATH. The ETF has already broken below that bull trend line.

The same also applies to the German MDAX index. A move toward the 26000 to 25000 level seems likely.

The SDAX is negative YTD now. 13300 is a critical support level. A break below the level seems likely to me. The downtrend is firmly intact.

The ASEAN stock markets have moved in the opposite direction to the European markets recently. I expect this to continue. I also see the ASEAN countries as net beneficiaries of the Trump policy shift.

Various ASEAN indices hit the upper trend line and consolidated in the past weeks. The consolidation should be in its final stage or may have ended already. I expect the bull market to resume shortly/or have resumed already.

In contrast to the various ASEAN countries, Japan has trended down since the summer of 2024. I doubt there will be another attempt to reach the 42000 level on the Nikkei index soon.

Chart-wise, the UK stock market looks better to me now. The long-term bullish trend is still intact.

We may see a year-end rally as the consolidation/correction looks relatively complete.

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(3) Crazy Crypto

Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana have risen sharply since the Trump election victory. I believe that in the short-term they are due for a pause.

(1) Bitcoin

Bitcoin may have completed five waves up. A move above 100.000 USD may be the short-term top.

I do not see the top of the fifth wave as the top of the Bitcoin bull market, as I expect an extended impulse wave with nine legs to unfold.

I sold all my Microstrategy positions above 500 USD. Options on the IBIT BItcoin fund are a better way to embark on a leveraged Bitcoin trade, in my opinion. I only trade selling options - selling puts to play a move up and selling cally to play a move down.

Ether is still 700 points below the spring 2024 peak. I expect some catch-up to occur. But Ether looks vulnerable compared with Solana.

Solana moved past the spring 2024 highs and reached above the old ATH. I expect Solana to move close to the 300 USD level soon.

The Coin 50 index is close to its ATH. When Bitcoin consolidates, several altcoins should begin to move up considerably.

I am currently monitoring which altcoins may be suitable for a risk-on investment.

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(4) The ETF Portfolio: Continued Rebalancing

From now on, I will detail the performance of the four investor portfolios in a weekly post in the Daily Brief section of the newsletter.

This will soon entail real-time trading signals. The next update will be on Monday, November 25.

The ETF portfolio developed nicely during the week. I made three transactions.

I added to the Solana position. I rebought the INQQ Internet India ETF and I bought an initial position in the VanEck Sustainable Future of Food UCITS - a beneficiary of the Trump MAHA policy.

The two Indian ETFs and the Roundhill Weight Loss ETF are the biggest losers. The Bitcoin ETF has been the best performer.

Selling the Gold Miners ETF and replacing it with a Solana ETP proved to be correct. The S&P Capital markets ETF, a recent buy, developed nicely. The Russel Midcap Pure Growth ETF is up more than 15 percent since I bought it.

(5) This Week's ETF Spotlight: VanEck Sustainable Future of Food UCITS

The VanEck Sustainable Future of Food UCITS ETF focuses on companies pioneering sustainable food solutions.

The VanEck Sustainable Future of Food UCITS ETF tracks the MVIS Global Future of Food ESG Index. The MVIS Global Future of Food ESG Index provides access to companies worldwide engaged in developing and producing sustainable food.

The included securities are filtered based on ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) criteria.

The ETF's total expense ratio (TER) is 0.45% annually. The VanEck Sustainable Future of Food UCITS ETF is the only ETF that replicates the MVIS Global Future of Food ESG Index. The ETF replicates the index's performance through full replication (purchasing all the components of the index). Dividend income within the ETF is accumulated (reinvested into the ETF).

The VanEck Sustainable Future of Food UCITS ETF is a small ETF with a fund volume of €5 million. The ETF was launched in Ireland on June 24, 2022.

The ETF's sector allocation is as follows:

• Consumer Staples: 69.67%

• Basic Materials: 27.36%

• Industrials: 2.02%

• Consumer Discretionary: 0.37%

• Other: 0.58%

As of September 30, 2024, the ETF's top 10 holdings and their respective weightings are:

These top 10 holdings constitute approximately 52.78% of the ETF's total portfolio. Geographically, the ETF is diversified across several countries:

• United States: 53.77%

• Switzerland: 8.63%

• China: 5.82%

• Ireland: 4.94%

• Other: 26.84%

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated November 16, 2024 👋. The next edition will be published on November 16, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

The next edition of Closelook@US Stock Markets will be published on November 17, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

The next edition of Closelook@Hypergrowth will be published on November 20, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

A Closelook At This Edition

1. This Week's Action: Global Stocks In Retreat Mode

2. Global Stock Markets: Comprehensive Overview Of 36 Global Stock Markets

3. Trump Sectors: Hidden Winners, Obvious Losers And More

4. The ETF Portfolio: Continued Rebalancing

5. This Week's ETF Spotlight: ETFs For Hedging

6. Knowledge Corner: The German Stock Market

7. Upcoming Transactions: More Rebalancing Ahead

8. Final Words: Trump 2.0 vs Obama 3.0 (aka Biden 1.0)

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(1) This Week's Action: Global Stocks In Retreat Mode

The week spanning from Monday, October 28 to Friday, November 01, 2024, displayed severe cracks in the global bull market narrative. The week spanning from Monday, 04 November until Friday, 08 November, displayed stock markets in bifurcation mode and seemed to have healed most of those cracks.

This assessment may have been wrong as the global stock markets resumed their path down in the week spanning from Monday, 11 November until Friday, 15 November.

The Dow Jones Global Index has been in a consolidation mode since the end of September 2024. The long-term bull channel is still intact.

The index lost about 1.6 percent on the week. It has been down 2 percent in the last 30 days. It is up 12,75 % YTD and 20 % in a 52-week perspective.

I expected a break above the trendline to occur this week if the US CPI and PPI showed that inflation was still moderating, kicking off the traditional year-end rally, which may last until the end of January (typical seasonal pattern).

The break-out failed when Chair Powell indicated that the Fed was in no hurry to lower rates and when the inflation figures in the US revealed continued stickiness in the core inflation and super core inflation subsectors.

While the odds still favor another rate cut in December, continued US rate cuts in 2025 seem more unlikely. This strengthened the US Dollar and at least temporarily ended the rally in gold.

Looking at the global stock markets, ex, the US, the situation worsens. The chart above shows the Vanguard FTSE All World Ex US ETF. The ETF failed to make an ATH in 2024.

It has declined much more than the Dow Jones Global Index, which is heavily skewed toward the US. However, the long-term bull channel is still intact.

(2) Global Stock Markets: Comprehensive Overview Of 36 Global Stock Markets

Argentina, Taiwan, Hungary, Taiwan, Germany (DAX), Spain, and India continue to be the seven best-performing global stock markets outside the US, taking a one-year perspective.

The table below displays 36 global stock markets. Laggards are Russia, Mexico, South Korea, and the German and Dutch midcap indices.

Until last week, the Russian RTS Index was the only index in the red and the worst-performing one globally, taking a 1-year perspective. As of 15 November 2024, Mexico, South Korea, and the German MDAX have turned negative, too.

Taking a 5-day (the week after Trump's victory) view, only six of the 36 stock markets covered traded up for the week - Argentina, Norway, Hungary, Spain, Dutch AMX, and Austria.

Most of the biggest Asian stock markets performed miserably. Russia gave back part of the gains recorded in the week before.

The difference between the German DAX, MDAX, and SDAX is striking. The MDAX trades around 26,500, nearly 10,000 points below its 2021 peak. It is trading around the 2017/18 levels.

Using the DAX price index instead of the DAX performance index to compare the performance of the DAX with the major global stock markets, the stellar performance of the DAX companies becomes a bit more muted, too.

The index is 20 percent above the dot.com bubble peaks recorded over 20 years ago.

The DAX Performance Index is one of the best indices globally - the power of reinvesting dividends. Most major indices are price indices, however. So, using the DAX Performance Index for comparison leads to a distorted analysis.

The DAX Net Return Index deducts taxes from performance and is an accurate index for net returns.

The DAX Net Return Index, measured in USD, is best used internationally outside the Eurozone.

While the MDAX lags behind the DAX, the performance of the SDAX measuring small-cap stocks in Germany is even worse. At 5775 points, it is roughly 2,300 points below its 2021 peak.

The Russel 2000 has underperformed the SP 500 in the last few years, but compared with the SDAX, the Russel 2000 performance looks solid.

The dire state of the German economy can also be seen in the performance of the German TECDAX.

It was stellar from the bottom of the GFC until the Covid-19 peak. It has been a miserable performer since then. Trading at around 2,450, it is still more than 600 points below the Covid peak.

Times have changed, and the old German business model has stopped working. Charts and price action do not lie.

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(3) Trump Sectors: Hidden Winners, Obvious Losers, And More

Based on this week's market reaction, the following market sectors may be net beneficiaries of the Trump election and have either sound or improving funnymentals and technicals.

(1) The Good

Crypto

1. Bitcoin

2. Altcoins

3. The related digital asset industries with stocks such as Coinbase, MicroStrategy, crypto miners, and ETFs such as the ones detailed in the table below.

MAHA (make America healthy again) Stocks

1. Clean food stocks such as Sprouts Farmers Market and similar

2. Personalized genetic testing and diagnostics stocks such as Natera

3. Dietary Supplement Industry (GNC Holdings or Vitamin Shoppe)

4. Fitness and Wellness Services (Planet Fitness, Peloton Interactive

Government Efficiency Stocks

Companies specializing in streamlining processes, reducing bureaucracy, and enhancing efficiency through technology could benefit. For example:

• IT consulting firms like Accenture or Deloitte which help organizations optimize their operations.

• Software companies such as Salesforce, ServiceNow, or Oracle which provide tools for workflow automation and efficiency

Tax Beneficiaries

The sectors that pay the highest taxes in the US as a percentage of their economic activity or net worth are:

Manufacturing

• Manufacturing firms pay a significantly higher share of corporate income taxes relative to their net worth and receipts. According to the Urban Institute, manufacturing firms paid about 28% of total corporate income taxes after credits despite accounting for only 15.1% of net worth and 29.4% of business receipts.

Wholesale and Retail Trade

• Wholesale and retail trade companies also pay a high share of taxes. They accounted for about 15.7% of corporate income taxes after credits, which is higher than their share of net worth (4.8%) but relatively in line with their share of business receipts (30.2%)

Finance and Insurance

• While finance and insurance companies have a large share of net worth (57.3%), they pay a relatively lower share of taxes (19.4%) compared to their economic size. However, this sector still contributes significantly to corporate tax revenue.

Key Statistics

• Manufacturing: 28.0% of corporate taxes, 15.1% of net worth, 29.4% of business receipts

• Wholesale and Retail Trade: 15.7% of corporate taxes, 4.8% of net worth, 30.2% of business receipts

• Finance and Insurance: 19.4% of corporate taxes, 57.3% of net worth, 8.5% of business receipts

Cyclical US Industrial Reflation Stocks

Under a second Trump administration, several sectors and stocks could benefit from the proposed policy changes, particularly those related to cyclical US industrial reflation.

Energy and Natural Resources

• Trump's policies favoring domestic energy production, such as rolling back environmental regulations and expanding drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska, would benefit energy companies.

  • Oilfield services companies: Haliburton, Schlumberger, and other oilfield services providers would likely see increased activity and profits.

  • Natural gas companies: Companies like EQT and CNX Resources could benefit from expanded drilling and pipeline projects

Manufacturing and Industrial Sector

• The proposed reduction in corporate tax rates to 15% for companies producing goods domestically, along with enhanced tax credits and subsidies, would incentivize manufacturing growth.

  • Automotive manufacturers: Companies like General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis could benefit from reduced taxes and potential tariffs on imported vehicles, although they might face challenges from tariffs on components sourced from Mexico

  • Industrial equipment manufacturers: Companies such as Caterpillar and Deere & Company could see increased demand and profitability due to lower taxes and deregulation

Financial Sector

• Banks and financial institutions are expected to benefit from Trump's policies, including higher interest rates and deregulation.

  • Bank stocks: Companies like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo could see improved performance due to higher interest rates and reduced regulatory burdens

Defense and Aerospace

• Trump's support for increased defense spending and a more robust military would benefit defense contractors.

  • Companies like Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman could see increased contracts and profitability.

Infrastructure and Construction

• The anticipated boost in domestic manufacturing and infrastructure projects could benefit construction and related services companies.

  • Companies like Fluor Corporation, Jacobs Engineering Group, and Martin Marietta Materials could see increased activity and profits from infrastructure projects.

Cyclical Stocks

• Cyclical stocks, heavily influenced by economic cycles, will likely benefit from Trump's pro-business and pro-growth policies.

  • Steel producers: Companies like Nucor and US Steel could benefit from tariffs on imported steel and increased domestic demand

  • Chemical and materials companies: Companies like Dow Inc. and DuPont could see increased demand and profitability due to lower taxes and deregulation

Key Stocks to Watch

• Haliburton (HAL)

• Schlumberger (SLB)

• EQT Corporation (EQT)

• CNX Resources (CNX)

• General Motors (GM)

• Ford Motor Company (F)

• Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

• Deere & Company (DE)

• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)

• Bank of America Corp. (BAC)

• Wells Fargo & Company (WFC)

• Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT)

• Boeing Co. (BA)

• Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC)

• Fluor Corp. (FLR)

• Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. (J)

• Martin Marietta Materials Inc. (MLM)

• Nucor Corp. (NUE)

• United States Steel Corp. (X)

• Dow Inc. (DOW)

• DuPont de Nemours Inc. (DD)

These companies and sectors will likely benefit from the combination of lower corporate tax rates, deregulation, and protectionist trade policies that Trump has proposed.

(2) Not Sure, Maybe, Neutral, Let’s See

1. Small Cap US Stocks in General: Only if interest rates do not rise too much

2. Taiwan Stocks: The markets anticipate that Taiwan may benefit from the Chinese stimuli. The AI-related and semiconductor-based bull market is in full swing and will continue in 2025 and 2026.

3. Russian Stocks: The markets seem to anticipate a Ukraine-Russia deal brokered by the Trump administration, but who knows?

(3) The Bad

1. European stocks: Trump does not care about Europe. Tariffs will hurt the European exporters, and the Eurozone faces structural problems. Germany is a nightmare on its own. Europe lacks an attractive tech sector in which to invest.

2. Rate-sensitive emerging markets: If bond vigilantes start to threaten the US credit markets and long-term rates go up beyond 4.5 % (and move close to 5 %), this will hurt some emerging countries with debt tied to the US Dollar and US interest rates.

3. Alternative energy (solar, wind, etc.): The losers from the drill baby drill approach

4. Chinese exporters and internationally oriented companies, incl. some Internet: Unless there is a deal (brokered by Elon Musk?), I see these companies as big losers.

(4) The Ugly

Japan

Japan is the only developed market economy with rising interest rates and a monetary policy that is becoming more restrictive. This usually does not bode well for equities.

The stock market may have completed nine waves up and may be in a more significant corrective phase.

United Kingdom

The UK stock market looks toppy to me. It is another European crisis economy.

Last week, the market broke below a vital support line.

I do not see a lot of attractive stock market sectors in the UK.

(4) The ETF Portfolio: Continued Rebalancing

From now on, I will detail the performance of the four investor portfolios in a weekly post in the Daily Brief section of the newsletter.

This will soon entail real-time trading signals. The next update will be on Sunday, November 17.

The ETF portfolio lost value during the week, which is in line with the performance of the key regions to which it has been exposed.

The two Indian ETFs and the Roundhill Weight Loss ETF are the biggest losers. The Bitcoin ETF has been the best performer.

I sold the Gold Miners ETF and replaced the “hedge position” with a Solana ETP.

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(5) This Week's ETF Spotlight: German ETFs

ETFs to invest in different sectors of the German stock market entail:

(1) GX DAX Germany ETF (DAX)

The Global X DAX Germany ETF seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the DAX Index.

(2) Germany Ishares MSCI ETF (EWG)

The iShares MSCI Germany ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of German equities. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the MSCI Germany Index.

(3) Germany Franklin FTSE ETF (FLGR)

The Franklin FTSE Germany ETF seeks to provide investment results that closely correspond, before fees and expenses, to the performance of the FTSE Germany Capped Index. FTSE Germany Capped Index is a market-capitalization weighted index representing the performance of large and mid-capitalization German stocks.

(4) Germany Alphadex Fund FT (FGM)

The Fund's objective is to seek investment results that generally correspond to the price and yield of an equity index called the NASDAQ AlphaDEX Germany Index before the Fund's fees and expenses.

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated November 09, 2024 👋. The next edition will be published on November 16, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

The next edition of Closelook@US Stock Markets will be published on November 10, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

The next edition of Closelook@Hypergrowth will be published on November 13, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

A Closelook At This Edition

1. This Week's Action: Global Stocks In Bifurcation Mode

2. Global Stock Markets: Comprehensive Overview Of 36 Global Stock Markets

3. Trump Markets: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

4. The ETF Portfolio: Some Bigger Changes

5. This Week's ETF Spotlight: Potential Trump Winner ETFs

6. Knowledge Corner: Investment Ratios

7. Upcoming Transactions: More Rebalancing Ahead

8. Final Words: Don’t Fight The Fed, And Don’t Argue With The Tape

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(1) This Week's Action: Global Stocks In Bifurcation Mode

The week spanning from Monday, October 28 to Friday, November 01, 2024, displayed severe cracks in the global bull market narrative. The week spanning from Monday, 04 November until Friday, 08 November, displayed stock markets in bifurcation mode and healed most of those cracks.

Three groups of markets could be identified - the good, the bad, and the ugly. Group Good stock markets are beneficiaries of the Trump victory. Group Bad stock markets identified themselves as losers. Group Ugly stock markets were in bad shape before the US election, which did not change after the election result.

The Dow Jones Global Index moved north in the past week - from the 4900 level to 5000 (see above chart, top left).

It broke the very short-term downward channel to the upside (see above chart, top right). It found resistance at the downward-sloping consolidation trendline, which formed in September 2024 and provided resistance to the rise of the index in late October (see above chart, bottom left).

I expect a break above the trendline to occur next week if the US CPI and PPI show that inflation is still moderating (see above chart, bottom left).

This may lead to the traditional year-end rally, which may last until the end of January (typical seasonal pattern).

The index looks like there will be a further extension inside an already extended wave 3 before a more significant consolidation wave 4 is shaping.

The price action since the end of September looks like a consolidation inside an ongoing bull market and not like a topping formation. The long-term bull market channel is fully intact.

(2) Global Stock Markets: Comprehensive Overview Of 36 Global Stock Markets

Argentina, Taiwan, Hungary, Germany (DAX), Spain, and India continue to be the six best-performing global stock markets outside the US, taking a one-year perspective.

The table below displays 36 global stock markets. Laggards are France, Mexico, South Korea, and the German MDAX.

The only index in the red, the worst-performing index globally, taking a 1-year perspective, continues to be the Russian RTS Index.

Taking a 5-day (Trump week) view, the picture changes considerably. Various Chinese stock markets have been the top performers. The Russian stock market also greeted the Trump victory with joy, as did Taiwan stocks.

Laggards have been European stocks as well as those in Indonesia and India. The failure of the ruling coalition distorted price action in Germany.

Inside China, stocks benefiting from more domestic stimulus have been top performers. I expect the second leg of the China bull to manifest now, led by domestically oriented stocks.

The Russian RTS index has been in a multi-year bear market. This may end soon. The markets anticipate a Trump-brokered deal between Ukraine and Russia to occur relatively quickly.

The Indian Nifty Index has been in corrective territory since September 2024. I believe the index may have found a bottom and will start another bull leg soon.

It broke above the short-term downward trend line and found support at the 24000 level.

I will be adding to the current positions starting next week. The first level to buy is at 24000 on the Nifty-Fifty index, and the second and third are at 22800 and 22000.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index moved lower by about three percent during the past week. It again found support at the critical 2-year trend line.

A heavy resistance zone has formed from 5000 to the spring 2024 tops.

The index may see a new 52-week high, but the move looks like the final move up (for quite some time).

Europe looks like the big loser of the Trump election.

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(3) Trump Markets: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Based on the initial market reaction, the following global markets may be net beneficiaries of the Trump election and have either sound or improving funnymentals and technicals.

The Good

1. Domestic Chinese stocks: There will be additional government stimuli to offset the Trump tariffs.

2. Small Cap US stocks: Only if interest rates do not rise too much

3. Taiwan stocks: The markets anticipate that Taiwan may benefit from the Chinese stimuli. The AI-related and semiconductor-based bull market is in full swing and will continue in 2025 and 2026.

4. Russian stocks: The markets seem to anticipate a Ukraine-Russia deal brokered by the Trump administration.

5. Domestic energy stocks: Drill baby drill has been one of the Trump slogans.

The Bad

1. European stocks: Trump does not care about Europe. Tariffs will hurt the European exporters, and the Eurozone faces structural problems. Germany is a nightmare on its own. Europe lacks an attractive tech sector in which to invest.

2. Rate-sensitive emerging markets: If bond vigilantes start to threaten the US credit markets and long-term rates go up beyond 4.5 % (and move close to 5 %), this will hurt some emerging countries with debt tied to the US Dollar and US interest rates.

3. Alternative energy (solar, wind, etc.): The losers from the drill baby drill approach

4. Chinese exporters and internationally oriented companies, incl. some Internet: Unless there is a deal (brokered by Elon Musk?), I see these companies as big losers.

The Ugly

1. Japan

Japan is the only developed market economy with rising interest rates and a monetary policy that is becoming more restrictive. This usually does not bode well for equities.

The stock market may have completed nine waves up and may be in a more significant corrective phase.

2. United Kingdom

The UK stock market looks toppy to me. It is another European crisis economy.

Last week, the market broke below a vital trendline, giving multi-year support.

The UK stock market initially moved up on the Trump election win, only to crater heavily and finish the week in the red.

I do not believe that Donald Trump has any ambition to maintain a special relationship between the UK and the US. The new Labor government turns out to be less friendly to the capital markets.

The economic ties with the EU are only improving slowly. The global trading ambitions of the UK after Brexit turn out to be mostly impossible to achieve.

I do not see a lot of attractive stock market sectors in the UK.

(4) The ETF Portfolio: Some Bigger Changes

The ETF portfolio has increased during the week, reaching an all-time high in mid-October.

The two Indian ETFs and the Roundhill Weight Loss ETF trade in the red. The Bitcoin ETF, the Russel MidCap Pure Growth ETF, and the Global X ETF have been the best performers.

I sold the Chinese Krane Internet ETF and added the S&P Capital Markets ETF SPDR (KCE) and the Russel 2000 Growth Ishares ETF (IWO), which I will detail in the next section.

(5) This Week's ETF Spotlight: Potential Trump Winner ETFs

Financial stocks, small/midcap stocks, and digital asset stocks may be Trump winners.

(1) S&P Capital Markets ETF SPDR (KCE)

The S&P Capital Markets ETF SPDR seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the SP Capital Markets Select Industry Index.

The ETF is well diversified. Exposure to regional banks is minimal.

The table below shows a list of 20 ETFs in the segment. KCE is the nu, number two performing ETF.

(2) Russel 2000 Growth Ishares ETF (IWO)

The iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of small-capitalization U.S. equities that exhibit growth characteristics.

The Fund seeks investment returns that correspond to the performance of the Russell 2000 Growth Index.

The Index measures the performance of the small-capitalization growth sector of the U.S. equity market.

The fund has more than 1000 stocks in the portfolio and is well diversified.

(3) Vaneck Digital Transformation ETF (DAPP)

The VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (DAPP) is a nightmare for value investors.

It contains all the leading crypto miners, leveraged bitcoin proxies, and more that value investors think will soon go to zero. Digital asset enthusiasts like the industry's assortment of A-team and B-team stocks.

Donald Trump is rumored to be very Crypto-friendly. This would be one way to play the trend.

The ETF is only suited for speculative minds. I am not sure yet whether I will add it to the portfolio. I may increase the current Bitcoin ETF position instead.

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated November 02, 2024 👋. The next edition will be published on November 09, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

The next edition of Closelook@US Stock Markets will be published on November 03, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

The next edition of Closelook@Hypergrowth will be published on November 06, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

A Closelook At This Edition

1. This Week's Action: Global Stocks In Corrective Mode

2. Global Stock Markets: Comprehensive Overview Of 30 Global Stock Markets

3. Macro Insights: Trussonomics 2.0 Ante Portas?

4. The ETF Portfolio: Some Bigger Changes

5. This Week's ETF Spotlight: A New Semiconductor ETF

6. Knowledge Corner: Yield Curves, Inflation, Real Rates, Trussonomics and the Presidential Candidates

7. Upcoming Transactions: Waiting Until After the Election

8. Final Words: Challenging the Bull Narrative

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(1) This Week's Action: Global Stocks In Corrective Mode

The week spanning from Monday, October 28 to Friday, November 01, 2024, displayed severe cracks in the global bull market narrative.

The Dow Jones Global Index moved down to the 4900 level and found support at the upward-sloping lower trend channel line, which has defined the lower boundaries of the bull market channel since autumn 2023. The long-term bull market channel was not violated.

The index looks like it has completed an extended wave 3 and is setting up for a consolidation wave 4.

There is support at the 4800 level (between 4850 and 4770) and between 4600 and 4500.

Taking a very long-term view, the bull is stretched. It has touched the decade-long upward-sloping upper trend line.

The index may be about to form a long-term bearish wedge. Right now, the wedge appears incomplete, suggesting that there is more upside to the bull narrative after a period of consolidation.

A short-term downward channel has formed, which may provide resistance to any move north in the coming week(s).

(2) Global Stock Markets: Comprehensive Overview Of 30 Global Stock Markets

Argentina, Taiwan, Hungary, Spain, and Germany (DAX) continue to be the five best-performing global stock markets outside the US, taking a one-year perspective.

The table below displays 36 global stock markets. Laggards are France, China, and Mexico.

The only index in the red, the worst-performing index globally, taking a 1-year perspective, has been the Russian RTS Index.

Taking a 30-day view, laggards have become top performers, with the mainland Chinese and Hong Kong markets leading.

Argentina is the best-performing country, followed by the Shanghai Calls B Index, the Taiwan Weighted Index, Ibex 35, and NZZ 50. Only ten indices moved up, and 26 indices moved down.

Russia was the worst performer. However, India, Mexico, and Brazil performed badly too.

I expect another bull market leg to occur in China soon. I will cut China's exposure and trim positions on the anticipated rise.

I will be adding to the existing India positions. I expected a whole leg down in the Indian market first two weeks ago. This seems to be unfolding.

I will be adding to the current positions on any meaningful dip. The first level to buy is at 24000 on the Nifty-Fifty index, and the second and third are at 22800 and 22000.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index moved lower during the past week. It found support at the critical 2-year trend line.

A heavy resistance zone, spanning from 5000 to the spring 2024 tops, has formed.

The index may see a new 52-week high, but the move looks like the final move up (for quite some time).

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(3) Macro Insights: Trussonomcs 2.0 Ante Portas

The bond market has started to vote early, sending a clear message ahead of the November 5 US presidential and congressional elections. Since the Federal Reserve's September 17-18 meeting, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield has surged by 77 basis points to 4.39%.

This significant increase reflects the Bond Vigilantes' concerns about Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish monetary policy and the potential for economic overheating.

Market Reaction and Analysis

On Monday, October 28, 2024, the Treasury announced its marketable borrowing estimates. The projected financing is $546 billion in Q4-2024 and $823 billion during Q1-2025.

This announcement comes against a staggering national debt, currently at $35.5 trillion. This includes $27.7 trillion of US Treasury marketable debt and $7.2 trillion of intragovernmental holdings.

The latter represents the government's IOUs to itself, primarily resulting from borrowing from public trust funds like Social Security and Medicare.

Alarmingly, this debt is projected to expand at an annual rate of over $1.0 trillion solely to cover the net interest outlays of the Treasury.

The Bond Vigilantes appear to be voting against the Fed's recent actions, particularly the 50 basis point rate cut on September 18. Their concern stems from the perception that the economy is already running hot and further easing could lead to overheating.

Volatility in the bond markets has risen sharply and reached new highs this week, surpassing the volatility spike seen in early August 2024.

Fiscal Policy Concerns and Challenges

The Bond Vigilantes' reaction may also reflect apprehension about future fiscal policies, regardless of which party wins the upcoming elections. Some are concerned that continued expansionary fiscal policies could further inflate the substantial federal budget deficit and fuel inflation.

The next administration will face significant fiscal challenges, particularly regarding debt servicing:

The next administration will face net interest outlays of over $1 trillion on the ballooning federal debt.

This underscores the growing burden of interest payments on the federal debt, likely influencing future fiscal and monetary policy decisions.

(4) The ETF Portfolio: Some Bigger Changes

The ETF portfolio has moved lower during the week after reaching an all-time in mid-October. It has still been up since starting on 1 August 2024.

The two Indian ETFs and the China Kranes CSI Internet ETF trade lower from where

I bought and recommended them. I replaced the traditional VanEck Semi ETF with the new Fabless Semi ETF.

I also added the new Blackrock ETFs focusing on the largest 30 Nasdaq 100 stocks and 20 SP 500 stocks to the portfolio and sold the two US-based tech ETFs I initially bought. I have described the three ETFs in the following section.

(5) This Week's ETF Spotlight: A New Semiconductor ETF

Blackrock has just launched two exchange-traded funds that I have added to the ETF portfolio. VanEck launched a sector ETF, which I have added.

(1) iShares Nasdaq Top 30 Stocks ETF

The iShares Nasdaq Top 30 Stocks ETF (QTOP.O) lets investors hold the 30 biggest non-financial stocks, including mega-cap tech. It has secured backing from the University of California's investing arm.

iShares Nasdaq Top 30 Stocks ETF (QTOP)

• Fund Objective: Invests in the 30 largest companies by market capitalization within the Nasdaq 100 index.

• Number of Holdings: 30.

• Top Three Holdings: Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT).

• Expense Fee: 0.20%.

The expense ratio is 0.20%.

(2) iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF

The iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF offers access to the 20 largest U.S. companies.

iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF (TOPT)

• Fund Objective: Invests in the 20 largest U.S. companies by market capitalization within the S&P 500 index.

• Number of Holdings: 20.

• Top Three Holdings: Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT).

• Expense Fee: 0.20%.

The top 20 companies in the S&P 500 have contributed to more than two-thirds of the index's returns over the past three years.

The iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF (TOPT) and iShares Nasdaq Top 30 Stocks ETF (QTOP) are rebalanced quarterly.

This schedule allows the funds to adjust their holdings according to the top U.S. and Nasdaq-listed companies' current market values and rankings in their respective portfolios, ensuring alignment with their indices. These quarterly adjustments help the ETFs maintain their target exposure to the largest companies within their focus areas.​

(3) VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF

The VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX) is a new offering focusing exclusively on fabless semiconductor companies. These firms design, develop, and market chips while outsourcing manufacturing to third-party foundries like Taiwan Semiconductor.

This business model, which emerged in the 1980s, allows companies to concentrate on innovation and design without the massive capital expenditure required for manufacturing facilities. SMHX tracks the MarketVector US Listed Fabless Semiconductor Index, offering a more targeted approach than its broader counterpart, SMH.

To be included, companies must generate at least 50% of their revenue from fabless semiconductor operations. The ETF employs a modified market-cap-weighted methodology and rebalances quarterly. Key features of SMHX include:

1. Concentrated portfolio: Top 10 holdings represent 73.92% of total assets.

2. Top holdings: Nvidia (21.87%), Broadcom (14.78%), and Astera Labs (6.67%).

3. Expense ratio: 0.35%, matching SMH.

4. Current AUM: $9.43 million.

5. Average daily trading volume: Around 27,000.

6. There are no dividend distributions at present.

SMHX has shown promising momentum, up close to 10% since early October 2024. While it shares some holdings with SMH, SMHX's portfolio includes pure-play design companies that are absent from its broader counterpart.

The ETF's launch and early success reflect growing investor recognition of the fabless model's advantages. However, investors should note that both SMHX and SMH have a significant Nvidia-heavy skew. Those looking to mitigate single-stock risk in the semiconductor space might consider an equal-weighted fund as an alternative.

The ETF maintains a concentrated portfolio structure, similar to its older sibling, with its top 10 holdings representing 73.92% of total assets. While both funds feature Nvidia as their top holding, SMHX has a 21.87% allocation. 

The remaining holdings reflect SMHX's fabless focus, with Broadcom (AVGO) at 14.78% and Astera Labs (ALAB) at 6.67%. Other vital positions entail Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) (4.66%), Synopsys (SNPS) (4.68%), Qualcomm (QCOM) (4.59%), Marvell Technology (MRVL) (4.49%), Arm Holdings (ARM) (4.12%), Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) (4.10%), and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) (3.90%).

SMHX's portfolio includes pure-play design companies that are absent from its broader counterpart.

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated October 26, 2024 👋. The next edition will be published on November 02, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

The next edition of Closelook@US Stock Markets will be published on October 27, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

The next edition of Closelook@Hypergrowth will be published on October 30, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

A Closelook At This Edition

1. This Week's Action: Global Stocks In Consolidation Mode

2. Global Stock Markets: Comprehensive Overview Of 30 Global Stock Markets

3. Macro Insights: Bond Vigilantes Are Back

4. The ETF Portfolio: Some Good, Some Bad, Some Need Polishing

5. This Week's ETF Spotlight: Two New ETFs To Form The Core Of The Portfolio

6. Knowledge Corner: What Are Bond Vigilantes And Why Do They Matter?

7. Upcoming Transactions: 10 Days Until Election

8. Final Words: Presidents Come And Go, But This Election May Matter More Than Other Ones

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This Week's Action: Global Stocks In Consolidation Mode

The week spanning from Monday, October 21 to Friday, October 25, 2024, presented another consolidation week for the global bull market narrative.

The Dow Jones Global Index moved down, potentially setting up for another bull market leg later this year.

The long-term bull market channel was not violated. The index currently tests support around the 4940 - 4950 level and may even go lower to test the 4800 level.

Taking a very long-term view, the bull is already stretched. It has touched the decade-long upward-sloping upper trend line.

The index may be about to form a long-term bearish wedge. Right now, it appears to be incomplete, suggesting there is more upside to the bull narrative.

Global Stock Markets: Comprehensive Overview Of 30 Global Stock Markets

Argentina, Taiwan, Spain, Germany (DAX), and Hungary continue to be the five best-performing global stock markets outside the US, taking a one-year perspective.

The table below displays 36 global stock markets. Laggards are France, Thailand, and Mexico.

The only index in the red, the worst-performing index globally, taking a 1-year perspective, has been the Russian RTS Index.

Taking a 90-day view, laggards have become top performers, with the mainland Chinese and Hong Kong markets leading.

Argentina is the best-performing country outside China's mainland indices, followed by Thailand, the German MDax and Dax indices, and the Indonesian stock market.

Russia is still the worst performer. However, South Korea, the Tokyo Topix Index, the Austrian Traded Index, the Mexican Bolsa IPC Index, and the Indian Nifty Fifty indices have been negative during the last 90 days.

I expect another bull market leg to occur in China soon. I will be cutting China's exposure and selling on the anticipated rise.

I will be adding to the existing India positions. I expected another leg down in the Indian market first last week. This seems to be unfolding. I will be adding to the current positions on any meaningful dip.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index moved sideways/slightly lower during the past week. It looks primed for advancing later this year, which I also advise selling. There is resistance at the spring 2024 tops.

The index may see a new 52-week high, but the move looks like the final move up (for quite some time).

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Macro Insights: Bond Vigilantes Are Back

The bond market has started to vote early, sending a clear message ahead of the November 5 US presidential and congressional elections.

Since the Federal Reserve's September 17-18 meeting, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield has surged by 64 basis points to 4.26% before settling down slightly and closing at 4.24 %.

This significant increase reflects the Bond Vigilantes' concerns about Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish monetary policy and the potential for economic overheating.

Market Reaction and Analysis

The Bond Vigilantes appear to be voting against the Fed's recent actions, particularly the 50 basis point rate cut on September 18. Their concern stems from the perception that the economy is already running hot and further easing could lead to overheating.

This market reaction was not entirely unexpected. On September 2, Ed Yardeni predicted that positive economic indicators might unsettle the bond market.

In his September 22 commentary, he further highlighted the possibility of diverging yields, with the 2-year yield potentially decreasing due to Fed easing while the 10-year yield might rise on concerns about economic overheating.

Fiscal Policy Concerns and Challenges

The Bond Vigilantes' reaction may also reflect apprehension about future fiscal policies, regardless of which party wins the upcoming elections. Some are concerned that continued expansionary fiscal policies could further inflate the substantial federal budget deficit and fuel inflation.

The next administration will face significant fiscal challenges, particularly regarding debt servicing:

The next administration will face net interest outlays of over $1 trillion on the ballooning federal debt.

This underscores the growing burden of interest payments on the federal debt, likely influencing future fiscal and monetary policy decisions.

The ETF Portfolio: Some Good, Some Bad, Some Need Polishing

The ETF portfolio has moved slightly lower during the week after reaching an all-time in mid-October. It has been up since starting on 1 August 2024.

All ETFs except the two Indian ETFs and the China Kranes CSI Internet ETF trade higher than where I bought and recommended them.

I did not buy or sell any ETFs during the week. I want to add two new ETFs to the portfolio starting next week (see next section for more information on these ETFs):

1. iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF and

2. iShares Nasdaq Top 30 Stocks ETF.

This Week's ETF Spotlight: Two New ETFs To Form The Core Of The Portfolio

Blackrock has just launched three new exchange-traded funds, including two that offer exposure to the largest U.S. stocks.

(1) iShares Nasdaq Top 30 Stocks ETF

The iShares Nasdaq Top 30 Stocks ETF (QTOP.O) lets investors hold the 30 biggest non-financial stocks, including mega-cap tech. It has secured backing from the University of California's investing arm.

iShares Nasdaq Top 30 Stocks ETF (QTOP)

• Fund Objective: Invests in the 30 largest companies by market capitalization within the Nasdaq 100 index.

• Number of Holdings: 30.

• Top Three Holdings: Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT).

• Expense Fee: 0.20%.

The expense ratio is 0.20%. The holdings as of 24 October are:

(2) iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF

The iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF offers access to the 20 largest U.S. companies.

iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF (TOPT)

• Fund Objective: Invests in the 20 largest U.S. companies by market capitalization within the S&P 500 index.

• Number of Holdings: 20.

• Top Three Holdings: Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT).

• Expense Fee: 0.20%.

The top 20 companies in the S&P 500 have contributed to more than two-thirds of the index's returns over the past three years.

The iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF (TOPT) and iShares Nasdaq Top 30 Stocks ETF (QTOP) are rebalanced quarterly.

This schedule allows the funds to adjust their holdings according to the top U.S. and Nasdaq-listed companies' current market values and rankings in their respective portfolios, ensuring alignment with their indices. These quarterly adjustments help the ETFs maintain their target exposure to the largest companies within their focus areas.​

I want to add the two ETFs to the portfolio starting next week.

(3) iShares Nasdaq-100 ex Top 30 ETF

The iShares Nasdaq-100 ex Top 30 ETF (QNXT.O) will invest beyond the Nasdaq 100 behemoths to capture the growth of relatively more minor growth firms.

iShares Nasdaq-100 ex-Top 30 ETF (QNXT)

• Fund Objective: Invests in the 31st to 100th largest companies by market capitalization within the Nasdaq 100 index.

• Number of Holdings: 30.

• Top Three Holdings: Micron Technology (MU), Starbucks (SBUX), and Gilead Sciences (GILD).

• Expense Fee: 0.20%.

BlackRock recently said it had also launched two new funds centered on technology growth and artificial intelligence.

iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF (NYSEARCA:BAI)

• Fund Objective: Invests in a concentrated portfolio of 20-40 global AI and technology stocks across all markets.

• Number of Holdings: 34

• Top Three Holdings: Nvidia (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT).

• Expense Fee: 0.68%.

iShares Technology Opportunities Active ETF (NYSE:TEK)

• Fund Objective: Invests in global technology companies across semiconductors, software, hardware, internet, services, content and infrastructure, and new industries.

• Number of Holdings: 57

• Top Three Holdings: Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Apple (AAPL).

• Expense Fee: 0.75%.

BAI and TEK will be the latest ETFs to join several existing funds that are focused on AI and technology, including:

• KraneShares Artificial Intelligence and Technology ETF (AGIX)

• GX Artificial Intelligence & Tech ETF (AIQ)

• GX Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ)

• ALPS Disruptive Technologies ETF (DTEC)

• First Trust NASDAQ Artificial Intelligence and Robotics ETF (ROBT)

• Robo Global Artificial Intelligence ETF (THNQ)

• Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT)

I will discuss these ETFs in the next edition next week.

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated October 19, 2024 👋. The next edition will be published on October 26, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

The next edition of Closelook@US Stock Markets will be published on October 20, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

The next edition of Closelook@Hypergrowth will be pub…

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated October 12, 2024 👋. The next edition will be published on October 19, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

The next edition of the CloselookqUS Stock Markets will be published on October 13, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

A Closelook into This Edition

1. This Week's Action: …

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated October 05, 2024 👋.

A Closelook into This Edition

1. This Week's Action: A Bear's Nightmare is Coming True

2. Global Stock Markets: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Revisited

3. Macro Insights: Putting the Recession Story to Bed

4. The ETF Portfolio: …

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated September 28, 2024 👋.

A Closelook into This Edition

1. This Week's Action: Too Good to Be True?

2. Global Stock Markets: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

3. Seasonality Insights: October Can Be Challenging

4. The ETF Portfolio: China’s Stimulus and New All-Time Highs

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated September 21, 2024 👋.

Stay sharp on the markets with Closelook!

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