Thank you for reading this week’s edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated April 26, 2026 👋. The next edition will be published on May 3, 2026.

For the schedule of our other publications, please check the schedule at the end.

Table of Contents

1. This Week’s Action

2. Overview: The Global Market Map

3. The State

4. The State Continued: Regions & Sectors

5. What May Lie Ahead: Macro Setup

6. What May Lie Ahead: Technical Setup

7. The ETF Portfolio: What We Did

8. The ETF Portfolio: What We Plan To Do

9. Knowledge Corner — Opined

10. Upcoming Transactions: Be Informed

11. What May Go Wrong: Risk & Change Triggers

12. Final Words

(1) This Week’s Action

US indices made fresh all-time highs. Asian tech-heavy markets extended decisively while Europe and most emerging markets retreated.

Oil round-tripped its prior-week plunge, the dollar firmed, and semiconductors went vertical — an 18-session winning streak, the longest on record. None of this changes the wave count. All of it fits.

The Week at a Glance

Close of April 24, 2026 · Source: EODHD All-World EOD.

The wave-3 impulse off the March 30 low extended on the US and Asian semiconductor sides, while Europe and broader emerging markets paused. Read structurally, not narratively: the move is doing exactly what the count requires.

VEU pulled back from 81.63 to 80.27 on the week, a −1.67% retrace inside the steeper trend channel established in February 2025—no technical damage. The lower channel boundary near 76 remains untouched.

Chart 1 — VEU Across Four Timeframes

What Happened

The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,165.08 (+0.80% Friday, +0.6% for the week, fresh all-time high). Nasdaq at 24,836.60 (+1.63% Friday, +1.5% for the week, fresh all-time high — fourth consecutive weekly gain). Dow Jones diverged at 49,230.71 (−0.16% Friday, −0.4% for the week). Russell 2000 closed at 2,787.00 (+0.43% Friday). VIX at 18.71, up from 17.48 the prior week — volatility creeping but still historically benign.

The headline trades of the week were two: Intel surged +23% on the week to a fresh all-time high, finally surpassing the level it reached during the dot-com peak in 2000; Nvidia closed Friday with its market capitalization back above $5 trillion.

Week Winners

Asian semiconductor and tech-heavy markets led the global tape. Taiwan’s TWSE rose +5.78%, Korea’s Kospi +4.58%, Korea 200 +4.34%, Japan’s Nikkei +2.12% — directly capturing the upstream of the semiconductor rally that drove SMH +9.11% in USD terms. China held up better than Hong Kong: CSI 300 +0.86%, Shanghai Composite +0.70%, while Hang Seng softened −0.70%. In the US, semiconductors carried the tape almost alone.

SMH closed at 506.44, up +9.11% on the week. SOXX delivered an even bigger move, posting its 18th consecutive up day — a record since the ETF’s 2001 inception. Per a NYSE research note, semiconductors are now ~15.5% of the S&P 500’s market-cap weight and have contributed roughly 4.9 percentage points of the index’s 12.8% rally since March 30 — about 40% of the entire move.

Week Losers

Europe was broadly red. The DAX fell by −2.32%, Euro Stoxx 50 by −2.92%, CAC 40 by −3.17%, IBEX 35 by −4.29%, and MDAX by −5.33%. Eastern Europe was equally weak: WIG −3.36%, ATX −3.42%, BUX Budapest −3.56%. India’s Nifty 50 fell −1.87%, Australia’s ASX 200 −1.79%, Switzerland’s SMI −1.91%, Brazil’s Bovespa −3.09%, Mexico’s IPC −0.88%. The week’s deepest decline came from Indonesia: the Jakarta Composite Index fell −6.61%, with a -20.35% three-month return and -17.55% YTD Indonesia stands out as one of the clearest red zones globally. WTI crude completed a near-perfect round-trip, climbing back to 94.88 (+14.88% on the week) after the prior week’s −9.41% Friday plunge.

The contrast is the point: US new highs and Asian tech extension on top of a broad European/EM pullback; semis on a record streak, while software (IGV) stalled; oil reversing while the equity rally continued. This is the shape of a wave-5 extension on the leadership tape, meeting a brief, sharp wave-4-degree pause on the rest of the global tape.

(2) Overview: The Global Market Map

The global stock market map for the week of April 19–25 was clearly divided between strong Asia tech leadership, mixed China, and broad weakness across Europe, India, Australia, and parts of emerging markets. The strongest five-day gains came from the Taiwan Weighted Index +5.78%, the Kospi Composite +4.58%, the Kospi 200 +4.34%, and the Nikkei 225 +2.12%. The greenest part of the map was concentrated in North Asia, especially markets linked to semiconductors, AI, memory chips, and export-driven technology.

China was more mixed but still relatively resilient. The CSI China 300 rose +0.86%, while the Shanghai Composite and Shanghai Class A Index both gained +0.70%. However, the Shenzhen Class A and Shenzhen Composite both slipped −0.02%, and the Hang Seng Index fell −0.70%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped −0.78%. So the China/Hong Kong area was not a strong green zone; it was more of a neutral-to-slightly red zone, with mainland large caps outperforming Hong Kong and Shenzhen.

Europe was mostly red for the week. The DAX fell by −2.32%, the Euro Stoxx 50 declined by −2.92%, the CAC 40 lost by −3.17%, the IBEX 35 dropped by −4.29%, and the MDAX fell by −5.33%. Eastern Europe was also weak, with the WIG Index down 3.36%, the Austrian Traded Index down 3.42%, and the BUX Budapest Index down 3.56%. This suggests that European equities were under pressure broadly, not just in one country or sector.

Other global markets also showed stress. India’s Nifty 50 fell −1.87%, Australia’s ASX 200 dropped −1.79%, Switzerland’s SMI declined −1.91%, Mexico’s IPC lost −0.88%, and Brazil’s Bovespa fell −3.09%. The weakest market in the table was the Jakarta Composite Index, down −6.61%, with a very weak 3-month performance of −20.35% and YTD loss of −17.55%, making Indonesia one of the clearest red zones on the map.

The overall message: global equities were not uniformly strong; leadership was narrow and concentrated in Asian technology-heavy markets. Taiwan, Korea, and Japan’s Nikkei were the bright spots, while Europe, Indonesia, Brazil, India, and Australia were negative. North Asian tech markets light up the map, while Europe and emerging markets flash red.

The Macro Backdrop

Behind the regional dispersion sits a coherent macro story. The Iran-US peace track stalled this week: President Trump extended the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire indefinitely, but Vice President JD Vance canceled his planned trip to Pakistan after Tehran refused to attend the mediated talks. Iran reportedly seized two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz; the US blockade of Iranian ports remains in place. WTI responded mechanically, climbing back to $94.88 — a near-complete round-trip of the prior week’s plunge. The dollar firmed; the 10-year Treasury yield drifted to roughly 4.30%.

Q1 earnings season is reinforcing the structural bull case. Approximately 28% of S&P 500 companies have reported, and 80%+ have beaten both EPS and revenue estimates. The earnings growth rate keeps drifting higher each week of the season; analysts now model 18.6% earnings growth for full-year 2026.

The headline drama was Intel. The chip giant beat Q1 EPS and revenue, raised its outlook on the back of an aggressive AI strategy, and the stock surged +23% on the week to break above its 2000 dot-com peak — a 26-year price ceiling, finally cleared. NVIDIA retook the $5 trillion market cap mark on Friday’s session. Bitcoin held near 77,595 (essentially flat); gold softened to 4,725.40 (−3.16% W/W) on the dollar firming. The Department of Justice announced it would drop its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, removing one source of policy-process uncertainty heading into next week’s FOMC meeting.

Tech Thematics — The Intra-AI Divergence

The intra-tech divergence is the week’s most diagnostic data point. Semiconductors went vertical; software stalled. SOXX is up more than 11% over five sessions; IGV is down approximately 1% over the same span. Last week’s edition flagged the software bottom recovery as the tape's breadth signal. This week, that signal is on hold. The AI trade has narrowed back into infrastructure for now — a development that was discussed as a Section 11 trigger last week and is now visible in the price.

(3) The State

The roadmap comes into view. The wave count and the seasonal calendar are saying the same thing: a final push higher into late spring and summer, a sharp setback in late August through mid-October that aligns with both seasonal weakness and the historical midterm-year drawdown, and a year-end rally into 2027—three independent frameworks — Elliott structure, seasonality, and presidential cycle — point to the same calendar.

The Thesis

The bull market that began in autumn 2022 is in wave 3 of the larger degree, and wave 3 is extending. Inside that wave 3, the impulse off the March 30, 2026, low is sub-wave 5, and the rule of price equality between wave 1 and wave 5 of an extended wave 3 places its target meaningfully above the current price. The setback that follows lines up precisely with the historical midterm-year drawdown window and the seasonally weakest stretch of the calendar. The post-midterm rally that follows lines up with the strongest year of the four-year presidential cycle.

This is not a forecast for the next week. It is a roadmap for the next nine months.

Chart — The Larger-Degree Wave Count on VEU

The structure is clean enough to label without controversy:

• Wave 1 (larger): autumn 2022 → February 2023. The first impulse off the bear-market low.

• Wave 2 (larger): February 2023 → October 2023. The complex, extended sideways correction.

• Wave 3 (larger), in progress: October 2023 → ongoing. The extended impulse, now ~30 months in.

– sub-1: October 2023 → October 2024

– sub-2: October 2024 → April 2025

– sub-3: April 2025 → late February 2026

– sub-4: late February 2026 → March 30, 2026 (sharp and simple — alternation vs. the complex sub-2 ✓)

– sub-5: March 30, 2026 → in progress.

The rule of alternation between corrective waves — sub-2 was complex and time-consuming, so sub-4 should be (and was) sharp and brief — is the mechanism that confirmed the sub-4 reading at the March 30 low. The sub-5 impulse is now underway and accelerating.

Inside an extended third wave, the typical price relationship between sub-1 and sub-5 is equality. Sub-1 (October 2023 → autumn 2024) ran approximately 15 points on VEU. Sub-5, beginning at the March 30 low near 76, projects to roughly 91 under the equality rule. A 1.618 extension would project closer to 100. Section 6 develops the technical levels in detail.

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The VT/SPY ratio held its 30-week moving average for the third consecutive week and then flattened. Last week’s reading of “co-leadership rather than rotation” remains the regime, with the qualifier that the co-leadership took a one-week pause as the dollar firmed. The ratio did not break — it stopped expanding. That distinction matters: a rotation away would show up as a downside break of the 30W MA; pausing while the macro digests an oil rebound would show up as flattening above the 30W MA. The latter is what we have.

The trend channel is intact, the wave count is intact, and the breadth structure is intact. What changed this week is the velocity, not the direction.

(4) The State Continued: Regions & Sectors

Asia Pacific extended its leadership. Taiwan, Korea, and Japan rose 2-6% as the semiconductor capex narrative drove North Asian tech-heavy indices. This is structurally meaningful: Korea and Taiwan host the upstream of the global semiconductor supply chain — TSMC, Samsung memory, SK Hynix. Their leadership reflects, and amplifies, the same wave-5 sub-impulse driving SMH and SOXX in the US. China was mixed: mainland indices held (CSI 300 +0.86%, Shanghai +0.70%), while the Hang Seng softened by 0.70%.

Europe softened with the dollar firming. The euro weakened modestly against the dollar over the week, and EUR-denominated equity indices gave back roughly 2-5% in USD terms — DAX −2.32%, MDAX −5.33%, IBEX −4.29%, CAC −3.17%. Eastern Europe was equally weak. The April story for European equities remains the strongest in years; one week of dollar-driven cooling does not unwind it, but it does confirm that the European leg of the rally is a dollar-sensitive trade rather than an autonomous one.

Latin America gave back despite the oil rebound. Brazil fell 3.09% for the week, even as crude rebounded — a sign that the rotation out of risk in EM was broader than the energy bid could offset—Mexico’s IPC −0.88%. The April monthly gains for the region remain intact and substantial, but the weekly print is a clear pause.

EMEA and other emerging markets tracked the dollar move asymmetrically. Saudi Arabia and Norway held on to the energy bid. South Africa held; Turkey traded mixed. India was the most defensive of the major emerging-market exposures, with the dollar move weighing more than the energy bid helped — Nifty 50 −1.87%. Indonesia stood out as the week’s deepest global decline at −6.61%, a market with structural concerns of its own (three-month at−20.35%, YTD at −17.55%).

Sector rotation was narrow, not broad. Only two of nine global sectors posted weekly gains: Technology (IXN +3.5%) on the back of the semiconductor extension, and Energy (IXC +3.1%) on the oil rebound. Everything else gave back. Utilities (JXI +0.5%) held flat — a meaningful divergence within the defensive complex, with the rate-sensitive defensive catching a bid on modestly higher yields.

The cyclical complex paused, with Industrials (EXI −1.2%) and Materials (MXI −1.8%) both retreating. Consumer Discretionary (RXI −2.9%) and Financials (IXG −2.9%) were equally weak — Discretionary’s softness is notable given Amazon’s +3.47% Friday move, implying broad weakness across the rest of the consumer basket against a backdrop of consumer sentiment at 49.8, the lowest reading on record. Healthcare (IXJ −3.7%) was the deepest decliner of the week.

ACWI at −0.3% on the week summarises the picture: the global benchmark held nearly flat because Tech’s heavy index weight and Energy’s gains offset the broad weakness in everything else. The rally was real but narrow.

This is not a contradiction to the wave-5 thesis — it is the textbook signature of one. Late-stage extended-wave-3 sub-impulses commonly show leadership concentration rather than breadth. The highest-momentum corner of the tape (semis, AI infrastructure, North Asian Tech) carries the index while the bulk of the market consolidates after the strong impulse on March 30. Healthy wave 3s are broad; healthy fifth waves of extended thirds are narrow. The breadth question is for Wave 4 — not for sub-5 of Wave 3.

Tech Thematics — Watch the Software-Semis Spread

Within the tech thematic complex, the divergence between semiconductors and software is the week’s most diagnostic feature. SOXX +11% in five sessions; IGV essentially flat to slightly down. Last week’s bottom recovery in IGV, CLOU, and CIBR was the broadening signal — this week, that broadening pauses.

Two readings are possible. The constructive one: software is consolidating its sharp recovery ahead of the next leg, and Mag7 Software's earnings next week (MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN) become the fundamental catalyst that rebroadens the tape. The cautious one: semis are extending into a euphoric blow-off while software signals that the broader AI risk appetite is more selective than it appeared a week ago.

The earnings reports next Tuesday through Thursday will be the proximate test. The structural read does not depend on the resolution: wave-5 impulses commonly see leadership concentration before broadening into the larger top. Watch the relative line of IGV vs. SMH: a fresh higher low on IGV during semiconductor consolidation would re-confirm the broadening; a clean break of IGV’s 4-week low while semis hold would confirm the narrower path.

(5) What May Lie Ahead: Macro Setup

Fed meeting next week is the macro event of the quarter. Q1 earnings continue to deliver. Seasonality remains constructive for the next 8–10 trading days, then turns negative. The dollar-yield-oil triangle has firmed against ex-US for the moment; whether that persists is the macro question for May.

Money Temperature

The Money Temperature pipeline reads in the Transition zone this week — the same regime as the prior week, with mechanical inputs pulling in opposite directions. Higher oil and a firmer dollar push the score warmer; modestly higher yields and an uptick in VIX push it cooler. The net is a flat week-over-week reading that confirms the structural risk-on posture without signaling any shift toward overheating. A score below 75 leaves the framework constructive on equities. We begin reducing gross exposure as the score approaches 75-80 — not yet in play.

Central Bank Pulse

Fed: The April 29–30 FOMC meeting is the macro event of the quarter. Market pricing assumes a hold; the question is the characterization of the inflation and growth outlook in Powell’s press conference. Two crosscurrents to watch: the Q1 earnings beat rate and resilient retail sales argue against any dovish pivot; consumer sentiment at 49.8 — the lowest reading on record, below the GFC, COVID, and post-Russia-invasion lows — argues for one. Inflation expectations for the year ahead remain elevated at 4.7%. Fed nominee Kevin Warsh’s confirmation testimony was viewed as more hawkish than expected, and this has begun to seep into the yield curve. The DOJ dropping its Powell probe clears one process uncertainty.

ECB: The euro area’s dovish path remains intact. Dollar firming this week was less a hawkish-Fed story than a stalled-peace-talks story; the underlying ECB-Fed divergence supporting European equities remains structurally unchanged.

BoJ: Rate-hike expectations for the next BoJ meeting have continued to fade, consistent with the prior weeks’ read. The yen weakened modestly against the dollar.

PBoC: China’s Q1 GDP at 5.0% beat expectations. The PBoC’s accommodative stance continues without fresh stimulus. China-listed equities (MCHI) traded mixed on the week, sensitive to the dollar move and to the technology-export-control narrative.

The dollar-yield-oil triangle is the pivot. Last week’s ex-US leadership was anchored in a weakening dollar, falling oil prices, and stable yields. This week’s ex-US pause was anchored on a firming dollar, rebounding oil, and modestly higher yields. The mechanism is well-understood; the question for May is whether the peace-track stalling persists or resolves.

Macro Commentary

“The path of least resistance for the major US indices is still up. Fade rallies in defensives, lean into the trend in AI infrastructure, and recognize that the rotation thesis depends on the dollar — not on relative-value arguments alone.”

— Michael Hartnett, Bank of America Securities, “The Flow Show,” April 24, 2026

Hartnett’s note this week recommends curve steepeners, China, consumer cyclicals, and frames the AI-infrastructure trade as the dominant US risk-on expression. The framing aligns with this edition’s reading on two axes. First, the curve-steepener call presupposes the macro regime supports continued risk appetite — consistent with our wave-5 extension thesis. Second, the consumer-cyclical and China overweights are dollar-weakening trades, and they sit a step ahead of the price. They will work when the dollar rolls again; this week’s firming was a pause, not a regime change. Hartnett’s positioning aligns with the next leg of the rotation, not the current one.

Seasonality

Source: Per Barchart seasonality methodology until our own endpoint ships.

April 2026 is on track to close as one of the strongest months for VEU in its 16-year history. April has averaged +1.95% with a 76.47% hit rate; the historical best case was +8.70%. April 2026 month-to-date through April 24 is approximately +6.5%, comfortably in the top quartile of historical Aprils.

The seasonal tailwind fades quickly. May has averaged −1.16% with a 43.75% hit rate. June has averaged +0.43% with a 44% hit rate. The May–June window is historically the softest stretch for ex-US exposure. The seasonal map matches the wave count: a finishing impulse into late April / early May, a pause through May–June, a resumption higher through July–August.

The map then turns sharply negative. September is historically the worst month of the year for global equities. October in midterm-election years is statistically the most volatile month of the four-year presidential cycle. The seasonal soft window from late August through mid-October is well-documented; in midterm years, specifically, the average drawdown to the October low is approximately 17%, and post-midterm November is the strongest month of the four-year cycle.

This is the calendar that lines up with the wave count. Sub-5 of larger Wave 3 finishing into summer; larger Wave 4 forming through the seasonal soft window with the midterm overlay; larger Wave 5 launching from the post-midterm low into 2027. Three independent frameworks — Elliott structure, seasonal pattern, presidential cycle — point to the same nine-month roadmap.

(6) What May Lie Ahead: Technical Setup

Two-degree count, two projection rules. Sub-5 of larger Wave 3 underway since March 30; sub-1-equality projects roughly 91 on VEU; 1.618 extension projects toward 100. The intermediate resistance at 83 (channel top) and 85.20–87.90 (prior Fibs) are stations on the way, not destinations.

The Technical Reading

VEU is in sub-wave 5 of larger Wave 3, the third extended impulse from the October 2023 low. The rule of alternation confirmed sub-4 at the March 30 low (sharp and brief, the inverse of sub-2’s complex sideways pattern). The rule of equality between sub-1 and sub-5 of an extended Wave 3 places the price target at:

• Sub-1 length: approximately 15 points (October 2023 low ~44 → autumn 2024 high ~59, on VEU)

• Sub-5 equality target: ~76 + 15 = ~91 on VEU

• Sub-5 1.618 extension target: ~76 + 24 = ~100 on VEU

Intermediate resistance levels en route:

• ~83: upper trend channel

• 85.20: Fibonacci 1.272 extension from prior swing

• 87.90: Fibonacci 1.618 extension from prior swing

• ~91: sub-1 = sub-5 equality

• ~100: sub-5 = 1.618 × sub-1 extension

Main Chart

Key Levels

Current: 80.27 · Upper Channel: ~83 · Lower Channel: ~76 · Sub-5 Equality Target: ~91 · Sub-5 Extension Target: ~100 · Horizontal Support: 64.02

Technical Commentary

This week’s 1.67% on VEU is internal to sub-5 — a brief consolidation inside an unfolding impulse, not a trend-degree pause. The Slow Stochastic reading printed as extremely overbought the prior week; one sideways week that resets the indicator without breaking the channel is the textbook continuation pattern in a confirmed bull market. Coppock remains rising; the 30W moving average remains below price and is rising; ADX remains in a strong-trend reading.

The wave-5 sub-structure can itself be counted in five waves at one lower degree. The move off the March 30 low to the April 17 high reads cleanly as wave 1 of the sub-5 impulse. This week’s pause is sub-wave 2 of sub-5, and by the same alternation logic that anchored the larger reading, this sub-wave 2 should be sharp and brief, with sub-wave 3 of sub-5 then driving the next leg toward 85–87.

Hard invalidation: weekly close below 76. That level breaks the steep trend channel and breaks the wave count. A move below 76 would invalidate sub-5 in progress and force a rethink — likely to a more complex correction at the larger degree. Below 64.02 horizontal support, the entire wave-3 read from October 2023 is off the table.

Indicator Focus — Why an Overbought Pause Is Constructive

Last week’s edition flagged the Slow Stochastic at 95.46 / 97.06 as the headline technical tension. The diagnosis was: in a confirmed bull regime, extreme Stoch readings tend to produce sideways consolidations of 2–6 weeks, not immediate reversals. This week’s reading is one data point in that pattern — a one-week pause that reset internals without breaking price structure.

The Stoch behavior during this consolidation is the signal to watch. If Stoch resets toward the 40–60 zone while price holds above the 78 area, the wave-5 continuation is fully intact, and the next leg is the high-probability path. If Stoch fails to reset meaningfully and price rolls over, the alternative read (a more complex sub-4, or even larger, correction) gains weight.

Alignment Check

═══ Confluent Bullish — Roadmap Visible ═══

Three independent reads — wave structure, macro setup, seasonal calendar — align on the same nine-month picture. Sub-5 of larger Wave 3 finishing into late spring/summer, larger Wave 4 forming through the seasonal soft window in late August through mid-October with the midterm-year overlay, larger Wave 5 launching from the post-midterm low. The roadmap is testable, falsifiable, and has clear invalidation levels at every degree.

Risk: (1) break of steep-channel lower trendline at ~76 on VEU would invalidate sub-5 and force a rethink; (2) Fed meeting next week as a hawkish-surprise risk; (3) Mag7 earnings as a fundamental test of the AI infrastructure narrative; (4) Iran-Hormuz escalation as the geopolitical tail.

When the structural, macro, and seasonal frameworks align, the call is to position with the trend and respect the falsification levels. When they diverge, the call is to reduce gross. This week, they align — and they align across nine months, not just nine days.

(7) The ETF Portfolio: What We Did

Updates will be provided from the next edition onward.

(8) The ETF Portfolio: What We Plan To Do

Moves under active consideration — conditional on signal confirmation.

Updates will be provided from the next edition onward.

(9) Knowledge Corner — Opined

This Week’s Opined Topic: Price Is All That Matters

🔥 The stock market is disconnected from economic reality — and that’s perfectly fine.

📌 You don’t invest in the economy. You invest in the stock market.

These two worlds operate under different rules, rhythms, and psychologies. When people expect them to move together, confusion and bad decisions follow.

1. The Stock Market ≠ The Economy

The economy reflects what we experience daily:

• jobs and wages

• inflation and spending

• production, GDP, and living standards

It is slow, data-driven, and backward-looking.

The stock market is a forecasting machine, discounting the future long before it becomes visible in the real economy. Markets move on:

• expectations

• sentiment

• liquidity

• psychology

• and sometimes pure fear or euphoria

This is why markets mostly bottom during recessions and peak during economic “strength.” The turning points never appear in the headlines; they first appear in price. Waiting for economic confirmation guarantees arriving late.

2. Why Economic Models Fail in Markets

Traditional economics assumes equilibrium and rational actors. Financial markets are driven by herding, emotion, uncertainty, and crowd behavior.

Robert Prechter explains this in The Socionomic Theory of Finance: markets move according to feedback loops in social mood rather than cold logic.

Benoit Mandelbrot showed why the Efficient Market Hypothesis collapses in real markets:

• price distributions have “fat tails”

• volatility clusters

• extreme events happen far more often

• markets follow fractal, not linear, behaviour

In the economy: ⬆️ rising prices → ⬇️ less demand.

In stock markets: ⬆️ rising prices → ⬆️ more demand. Momentum. Breaking every traditional economic model.

Trying to analyze both systems with one toolkit guarantees mistakes.

3. “Markets Are Never Wrong.”

Jesse Livermore: “A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong. Opinions often are.”

Price is the only unquestionable truth. If your model says the market “shouldn’t be doing this,” it is a warning. The market does not bend to your worldview. It is the worldview of millions of participants, expressed in real time.

4. Fractals, Waves & Market Psychology

Mandelbrot’s fractal theory and Elliott Wave analysis converge on one conclusion:

👉 Markets are structured chaos, not randomness.

Price moves in waves. Human mood oscillates. Patterns repeat across minutes, days, decades, and centuries. Optimism expands in impulsive waves. Fear contracts in corrective waves. The rhythm is not perfect, but persistent — because human behavior is persistent.

5. What This Means for Investors

✔ Stop trying to time markets with economic data; it is too slow. ✔ Respect that markets move first and explain later. ✔ Analyze price, trend, liquidity, sentiment, and positioning. ✔ Don’t fight momentum — understand it. ✔ Recognize that psychology, not GDP, drives inflection points. ✔ And respect the tape.

The disconnect is not a flaw. It is the system working exactly as designed.

— This is the philosophical underpinning of what Sections 3 and 6 of this edition just did. The wave count, the equality projection, the alternation rule, and the seasonal overlay — these are price-first frameworks. They do not assume what GDP will print, what the Fed will do, or what consumer sentiment will read. They look at the structure of the tape and assume the tape, not the headline, contains the information.

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(11) What May Go Wrong: Risk & Change Triggers

The falsification test: what would invalidate Sections 3, 5, and 6 — and how we would know.

Macro Change Triggers

The Fed meeting on April 29–30 is the proximate macro event. A hawkish surprise — particularly any pivot in Powell’s framing of inflation toward “more persistent than expected” — would lift yields, firm the dollar further, and pressure the ex-US trade. The base case is hold-with-balanced-tone; any deviation gets weighted.

The Mag7 earnings cluster — Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon all report next week — is the proximate fundamental test. The AI capital-expenditure trajectory implied in their 2026 guidance is the bedrock of the semiconductor extension we have been tracking. A clear deceleration in capex guidance from any of the four would directly challenge the wave-5 read by removing the fundamental engine.

Technical Invalidation Levels

Sub-5 in progress (smaller degree): weekly close below 76 on VEU — break of steep channel lower trendline. Would invalidate sub-5 and frethink, requiring a more complex correction to a greater degree.

Sub-5 timing: sub-5 should not exceed sub-1 in time meaningfully. Sub-1 ran approximately twelve months. A sub-5 that ran four months without reaching the 91 equality target would itself raise structural questions — extended waves can stretch in time, but the equality rule applies in price, and time-stretched extensions without proportional price extension would warrant scrutiny.

Larger Wave 3 (full structure): weekly close below 64.02 horizontal support invalidates the entire wave-3 read from October 2023. This is the bright line below which the bull market itself comes into question.

Indicator Shift Triggers

Three indicator moves would flip the current read:

First, Coppock rolling from rising to topping — would flag larger-degree maturity, consistent with the Section 3 forecast that larger Wave 3 completes in summer 2026. Watch for this through May–July.

Second, RS vs SPY breaking decisively below zero — last week’s “co-leadership pause” reading remains the working call. A clear break below the relative-strength zero line would confirm that the pause has become rotation.

Third, ADX falling below 20 from a current strong-trend reading — would signal a transition from trending to ranging, consistent with sub-5 completion and a potential transition to the larger Wave 4 corrective phase.

Calendar Triggers

The roadmap itself is testable on the calendar:

• By end of June: if VEU has not made progress toward the 85–88 zone, sub-5 may be running out of momentum

• Late August through mid-October: if the seasonal/midterm-year setback does not materialise, the larger Wave 4 read is wrong and the bull may be running hotter than the count suggests

• Mid-October low: if the setback materialises but does not produce a definable low, larger Wave 4 may extend beyond its expected window

The thesis holds until one of these triggers fires. When they do, the next edition updates the read.

(12) Final Words

A quote, an event, a perspective — something to carry into next week.

“The way to build superior long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs. When you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig.”

— Stanley Druckenmiller

The framework that this edition has built — wave count plus seasonality plus presidential cycle, three independent reads aligning across nine months — is exactly the kind of confluence Druckenmiller had in mind. The work is in the analysis: identifying the moments when the frameworks line up, defining the falsification levels in advance, and being ready to take size when the alignment is real.

The frameworks aligned at the March 30 low. They align again now, at the start of sub-5 of larger Wave 3, with a roadmap visible through Q4. The discipline is to stay with the count while the count is working — and to respect the invalidation levels when, eventually, they fire.

The market made new all-time highs this week against a tape of stalled peace talks, an oil rebound, and one of the most extreme momentum readings in the history of semiconductor ETFs. None of this is consistent with conventional macro models. It is fully consistent with the price-first frameworks that Section 9 lays out. The disconnect is the system working as designed.

Sub-5 has weeks to run. Larger Wave 4 will come, on the calendar that aligns with seasonality and the midterm cycle. Larger Wave 5 will follow. The work is not to predict each week — it is to respect the structure across the months.

Thank you for reading. See you next Saturday.

Thank you for reading this week’s edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated April 19, 2026 👋. The next edition will be published on April 26, 2026.

For the schedule of our other publications, please check the schedule at the end.

Table of Contents

1. This Week’s Action

2. Overview: The Global Market Map

3. The State

4. The State Continued: Regions & Sectors

5. What May Lie Ahead: Macro Setup

6. What May Lie Ahead: Technical Setup

7. The ETF Portfolio: What We Did

8. The ETF Portfolio: What We Plan To Do

9. Knowledge Corner

10. Upcoming Transactions: Be Informed

11. What May Go Wrong: Risk & Change Triggers

12. Final Words

(1) This Week’s Action

The oil plunge unlocked Asia. Korea, Taiwan, and India led the global tape. Latin America — home to the major oil exporters — lagged. Europe solid. The Middle East is strong on the dividend from the Iran-Lebanon ceasefire.

The Week at a Glance

Close of April 17, 2026 · Source: EODHD All-World EOD.

The April rally has broadened exactly where it needed to: into the regions that were suppressed by elevated oil.

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Chart 1 — VEU Across Four Timeframes

Global stocks ex US continued their upswing. VEU is close to its ATH. A firm upward-sloping trend channel has formed.

Trend & Momentum Indicators (on VEU weekly)

Computed on VEU weekly closes through 2026-04-17. Source: EODHD daily bars aggregated weekly.

What Happened

The US market closed the week at new all-time highs — the S&P 500 reached 7,126.06 (+1.20% Friday, third straight weekly gain), Dow Jones at 49,447.43 (+1.79% Friday), and Nasdaq Composite at 24,468.48 (+1.52% Friday; +5.9% for the week). Russell 2000 gained 2.11% on Friday to 2,776.90. VIX closed at 17.48, down 2.56% — the lowest volatility reading in weeks.

Week Winners

The rally wasn’t confined to the US. VEU closed at 81.63 (+1.39% Friday), with ex-US regional ETFs participating in the broad risk-on.

Week Losers

This is the third consecutive week of synchronized US and ex-US strength — a structurally different setup than the US-only leadership phases of 2024.

(2) Overview: The Global Market Map

The week’s dominant driver was geopolitical: Iran’s declaration that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open to commercial shipping, following the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. WTI crude plunged −9.41% on Friday alone to 82.59, removing the energy-shock tail risk that had overhung the market for weeks.

Semiconductors led the tech rally — SMH closed at 464.16, up 10 consecutive days, at a new 52-week high. Q1 earnings season is reinforcing the move: 88% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far have beaten EPS estimates, versus the 5-year average of 78%, with earnings surprises running 10.8% above estimates.

Bitcoin participated in the risk-on bid at around 77,250 (+3.47% Friday), gold also firmed to 4,879.60 (+1.48%), a combination that typically signals broad liquidity expansion rather than defensive rotation.

Sorted by 1W % descending · All returns in USD (unhedged) · Close of 2026-04-17

Country & Regional ETFs

Our proprietary indices confirm the tape. CL-Rubin Build-Out 100 closed at 6,055.90, up +6.72% on the week and +26.08% over the past month — the AI infrastructure trade running hot. CL-Euro-AI Sovereign 50 at 1,336.94 added +6.62% weekly and +10.50% monthly, with European AI names keeping pace.

CL-AW25 Agentic Winners at 1,006.47 were up +6.54% weekly and +2.10% monthly. CL-HALO Growth 100 at 2,192.21 posted +3.22% weekly but only +0.55% monthly — and that pattern is exactly what HALO is designed to do.

HALO rallies when the broader market is weak (it did so in March during the consolidation) and pauses during euphoric risk-on phases. It is working as intended: a defensive rotator within the portfolio, not a race car.

Global Sector ETFs

The cleaner read on the week is in the country and thematic ETFs. South Korea (EWY) +9.80%, Taiwan (EWT) +8.16% — Asian oil importers who were suppressed by the March oil price spike have now released.

Software and cloud, which had drawn down hard in March, recovered sharply: ARKK +14.35%, IGV +13.94%, CLOU +11.93%, CIBR +9.45% — each of these with essentially zero 1-month return.

Tech Thematic ETFs

Source: closelook.net

That’s the classic bottom-building pattern: violent recovery off a completed consolidation. On the month, Austria (EWO) +14.74%, Italy +10.02%, Brazil +12.12%, Chile +11.92% confirm the rally has breadth well beyond the AI megacap leaders.

This is not a narrow trade. The only clean losers were Energy (IXC), −3.92% on the week and −4.45% on the month, a direct reflection of the oil plunge, and Utilities (JXI), −2.23% weekly as rate-sensitive defensives rotated out.

Source: closelook.net

(3) The State

The March consolidation is over. The bull trend is back — confirmed by structural price action, participation breadth, and the removal of the geopolitical tail risk that had kept a lid on global risk appetite.

The Thesis

Chart — VEU & SPY Overlay

VEU at 81.63 is trading in the steeper trend channel that has defined the path since February 2025 — materially different (steeper, better-defined) than the Feb-2024-to-Feb-2025 channel that preceded it.

VXUS tracks VEU closely, with a spread-neutral view, arguing that small-caps ex-US are participating rather than lagging — a breadth signal, not narrow leadership.

Chart — VT/SPY Ratio

The VT/SPY ratio is holding above its 30-week moving average for the third consecutive week. Over the past three weeks, the US and ex-US have rallied together — the ratio is stable, not expanding aggressively, suggesting a co-leadership regime rather than a pure ex-US rotation.

That’s a subtle but important distinction: the prior Oct-2023-to-Feb-2025 cycle was characterized by VEU outperforming SPY on a relative basis. The current cycle shows both rising together.

(4) The State Continued: Regions & Sectors

Asia Pacific led the week decisively. Korea (EWY) gained +9.80%, Taiwan (EWT) +8.16% — the two Asian economies most exposed to elevated oil prices via their import dependence, now released by the Iran peace dividend and the Hormuz reopening. Japan (EWJ) added modestly, +2.34%; Australia (EWA) +1.24%. Monthly, Taiwan and Korea both sit at +13–14%, confirming this is structural leadership, not a one-week bounce.

Regional Deep-Dive

Europe participated solidly without leading. VGK +2.31% weekly; the standouts at the country level are Germany (EWG) +3.82% weekly / +6.01% monthly and Austria (EWO) +14.74% monthly — the continent’s biggest monthly gainer, a quiet story since Austria is rarely in the headlines.

The laggards at the periphery — Italy (+10.02% monthly), Spain (+8.55%), Belgium (+8.10%) — caught up sharply, which is constructive for breadth. France, the Netherlands, and Switzerland all +2–3% weekly, a synchronized participation rather than narrow leadership.

Latin America’s story shifted this week. The region’s monthly return is outstanding — ILF +10.55%, Brazil +12.12%, Chile +11.92%. But the weekly numbers are flat or negative (Brazil: −0.41%, Argentina: −0.50%, Mexico: −0.06%). That is profit-taking after a three-week run, not thesis invalidation.

Chile held +5.94% weekly, breaking from the regional pattern. Latin America’s April story is already largely told — the question for the next 4-8 weeks is whether commodity-sensitive names can sustain their gains now that oil has reset lower.

Emerging markets ex-LatAm carried the rally elsewhere. India +3.93%, China (MCHI) +3.69% recovering, Indonesia +3.38%, Thailand +0.35%. Even Israel (EIS) +3.36% weekly, +6.59% monthly — despite being the epicenter of the geopolitical tension that defined March, now resolved. South Africa +3.44%, Turkey +3.07%, Saudi Arabia +2.27%. EMEA is broadly participating. This is the most structurally broad regional tape in months.

The sector story this week is structurally clean. Semiconductors were the single most powerful story — SMH closed at a new 52-week high of 464.16, up 18% over two weeks, with 10 consecutive up days. That’s a momentum signature typically seen early in secular bull moves, not at the end of them. Technology (IXN) led the global sector table. Industrials and Materials participated on the cyclical side. Energy (IXC) lagged sharply as WTI crude plunged 9.41% on Friday alone — the structural break of the stagflation narrative.

Defensives (Staples KXI −0.12%, Utilities JXI −2.23%, Healthcare IXJ +1.29%) were clear underperformers as money rotated into risk — the classic risk-on signature. Energy (IXC −3.92%) was the week’s outlier loser, directly mapping to the oil plunge. But the contrast between Technology (+8.14%), Discretionary (+5.26%), and Financials (+3.44%) on the offensive side confirms this is a broad-based rotation, not a narrow trade. Materials and Industrials participating at +1.4–1.6% weekly rounds out the cyclical leadership. HALO’s monthly pause (+0.55% M/M) is consistent with this regime — defensive rotators are designed to pause during risk-on phases, and they are doing exactly that.

Tech Thematics — The Breadth Signal

Within the 7 tech thematics, semiconductors (SMH +16.95% monthly) remain the trend leader at a 52-week high. But the more telling signal this week is the software and cloud bottom recovery: IGV +13.94%, CLOU +11.93%, CIBR +9.45% — each with essentially zero 1-month return after a hard drawdown in March.

ARKK +14.35% weekly confirms the most-beaten-down disruptor names are being bought. This is the single most important breadth development of the week: the AI trade is no longer limited to infrastructure. Software joins the rally from a completed consolidation, which structurally broadens the AI thesis going into Q1 earnings for the major software names. The question for the next 4-8 weeks is whether IGV and CLOU can follow through beyond the bottom recovery into a proper new trend — the technical setup after a complete March-drawdown-round-trip in 5 trading days needs follow-through confirmation.

Chart — Regional / Thematic Focus

(5) What May Lie Ahead: Macro Setup

The Iran peace dividend is the dominant macro fact. Q1 earnings strength is secondary. Seasonality tailwind continues for one more week, then shifts. Dollar weakness remains the ex-US tailwind.

Money Temperature

Score: 62 🟡 Transition

The Money Temperature pipeline, scoring 8 macro instruments across rates, credit, FX, and commodities, sits at 62 this week — in the “Transition” zone. The yellow reading indicates the macro regime is neither cold (deflation/credit stress) nor overheated (stagflation/tight liquidity).

It is in transition — and the direction of transition matters more than the absolute number. Given this week’s moves — WTI down 9% on Friday, credit spreads almost certainly compressing as Iran tensions ease, risk assets across the board rallying, the dollar weaker — the read is a transition toward warmer, not cooler.

A score of 62 in a regime transitioning up is the classical setup for late-cycle risk-on: constructive for equities but approaching the zone where valuation and leverage become tactical concerns—nothing to act on at 62. At 75+, we start thinking about reducing gross.

Central Bank Pulse

Fed: Market pricing continues to assume the next rate move is down, not up. The 10-year yield at 4.24% reflects a market that sees no immediate inflation risk despite the rally — the oil plunge reinforces this disinflationary read. Fed Chair Powell and multiple regional Fed presidents are scheduled to speak next week; no major policy signals expected unless macro data surprises.

ECB: The euro area’s dovish path continues to support European equities. The ECB-Fed divergence remains the dominant FX-equity interplay for ex-US exposure, with the dollar weaker and EUR-denominated assets benefiting from the twin effects of local central bank easing and reduced currency headwinds.

BoJ: Rate hike expectations for the April BoJ meeting have faded further, supporting Japanese equities and keeping the yen weaker — a tailwind for Japanese exporters (which dominate VPL’s Japan weight).

PBoC: China’s economy continues to stabilize with Q1 GDP at 5.0%, beating 4.5% in the prior quarter. Industrial production strength remains; retail sales are softer. PBoC maintains an accommodative stance without providing fresh stimulus.

Key divergence: the Fed-ECB-BoJ spread continues to anchor dollar weakness — the fundamental tailwind underneath VEU’s leadership structure.

Macro Commentary

“Hyperscaler stocks are leading the charge since the stock market bottomed on March 30.”

— Dr. Edward Yardeni, Yardeni Research Morning Briefing, April 15, 2026

Yardeni’s April 15 read aligns on three axes with the Confluent Bullish verdict from Section 6. First, the AI-infrastructure leadership has broadened, not narrowed — hyperscalers drive the US tap. At the same time, the SMH printed a fresh 52-week high, exactly the pattern Section 4 identifies via the software/cloud bottom-recovery (IGV, CLOU, CIBR).

Second, Yardeni’s observation that Q1 earnings have delivered a fresh record print for S&P 500 EPS matches the fundamental support leg of this edition’s thesis — the 88% beat rate isn’t sentiment, it’s earnings. Third, his framing of “FOMOOP” — fear of missing out on peace — captures the Middle East de-escalation tailwind precisely. The only mismatch is that Yardeni remains US-centric. Our read extends his bullish thesis to a co-leadership regime where ex-US is not lagging but participating.

Seasonality

VEU monthly seasonality (16-year history). Current month highlighted.

Source: Per Barchart seasonality methodology until our own endpoint ships.

April is historically the strongest month for VEU — a 76.47% hit rate and a 1.95% average return over 16 years, with a best case of +8.70%. April 2026 is tracking at +8.70% month-to-date through April 17 — matching the historical best case and putting this month firmly in the top quartile of historical Aprils.

The tailwind fades quickly: May has averaged −1.16% with only 43.75% hit rate. Seasonal setup for next week remains constructive; setup for May demands caution. June is similarly weak (+0.43%, 44% hit). The May-June window is historically the softest stretch for ex-US exposure — not a reason to exit, but a reason not to add aggressively during typical seasonal weakness.

(6) What May Lie Ahead: Technical Setup

VEU in wave 5 of the larger third impulse — upper channel test meets prior ATH resistance zone. Impulse wave patterns intact; overbought normal in bull regime.

The Technical Reading

VEU is tracing clear impulse wave patterns — reading as wave 5 of the larger third impulse from the October 2022 low. A new steeper trend channel has been established since February 2025, with breakaway gaps confirming the regime change. Price is now at resistance at prior highs, zone around 83.

Overbought on Slow Stochastic (95.46 / 97.06) — but in a confirmed bull market, overbought on Stochastic is a normal state, not an actionable signal. Targets sit at ATH Fib ratios: 1.272 extension around 85.20, 1.618 extension around 85.20, 1.618 extension around 87.90.

Main Chart

Key Levels

Current: 81.63 · Upper Channel: ~83 · Lower Channel: ~76 · Horizontal Support: 64.02 · Fib 1.272: 85.20 · Fib 1.618: 87.90

Technical Commentary

The wave structure reads cleanly as wave 5 of the larger third impulse from October 2022. Three strong upleg impulses separated by two corrective phases — exactly the Elliott pattern that calls for a fifth wave extension. The breakout from February 2026 established a steeper trend channel than the prior Feb-2024-to-Feb-2025 channel, with two visible breakaway gaps confirming the regime shift.

Price is now pressing against the upper channel around 83, which coincides with the prior all-time high zone — the first significant technical resistance since the October 2023 low. The overbought Slow Stochastic at 95.46 is the headline tension. In a confirmed bull regime — and Coppock-confirmed bull, rising 30W MA, ADX trending — extreme Stochastic readings typically sustain for three to six weeks before a meaningful pullback materializes. The more diagnostic signal is Stoch behavior on the next consolidation: if the indicator resets toward 40-60 without price breaking the lower channel (~76), the wave-5 continuation stays intact.

Fibonacci extensions from the October 2023 swing low project initial targets at 85.20 (1.272) and 87.90 (1.618). Both zones coincide with major horizontal resistance from prior high regions — wave-5 completions commonly align with these structural levels. A weekly close below 76 (steep channel lower trendline) would invalidate the wave-5 read and open the path to 64.02 horizontal support. That remains the hard line below which the thesis fully unwinds.

Indicator Focus — Slow Stochastic in a Confirmed Bull

The Slow Stoch reading at 95.46 is the week’s headline technical tension. The cleaner read: look at prior VEU episodes where Slow Stoch hit 95+ while Coppock was rising and 30W MA distance was positive. In such regimes, extreme Stoch readings do not produce immediate reversals — they produce consolidations lasting 2-6 weeks, after which the trend resumes.

Drawdowns during these consolidations have historically been modest (−3% to −5%). Current setup aligns with the continuation scenario given the breadth confirmation (SMH at new ATH, US and ex-US rallying together, VIX falling), rather than the reversal scenario. But the Stoch reading is the tell that will confirm which path — watch the next 2-3 weeks.

Alignment Check

═══ Confluent Bullish — all three independent reads aligned ═══

Risk: (1) break of steep-channel lower trendline (~76) on VEU, (2) collapse of Iran-Lebanon ceasefire would spike oil and hit risk assets, (3) May seasonal weakness begins in 10 trading days.

Three independent reads — technical, macro, seasonal — aggregated into one verdict. When all three align, position sizing matters. When they diverge, risk management matters. This week, they align.

(7) The ETF Portfolio: What We Did

Updates will be provided from the next edition onward.

(8) The ETF Portfolio: What We Plan To Do

Moves under active consideration — conditional on signal confirmation.

Updates will be provided from the next edition onward.

(9) Knowledge Corner

This Week’s Topic: SMHX vs SMH vs Rubin Build-Out Ex-US

Three different ways to play the non-US semiconductor ecosystem — and the differences matter more than the marketing suggests.

SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) holds 25 of the largest global semiconductor names, market-cap-weighted. The US dominates the allocation — Nvidia alone is the largest holding — because the largest companies in the space are US-listed. Non-US exposure is real but concentrated: TSMC, ASML, Samsung via ADRs, a handful of Japanese equipment names. A “global semiconductor” label that is, in practice, majority US-driven. At its 52-week high of 464.16 this week, SMH has delivered 31.3% annualized over the trailing 10-year period.

SMHX (Themes Semiconductor ETF) takes a different cut — actively managed, concentrated, with deliberate tilts toward smaller and mid-cap names that SMH’s cap-weighting underrepresents. For investors seeking more equal exposure to the equipment chain (Tokyo Electron, SUSS MicroTec, Advantest) than to US megacaps, SMHX is the closer fit. A higher expense ratio and lower liquidity than SMH are the trade-offs. SMHX removes the fab exposure by focusing on fabless companies that outsource production — an intellectual-property-and-innovation tilt rather than a manufacturing one.

Rubin Build-Out Ex-US is the Closelook construction: filter the Rubin Build-Out 100 universe down to non-US-domiciled names and equal-weight the result. The result is a cleaner read on the ex-US AI supply chain — no Nvidia concentration, no US-listed distortion, deliberate equal-weight exposure to the physical-layer players.

The practical read: SMH for the mainstream AI trade (dominated by US megacaps), SMHX for a tilt away from those megacaps within the sector, Rubin Build-Out Ex-US for the purest non-US AI-infrastructure exposure. Each answers a different question. The framing shifts from “how do I own semiconductors” to “what part of the semiconductor chain, in what geography, with what concentration profile.” This week’s SMH move to a 52-week high makes the question more than academic — if the AI build-out rally broadens further, the ex-US tilt will likely outperform the megacap-heavy SMH.

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(11) What May Go Wrong: Risk & Change Triggers

The falsification test: what would invalidate Sections 5 and 6 — and how we’d know.

Macro Change Triggers

These are the moments when the macro read may need to be updated.

Source: Economic calendar and earnings confirmations. Directions reflect the expected impact on the current Confluent Bullish thesis.

Technical Invalidation Levels

The hard lines on VEU:

Primary invalidation: Weekly close below 76 — break of steep channel lower trendline. This would invalidate the wave-5 continuation read and signal that the current rally is completing rather than extending.

Structural: Break of 64.02 horizontal support — below this level, the entire wave-structure read from October 2022 is off the table. This is the bright line between “normal correction within a bull” and “bear-market confirmation.”

Indicator Shift Triggers

Three indicator moves from the Section 1 grid would flip the current reading:

First, Coppock rolling from rising to topping would flag regime maturity — not the end of the bull, but the start of the late innings. Watch for this in the next 4-8 weeks if the Stoch-driven consolidation discussed in Section 6 actually materializes. Second, RS vs SPY dropping below zero — currently the co-leadership regime has held, but a shift to US-only leadership would change the ex-US-specific narrative of this newsletter.

Third, ADX falling below 20 from a current strong-trend reading would signal a transition from trending to ranging, demanding a different tactical playbook (position sizing down, wider stops, waiting for a breakout rather than trend-following).

(12) Final Words

A quote, an event, a perspective — something to carry into next week.

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.”

— Sir John Templeton

The ex-US bull that we’ve been tracking through this edition was born in a moment that, at the time, looked nothing like a beginning. October 2022 — the month VEU bottomed at 44, down 35% from its 2021 high. Sentiment surveys showed record bearishness on international equities.

The consensus view was that ex-US had underperformed structurally for over a decade and would continue to do so. Capital had been flowing into US indices for years on end. Nobody wanted to own Europe, Japan, or emerging markets.

That was the moment of maximum pessimism — Templeton’s born-on-pessimism phase — and it marked the low. What followed was three years of grinding, consolidating, and an often-doubted recovery that brought us to the current reading. VEU at 81 is no longer a contrarian trade. It is a trade with broadening participation, institutional flows, and published research pieces like this one.

That doesn’t make the bull wrong. What it does is mark where we are in Templeton’s sequence. We are still in the skepticism-to-optimism range — not euphoria, not yet. Sentiment hasn’t fully flipped. Most US-based portfolios remain structurally underweight ex-US. Allocation surveys show the rotation is underway but far from complete.

The danger zone is euphoria. The three-week synchronized rally, record highs in US indices, semiconductor ETFs at new highs, and this week’s Iran peace dividend have collectively pulled us closer to that zone. Not there yet — but closer. Section 11’s falsification tests are how we’ll know when to step back. Section 6’s Confluent Bullish verdict is how we stay in for the meantime.

Thank you for reading. See you next Saturday.

Annex — Further Reading at Closelook

Suggested navigation across Closelook’s own work. Not external — everything below lives at closelook.net.

Indices & Frameworks

• Rubin Build-Out 100 — 100 stocks, 18 sectors, AI infrastructure (closelook.net/indices/rubin)

• HALO Growth 100 — Physical-world growth, AI-safe sectors (closelook.net/indices/halo)

• Euro-AI Sovereign 50 — European AI sovereignty play (closelook.net/indices/euro-ai)

• Agentic Winners 25 — Tactical agentic infrastructure index (closelook.net/lab/agentic)

• Money Temperature — 8-instrument macro regime scoring (closelook.net/lab/temperature)

• Cointegration Monitor — Engle-Granger pairs + cascade tracker (closelook.net/lab/cointegration)

• ABR Framework — Agent Beneficiary Ratio for AI disruption (closelook.net/research/abr-framework)

Portfolios

• Global ETFs — The portfolio tracked in this newsletter (closelook.net/portfolios/global-etfs)

• AI Build-Out — Rubin-index-aligned single-stock portfolio (closelook.net/portfolios/ai-buildout)

• Hypergrowth — 16 AI-native names + covered-calls layer (closelook.net/portfolios/hypergrowth)

• Global Tech 50 — Non-US tech, passive long-horizon (closelook.net/portfolios/global-tech-50)

• Derivatives — Covered calls, cash-secured puts overlay (closelook.net/portfolios/derivatives)

Editorial

• Weekly Signal — 9-dimensional market regime scorecard (closelook.net/weekly)

• Daily Pulse — Daily market notes archive (closelook.net/pulse)

• Research Dossiers — Deep-dive reports on themes and names (closelook.net/research)

• Closelook 101 — Concepts, frameworks, methodology (closelook.net/101)

• Glossary — Terms, definitions, cross-references (closelook.net/glossary)

Publishing Schedule

Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated November 23, 2024 👋. The next edition will be published on November 30, 2024.

The next edition of Closelook@US Stock Markets will be published on November 24, 2024.

The next edition of Closelook@Hypergrowth will be published on November 27, 2024,

A Closelook At This Edition

1. This Week's Action: Global Stocks - Two Tales of Stock Market Action

2. Global Stock Markets: Comprehensive Overview Of 36 Global Stock Markets

3. Crypto Crazy: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana

4. The ETF Portfolio: Continued Rebalancing

5. This Week's ETF Spotlight: VanEck Sustainable Future of Food UCITS

6. Knowledge Corner: MAHA

7. Upcoming Transactions: More Rebalancing Ahead

8. Final Words: The DOGE Initiative May Calm Bond Vigilantes

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(1) This Week's Action: Global Stocks In Retreat Mode

The week spanning from Monday, November 18 to Friday, November 22, 2024, displayed two different sets of stock market behavior.

While global stock markets outside the US were flat on aggregate on the week, the US stock markets headed north. While crypto assets move significantly higher, the Mag-7 turned into the Drag-7.

Strongest Performers

• Bitcoin led with the highest YTD return of 134.4% and the most substantial weekly gain of 10.3%

• The Nasdaq shows the best YTD performance among traditional indices at 26.6%. but was the worst of the four leading stock market indices, adding only 1.7 %.

• Oil had a strong week with a 6.3% gain but remains slightly negative for the year.

Traditional Indices

• All major stock indices show positive weekly gains, ranging from 1.7% to 4.5%.

• The Russell 2000 outperformed other stock indices for the week with a 4.5% gai.n.

• The 10-year Treasury yield remained stable at 4.41% with minimal YTD. movement.

The Dow Jones Global Index rose about 1 % for the week. The index could not break above the downward-sloping upper consolidation channel trendline.

Price action still looks like a consolidation/correction inside a bull market to me and not like the start of a reversal and a significant top. The long-term bull channel is still intact.

The index has lost about 0.5 percent in the month. It has been down 2 percent in the last 30 days. It is up 14,07 % YTD and 20,49 % in a 52-week perspective.

While the odds still favor another rate cut in December in the US, continued US rate cuts in 2025 seem more unlikely. The ECB will likely cut rates more aggressively.

This should continue to strengthen the US Dollar and keep the downward pressure on the Euro.

Looking at the global stock markets, ex, the US, the situation worsens. The chart above shows the Vanguard FTSE All World Ex US ETF. The ETF failed to make an ATH in 2024.

It has declined much more than the Dow Jones Global Index, which is heavily skewed toward the US. The index is sitting on a significant support level. If it breaks, further declines may lie ahead.

(2) Global Stock Markets: Comprehensive Overview Of 36 Global Stock Markets

Argentina, Hungary, Taiwan, Germany (DAX), and India continue to be the five best-performing global stock markets outside the US, taking a one-year perspective.

The table below displays 36 global stock markets. Laggards are Russia, Mexico, South Korea, France, and the German and Dutch midcap indices.

Until two weeks ago, the Russian RTS Index was the only index in the red and the worst-performing one globally, taking a 1-year perspective. As of 22 November 2024, Mexico, South Korea, and France have turned negative, too.

Taking a 5-day view, 17 of the 36 stock markets covered traded up for the week. Argentina was the best performer, followed by South Korea. Russia cratered.

The Nifty Fifty Index in India was up 1.5 % on the week. The Equal Weight Nifty Fifty index is sitting on a critical support level. I expect the market to move higher from here and resume its uptrend.

The same applies to the Nifty Fifty Index itself. I see India as a net beneficiary of the Trump policy.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index was unable to reach above the consolidation trendline. It sits on the lower bull trend line, which has been developing since the start of the bull in late 2022.

A break below the trendline may indicate that a temporary end of the European bull market is ahead.

The same applies to the MSCI Eurozone ETF. It failed to make an ATH. The ETF has already broken below that bull trend line.

The same also applies to the German MDAX index. A move toward the 26000 to 25000 level seems likely.

The SDAX is negative YTD now. 13300 is a critical support level. A break below the level seems likely to me. The downtrend is firmly intact.

The ASEAN stock markets have moved in the opposite direction to the European markets recently. I expect this to continue. I also see the ASEAN countries as net beneficiaries of the Trump policy shift.

Various ASEAN indices hit the upper trend line and consolidated in the past weeks. The consolidation should be in its final stage or may have ended already. I expect the bull market to resume shortly/or have resumed already.

In contrast to the various ASEAN countries, Japan has trended down since the summer of 2024. I doubt there will be another attempt to reach the 42000 level on the Nikkei index soon.

Chart-wise, the UK stock market looks better to me now. The long-term bullish trend is still intact.

We may see a year-end rally as the consolidation/correction looks relatively complete.

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(3) Crazy Crypto

Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana have risen sharply since the Trump election victory. I believe that in the short-term they are due for a pause.

(1) Bitcoin

Bitcoin may have completed five waves up. A move above 100.000 USD may be the short-term top.

I do not see the top of the fifth wave as the top of the Bitcoin bull market, as I expect an extended impulse wave with nine legs to unfold.

I sold all my Microstrategy positions above 500 USD. Options on the IBIT BItcoin fund are a better way to embark on a leveraged Bitcoin trade, in my opinion. I only trade selling options - selling puts to play a move up and selling cally to play a move down.

Ether is still 700 points below the spring 2024 peak. I expect some catch-up to occur. But Ether looks vulnerable compared with Solana.

Solana moved past the spring 2024 highs and reached above the old ATH. I expect Solana to move close to the 300 USD level soon.

The Coin 50 index is close to its ATH. When Bitcoin consolidates, several altcoins should begin to move up considerably.

I am currently monitoring which altcoins may be suitable for a risk-on investment.

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(4) The ETF Portfolio: Continued Rebalancing

From now on, I will detail the performance of the four investor portfolios in a weekly post in the Daily Brief section of the newsletter.

This will soon entail real-time trading signals. The next update will be on Monday, November 25.

The ETF portfolio developed nicely during the week. I made three transactions.

I added to the Solana position. I rebought the INQQ Internet India ETF and I bought an initial position in the VanEck Sustainable Future of Food UCITS - a beneficiary of the Trump MAHA policy.

The two Indian ETFs and the Roundhill Weight Loss ETF are the biggest losers. The Bitcoin ETF has been the best performer.

Selling the Gold Miners ETF and replacing it with a Solana ETP proved to be correct. The S&P Capital markets ETF, a recent buy, developed nicely. The Russel Midcap Pure Growth ETF is up more than 15 percent since I bought it.

(5) This Week's ETF Spotlight: VanEck Sustainable Future of Food UCITS

The VanEck Sustainable Future of Food UCITS ETF focuses on companies pioneering sustainable food solutions.

The VanEck Sustainable Future of Food UCITS ETF tracks the MVIS Global Future of Food ESG Index. The MVIS Global Future of Food ESG Index provides access to companies worldwide engaged in developing and producing sustainable food.

The included securities are filtered based on ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) criteria.

The ETF's total expense ratio (TER) is 0.45% annually. The VanEck Sustainable Future of Food UCITS ETF is the only ETF that replicates the MVIS Global Future of Food ESG Index. The ETF replicates the index's performance through full replication (purchasing all the components of the index). Dividend income within the ETF is accumulated (reinvested into the ETF).

The VanEck Sustainable Future of Food UCITS ETF is a small ETF with a fund volume of €5 million. The ETF was launched in Ireland on June 24, 2022.

The ETF's sector allocation is as follows:

• Consumer Staples: 69.67%

• Basic Materials: 27.36%

• Industrials: 2.02%

• Consumer Discretionary: 0.37%

• Other: 0.58%

As of September 30, 2024, the ETF's top 10 holdings and their respective weightings are:

These top 10 holdings constitute approximately 52.78% of the ETF's total portfolio. Geographically, the ETF is diversified across several countries:

• United States: 53.77%

• Switzerland: 8.63%

• China: 5.82%

• Ireland: 4.94%

• Other: 26.84%

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated November 16, 2024 👋. The next edition will be published on November 16, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

The next edition of Closelook@US Stock Markets will be published on November 17, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

The next edition of Closelook@Hypergrowth will be published on November 20, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

A Closelook At This Edition

1. This Week's Action: Global Stocks In Retreat Mode

2. Global Stock Markets: Comprehensive Overview Of 36 Global Stock Markets

3. Trump Sectors: Hidden Winners, Obvious Losers And More

4. The ETF Portfolio: Continued Rebalancing

5. This Week's ETF Spotlight: ETFs For Hedging

6. Knowledge Corner: The German Stock Market

7. Upcoming Transactions: More Rebalancing Ahead

8. Final Words: Trump 2.0 vs Obama 3.0 (aka Biden 1.0)

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(1) This Week's Action: Global Stocks In Retreat Mode

The week spanning from Monday, October 28 to Friday, November 01, 2024, displayed severe cracks in the global bull market narrative. The week spanning from Monday, 04 November until Friday, 08 November, displayed stock markets in bifurcation mode and seemed to have healed most of those cracks.

This assessment may have been wrong as the global stock markets resumed their path down in the week spanning from Monday, 11 November until Friday, 15 November.

The Dow Jones Global Index has been in a consolidation mode since the end of September 2024. The long-term bull channel is still intact.

The index lost about 1.6 percent on the week. It has been down 2 percent in the last 30 days. It is up 12,75 % YTD and 20 % in a 52-week perspective.

I expected a break above the trendline to occur this week if the US CPI and PPI showed that inflation was still moderating, kicking off the traditional year-end rally, which may last until the end of January (typical seasonal pattern).

The break-out failed when Chair Powell indicated that the Fed was in no hurry to lower rates and when the inflation figures in the US revealed continued stickiness in the core inflation and super core inflation subsectors.

While the odds still favor another rate cut in December, continued US rate cuts in 2025 seem more unlikely. This strengthened the US Dollar and at least temporarily ended the rally in gold.

Looking at the global stock markets, ex, the US, the situation worsens. The chart above shows the Vanguard FTSE All World Ex US ETF. The ETF failed to make an ATH in 2024.

It has declined much more than the Dow Jones Global Index, which is heavily skewed toward the US. However, the long-term bull channel is still intact.

(2) Global Stock Markets: Comprehensive Overview Of 36 Global Stock Markets

Argentina, Taiwan, Hungary, Taiwan, Germany (DAX), Spain, and India continue to be the seven best-performing global stock markets outside the US, taking a one-year perspective.

The table below displays 36 global stock markets. Laggards are Russia, Mexico, South Korea, and the German and Dutch midcap indices.

Until last week, the Russian RTS Index was the only index in the red and the worst-performing one globally, taking a 1-year perspective. As of 15 November 2024, Mexico, South Korea, and the German MDAX have turned negative, too.

Taking a 5-day (the week after Trump's victory) view, only six of the 36 stock markets covered traded up for the week - Argentina, Norway, Hungary, Spain, Dutch AMX, and Austria.

Most of the biggest Asian stock markets performed miserably. Russia gave back part of the gains recorded in the week before.

The difference between the German DAX, MDAX, and SDAX is striking. The MDAX trades around 26,500, nearly 10,000 points below its 2021 peak. It is trading around the 2017/18 levels.

Using the DAX price index instead of the DAX performance index to compare the performance of the DAX with the major global stock markets, the stellar performance of the DAX companies becomes a bit more muted, too.

The index is 20 percent above the dot.com bubble peaks recorded over 20 years ago.

The DAX Performance Index is one of the best indices globally - the power of reinvesting dividends. Most major indices are price indices, however. So, using the DAX Performance Index for comparison leads to a distorted analysis.

The DAX Net Return Index deducts taxes from performance and is an accurate index for net returns.

The DAX Net Return Index, measured in USD, is best used internationally outside the Eurozone.

While the MDAX lags behind the DAX, the performance of the SDAX measuring small-cap stocks in Germany is even worse. At 5775 points, it is roughly 2,300 points below its 2021 peak.

The Russel 2000 has underperformed the SP 500 in the last few years, but compared with the SDAX, the Russel 2000 performance looks solid.

The dire state of the German economy can also be seen in the performance of the German TECDAX.

It was stellar from the bottom of the GFC until the Covid-19 peak. It has been a miserable performer since then. Trading at around 2,450, it is still more than 600 points below the Covid peak.

Times have changed, and the old German business model has stopped working. Charts and price action do not lie.

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(3) Trump Sectors: Hidden Winners, Obvious Losers, And More

Based on this week's market reaction, the following market sectors may be net beneficiaries of the Trump election and have either sound or improving funnymentals and technicals.

(1) The Good

Crypto

1. Bitcoin

2. Altcoins

3. The related digital asset industries with stocks such as Coinbase, MicroStrategy, crypto miners, and ETFs such as the ones detailed in the table below.

MAHA (make America healthy again) Stocks

1. Clean food stocks such as Sprouts Farmers Market and similar

2. Personalized genetic testing and diagnostics stocks such as Natera

3. Dietary Supplement Industry (GNC Holdings or Vitamin Shoppe)

4. Fitness and Wellness Services (Planet Fitness, Peloton Interactive

Government Efficiency Stocks

Companies specializing in streamlining processes, reducing bureaucracy, and enhancing efficiency through technology could benefit. For example:

• IT consulting firms like Accenture or Deloitte which help organizations optimize their operations.

• Software companies such as Salesforce, ServiceNow, or Oracle which provide tools for workflow automation and efficiency

Tax Beneficiaries

The sectors that pay the highest taxes in the US as a percentage of their economic activity or net worth are:

Manufacturing

• Manufacturing firms pay a significantly higher share of corporate income taxes relative to their net worth and receipts. According to the Urban Institute, manufacturing firms paid about 28% of total corporate income taxes after credits despite accounting for only 15.1% of net worth and 29.4% of business receipts.

Wholesale and Retail Trade

• Wholesale and retail trade companies also pay a high share of taxes. They accounted for about 15.7% of corporate income taxes after credits, which is higher than their share of net worth (4.8%) but relatively in line with their share of business receipts (30.2%)

Finance and Insurance

• While finance and insurance companies have a large share of net worth (57.3%), they pay a relatively lower share of taxes (19.4%) compared to their economic size. However, this sector still contributes significantly to corporate tax revenue.

Key Statistics

• Manufacturing: 28.0% of corporate taxes, 15.1% of net worth, 29.4% of business receipts

• Wholesale and Retail Trade: 15.7% of corporate taxes, 4.8% of net worth, 30.2% of business receipts

• Finance and Insurance: 19.4% of corporate taxes, 57.3% of net worth, 8.5% of business receipts

Cyclical US Industrial Reflation Stocks

Under a second Trump administration, several sectors and stocks could benefit from the proposed policy changes, particularly those related to cyclical US industrial reflation.

Energy and Natural Resources

• Trump's policies favoring domestic energy production, such as rolling back environmental regulations and expanding drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska, would benefit energy companies.

  • Oilfield services companies: Haliburton, Schlumberger, and other oilfield services providers would likely see increased activity and profits.

  • Natural gas companies: Companies like EQT and CNX Resources could benefit from expanded drilling and pipeline projects

Manufacturing and Industrial Sector

• The proposed reduction in corporate tax rates to 15% for companies producing goods domestically, along with enhanced tax credits and subsidies, would incentivize manufacturing growth.

  • Automotive manufacturers: Companies like General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis could benefit from reduced taxes and potential tariffs on imported vehicles, although they might face challenges from tariffs on components sourced from Mexico

  • Industrial equipment manufacturers: Companies such as Caterpillar and Deere & Company could see increased demand and profitability due to lower taxes and deregulation

Financial Sector

• Banks and financial institutions are expected to benefit from Trump's policies, including higher interest rates and deregulation.

  • Bank stocks: Companies like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo could see improved performance due to higher interest rates and reduced regulatory burdens

Defense and Aerospace

• Trump's support for increased defense spending and a more robust military would benefit defense contractors.

  • Companies like Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman could see increased contracts and profitability.

Infrastructure and Construction

• The anticipated boost in domestic manufacturing and infrastructure projects could benefit construction and related services companies.

  • Companies like Fluor Corporation, Jacobs Engineering Group, and Martin Marietta Materials could see increased activity and profits from infrastructure projects.

Cyclical Stocks

• Cyclical stocks, heavily influenced by economic cycles, will likely benefit from Trump's pro-business and pro-growth policies.

  • Steel producers: Companies like Nucor and US Steel could benefit from tariffs on imported steel and increased domestic demand

  • Chemical and materials companies: Companies like Dow Inc. and DuPont could see increased demand and profitability due to lower taxes and deregulation

Key Stocks to Watch

• Haliburton (HAL)

• Schlumberger (SLB)

• EQT Corporation (EQT)

• CNX Resources (CNX)

• General Motors (GM)

• Ford Motor Company (F)

• Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

• Deere & Company (DE)

• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)

• Bank of America Corp. (BAC)

• Wells Fargo & Company (WFC)

• Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT)

• Boeing Co. (BA)

• Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC)

• Fluor Corp. (FLR)

• Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. (J)

• Martin Marietta Materials Inc. (MLM)

• Nucor Corp. (NUE)

• United States Steel Corp. (X)

• Dow Inc. (DOW)

• DuPont de Nemours Inc. (DD)

These companies and sectors will likely benefit from the combination of lower corporate tax rates, deregulation, and protectionist trade policies that Trump has proposed.

(2) Not Sure, Maybe, Neutral, Let’s See

1. Small Cap US Stocks in General: Only if interest rates do not rise too much

2. Taiwan Stocks: The markets anticipate that Taiwan may benefit from the Chinese stimuli. The AI-related and semiconductor-based bull market is in full swing and will continue in 2025 and 2026.

3. Russian Stocks: The markets seem to anticipate a Ukraine-Russia deal brokered by the Trump administration, but who knows?

(3) The Bad

1. European stocks: Trump does not care about Europe. Tariffs will hurt the European exporters, and the Eurozone faces structural problems. Germany is a nightmare on its own. Europe lacks an attractive tech sector in which to invest.

2. Rate-sensitive emerging markets: If bond vigilantes start to threaten the US credit markets and long-term rates go up beyond 4.5 % (and move close to 5 %), this will hurt some emerging countries with debt tied to the US Dollar and US interest rates.

3. Alternative energy (solar, wind, etc.): The losers from the drill baby drill approach

4. Chinese exporters and internationally oriented companies, incl. some Internet: Unless there is a deal (brokered by Elon Musk?), I see these companies as big losers.

(4) The Ugly

Japan

Japan is the only developed market economy with rising interest rates and a monetary policy that is becoming more restrictive. This usually does not bode well for equities.

The stock market may have completed nine waves up and may be in a more significant corrective phase.

United Kingdom

The UK stock market looks toppy to me. It is another European crisis economy.

Last week, the market broke below a vital support line.

I do not see a lot of attractive stock market sectors in the UK.

(4) The ETF Portfolio: Continued Rebalancing

From now on, I will detail the performance of the four investor portfolios in a weekly post in the Daily Brief section of the newsletter.

This will soon entail real-time trading signals. The next update will be on Sunday, November 17.

The ETF portfolio lost value during the week, which is in line with the performance of the key regions to which it has been exposed.

The two Indian ETFs and the Roundhill Weight Loss ETF are the biggest losers. The Bitcoin ETF has been the best performer.

I sold the Gold Miners ETF and replaced the “hedge position” with a Solana ETP.

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(5) This Week's ETF Spotlight: German ETFs

ETFs to invest in different sectors of the German stock market entail:

(1) GX DAX Germany ETF (DAX)

The Global X DAX Germany ETF seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the DAX Index.

(2) Germany Ishares MSCI ETF (EWG)

The iShares MSCI Germany ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of German equities. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the MSCI Germany Index.

(3) Germany Franklin FTSE ETF (FLGR)

The Franklin FTSE Germany ETF seeks to provide investment results that closely correspond, before fees and expenses, to the performance of the FTSE Germany Capped Index. FTSE Germany Capped Index is a market-capitalization weighted index representing the performance of large and mid-capitalization German stocks.

(4) Germany Alphadex Fund FT (FGM)

The Fund's objective is to seek investment results that generally correspond to the price and yield of an equity index called the NASDAQ AlphaDEX Germany Index before the Fund's fees and expenses.

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated November 09, 2024 👋. The next edition will be published on November 16, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

The next edition of Closelook@US Stock Markets will be published on November 10, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

The next edition of Closelook@Hypergrowth will be published on November 13, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

A Closelook At This Edition

1. This Week's Action: Global Stocks In Bifurcation Mode

2. Global Stock Markets: Comprehensive Overview Of 36 Global Stock Markets

3. Trump Markets: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

4. The ETF Portfolio: Some Bigger Changes

5. This Week's ETF Spotlight: Potential Trump Winner ETFs

6. Knowledge Corner: Investment Ratios

7. Upcoming Transactions: More Rebalancing Ahead

8. Final Words: Don’t Fight The Fed, And Don’t Argue With The Tape

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(1) This Week's Action: Global Stocks In Bifurcation Mode

The week spanning from Monday, October 28 to Friday, November 01, 2024, displayed severe cracks in the global bull market narrative. The week spanning from Monday, 04 November until Friday, 08 November, displayed stock markets in bifurcation mode and healed most of those cracks.

Three groups of markets could be identified - the good, the bad, and the ugly. Group Good stock markets are beneficiaries of the Trump victory. Group Bad stock markets identified themselves as losers. Group Ugly stock markets were in bad shape before the US election, which did not change after the election result.

The Dow Jones Global Index moved north in the past week - from the 4900 level to 5000 (see above chart, top left).

It broke the very short-term downward channel to the upside (see above chart, top right). It found resistance at the downward-sloping consolidation trendline, which formed in September 2024 and provided resistance to the rise of the index in late October (see above chart, bottom left).

I expect a break above the trendline to occur next week if the US CPI and PPI show that inflation is still moderating (see above chart, bottom left).

This may lead to the traditional year-end rally, which may last until the end of January (typical seasonal pattern).

The index looks like there will be a further extension inside an already extended wave 3 before a more significant consolidation wave 4 is shaping.

The price action since the end of September looks like a consolidation inside an ongoing bull market and not like a topping formation. The long-term bull market channel is fully intact.

(2) Global Stock Markets: Comprehensive Overview Of 36 Global Stock Markets

Argentina, Taiwan, Hungary, Germany (DAX), Spain, and India continue to be the six best-performing global stock markets outside the US, taking a one-year perspective.

The table below displays 36 global stock markets. Laggards are France, Mexico, South Korea, and the German MDAX.

The only index in the red, the worst-performing index globally, taking a 1-year perspective, continues to be the Russian RTS Index.

Taking a 5-day (Trump week) view, the picture changes considerably. Various Chinese stock markets have been the top performers. The Russian stock market also greeted the Trump victory with joy, as did Taiwan stocks.

Laggards have been European stocks as well as those in Indonesia and India. The failure of the ruling coalition distorted price action in Germany.

Inside China, stocks benefiting from more domestic stimulus have been top performers. I expect the second leg of the China bull to manifest now, led by domestically oriented stocks.

The Russian RTS index has been in a multi-year bear market. This may end soon. The markets anticipate a Trump-brokered deal between Ukraine and Russia to occur relatively quickly.

The Indian Nifty Index has been in corrective territory since September 2024. I believe the index may have found a bottom and will start another bull leg soon.

It broke above the short-term downward trend line and found support at the 24000 level.

I will be adding to the current positions starting next week. The first level to buy is at 24000 on the Nifty-Fifty index, and the second and third are at 22800 and 22000.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index moved lower by about three percent during the past week. It again found support at the critical 2-year trend line.

A heavy resistance zone has formed from 5000 to the spring 2024 tops.

The index may see a new 52-week high, but the move looks like the final move up (for quite some time).

Europe looks like the big loser of the Trump election.

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(3) Trump Markets: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Based on the initial market reaction, the following global markets may be net beneficiaries of the Trump election and have either sound or improving funnymentals and technicals.

The Good

1. Domestic Chinese stocks: There will be additional government stimuli to offset the Trump tariffs.

2. Small Cap US stocks: Only if interest rates do not rise too much

3. Taiwan stocks: The markets anticipate that Taiwan may benefit from the Chinese stimuli. The AI-related and semiconductor-based bull market is in full swing and will continue in 2025 and 2026.

4. Russian stocks: The markets seem to anticipate a Ukraine-Russia deal brokered by the Trump administration.

5. Domestic energy stocks: Drill baby drill has been one of the Trump slogans.

The Bad

1. European stocks: Trump does not care about Europe. Tariffs will hurt the European exporters, and the Eurozone faces structural problems. Germany is a nightmare on its own. Europe lacks an attractive tech sector in which to invest.

2. Rate-sensitive emerging markets: If bond vigilantes start to threaten the US credit markets and long-term rates go up beyond 4.5 % (and move close to 5 %), this will hurt some emerging countries with debt tied to the US Dollar and US interest rates.

3. Alternative energy (solar, wind, etc.): The losers from the drill baby drill approach

4. Chinese exporters and internationally oriented companies, incl. some Internet: Unless there is a deal (brokered by Elon Musk?), I see these companies as big losers.

The Ugly

1. Japan

Japan is the only developed market economy with rising interest rates and a monetary policy that is becoming more restrictive. This usually does not bode well for equities.

The stock market may have completed nine waves up and may be in a more significant corrective phase.

2. United Kingdom

The UK stock market looks toppy to me. It is another European crisis economy.

Last week, the market broke below a vital trendline, giving multi-year support.

The UK stock market initially moved up on the Trump election win, only to crater heavily and finish the week in the red.

I do not believe that Donald Trump has any ambition to maintain a special relationship between the UK and the US. The new Labor government turns out to be less friendly to the capital markets.

The economic ties with the EU are only improving slowly. The global trading ambitions of the UK after Brexit turn out to be mostly impossible to achieve.

I do not see a lot of attractive stock market sectors in the UK.

(4) The ETF Portfolio: Some Bigger Changes

The ETF portfolio has increased during the week, reaching an all-time high in mid-October.

The two Indian ETFs and the Roundhill Weight Loss ETF trade in the red. The Bitcoin ETF, the Russel MidCap Pure Growth ETF, and the Global X ETF have been the best performers.

I sold the Chinese Krane Internet ETF and added the S&P Capital Markets ETF SPDR (KCE) and the Russel 2000 Growth Ishares ETF (IWO), which I will detail in the next section.

(5) This Week's ETF Spotlight: Potential Trump Winner ETFs

Financial stocks, small/midcap stocks, and digital asset stocks may be Trump winners.

(1) S&P Capital Markets ETF SPDR (KCE)

The S&P Capital Markets ETF SPDR seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the SP Capital Markets Select Industry Index.

The ETF is well diversified. Exposure to regional banks is minimal.

The table below shows a list of 20 ETFs in the segment. KCE is the nu, number two performing ETF.

(2) Russel 2000 Growth Ishares ETF (IWO)

The iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of small-capitalization U.S. equities that exhibit growth characteristics.

The Fund seeks investment returns that correspond to the performance of the Russell 2000 Growth Index.

The Index measures the performance of the small-capitalization growth sector of the U.S. equity market.

The fund has more than 1000 stocks in the portfolio and is well diversified.

(3) Vaneck Digital Transformation ETF (DAPP)

The VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (DAPP) is a nightmare for value investors.

It contains all the leading crypto miners, leveraged bitcoin proxies, and more that value investors think will soon go to zero. Digital asset enthusiasts like the industry's assortment of A-team and B-team stocks.

Donald Trump is rumored to be very Crypto-friendly. This would be one way to play the trend.

The ETF is only suited for speculative minds. I am not sure yet whether I will add it to the portfolio. I may increase the current Bitcoin ETF position instead.

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated November 02, 2024 👋. The next edition will be published on November 09, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

The next edition of Closelook@US Stock Markets will be published on November 03, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

The next edition of Closelook@Hypergrowth will be published on November 06, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

A Closelook At This Edition

1. This Week's Action: Global Stocks In Corrective Mode

2. Global Stock Markets: Comprehensive Overview Of 30 Global Stock Markets

3. Macro Insights: Trussonomics 2.0 Ante Portas?

4. The ETF Portfolio: Some Bigger Changes

5. This Week's ETF Spotlight: A New Semiconductor ETF

6. Knowledge Corner: Yield Curves, Inflation, Real Rates, Trussonomics and the Presidential Candidates

7. Upcoming Transactions: Waiting Until After the Election

8. Final Words: Challenging the Bull Narrative

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(1) This Week's Action: Global Stocks In Corrective Mode

The week spanning from Monday, October 28 to Friday, November 01, 2024, displayed severe cracks in the global bull market narrative.

The Dow Jones Global Index moved down to the 4900 level and found support at the upward-sloping lower trend channel line, which has defined the lower boundaries of the bull market channel since autumn 2023. The long-term bull market channel was not violated.

The index looks like it has completed an extended wave 3 and is setting up for a consolidation wave 4.

There is support at the 4800 level (between 4850 and 4770) and between 4600 and 4500.

Taking a very long-term view, the bull is stretched. It has touched the decade-long upward-sloping upper trend line.

The index may be about to form a long-term bearish wedge. Right now, the wedge appears incomplete, suggesting that there is more upside to the bull narrative after a period of consolidation.

A short-term downward channel has formed, which may provide resistance to any move north in the coming week(s).

(2) Global Stock Markets: Comprehensive Overview Of 30 Global Stock Markets

Argentina, Taiwan, Hungary, Spain, and Germany (DAX) continue to be the five best-performing global stock markets outside the US, taking a one-year perspective.

The table below displays 36 global stock markets. Laggards are France, China, and Mexico.

The only index in the red, the worst-performing index globally, taking a 1-year perspective, has been the Russian RTS Index.

Taking a 30-day view, laggards have become top performers, with the mainland Chinese and Hong Kong markets leading.

Argentina is the best-performing country, followed by the Shanghai Calls B Index, the Taiwan Weighted Index, Ibex 35, and NZZ 50. Only ten indices moved up, and 26 indices moved down.

Russia was the worst performer. However, India, Mexico, and Brazil performed badly too.

I expect another bull market leg to occur in China soon. I will cut China's exposure and trim positions on the anticipated rise.

I will be adding to the existing India positions. I expected a whole leg down in the Indian market first two weeks ago. This seems to be unfolding.

I will be adding to the current positions on any meaningful dip. The first level to buy is at 24000 on the Nifty-Fifty index, and the second and third are at 22800 and 22000.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index moved lower during the past week. It found support at the critical 2-year trend line.

A heavy resistance zone, spanning from 5000 to the spring 2024 tops, has formed.

The index may see a new 52-week high, but the move looks like the final move up (for quite some time).

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(3) Macro Insights: Trussonomcs 2.0 Ante Portas

The bond market has started to vote early, sending a clear message ahead of the November 5 US presidential and congressional elections. Since the Federal Reserve's September 17-18 meeting, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield has surged by 77 basis points to 4.39%.

This significant increase reflects the Bond Vigilantes' concerns about Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish monetary policy and the potential for economic overheating.

Market Reaction and Analysis

On Monday, October 28, 2024, the Treasury announced its marketable borrowing estimates. The projected financing is $546 billion in Q4-2024 and $823 billion during Q1-2025.

This announcement comes against a staggering national debt, currently at $35.5 trillion. This includes $27.7 trillion of US Treasury marketable debt and $7.2 trillion of intragovernmental holdings.

The latter represents the government's IOUs to itself, primarily resulting from borrowing from public trust funds like Social Security and Medicare.

Alarmingly, this debt is projected to expand at an annual rate of over $1.0 trillion solely to cover the net interest outlays of the Treasury.

The Bond Vigilantes appear to be voting against the Fed's recent actions, particularly the 50 basis point rate cut on September 18. Their concern stems from the perception that the economy is already running hot and further easing could lead to overheating.

Volatility in the bond markets has risen sharply and reached new highs this week, surpassing the volatility spike seen in early August 2024.

Fiscal Policy Concerns and Challenges

The Bond Vigilantes' reaction may also reflect apprehension about future fiscal policies, regardless of which party wins the upcoming elections. Some are concerned that continued expansionary fiscal policies could further inflate the substantial federal budget deficit and fuel inflation.

The next administration will face significant fiscal challenges, particularly regarding debt servicing:

The next administration will face net interest outlays of over $1 trillion on the ballooning federal debt.

This underscores the growing burden of interest payments on the federal debt, likely influencing future fiscal and monetary policy decisions.

(4) The ETF Portfolio: Some Bigger Changes

The ETF portfolio has moved lower during the week after reaching an all-time in mid-October. It has still been up since starting on 1 August 2024.

The two Indian ETFs and the China Kranes CSI Internet ETF trade lower from where

I bought and recommended them. I replaced the traditional VanEck Semi ETF with the new Fabless Semi ETF.

I also added the new Blackrock ETFs focusing on the largest 30 Nasdaq 100 stocks and 20 SP 500 stocks to the portfolio and sold the two US-based tech ETFs I initially bought. I have described the three ETFs in the following section.

(5) This Week's ETF Spotlight: A New Semiconductor ETF

Blackrock has just launched two exchange-traded funds that I have added to the ETF portfolio. VanEck launched a sector ETF, which I have added.

(1) iShares Nasdaq Top 30 Stocks ETF

The iShares Nasdaq Top 30 Stocks ETF (QTOP.O) lets investors hold the 30 biggest non-financial stocks, including mega-cap tech. It has secured backing from the University of California's investing arm.

iShares Nasdaq Top 30 Stocks ETF (QTOP)

• Fund Objective: Invests in the 30 largest companies by market capitalization within the Nasdaq 100 index.

• Number of Holdings: 30.

• Top Three Holdings: Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT).

• Expense Fee: 0.20%.

The expense ratio is 0.20%.

(2) iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF

The iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF offers access to the 20 largest U.S. companies.

iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF (TOPT)

• Fund Objective: Invests in the 20 largest U.S. companies by market capitalization within the S&P 500 index.

• Number of Holdings: 20.

• Top Three Holdings: Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT).

• Expense Fee: 0.20%.

The top 20 companies in the S&P 500 have contributed to more than two-thirds of the index's returns over the past three years.

The iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF (TOPT) and iShares Nasdaq Top 30 Stocks ETF (QTOP) are rebalanced quarterly.

This schedule allows the funds to adjust their holdings according to the top U.S. and Nasdaq-listed companies' current market values and rankings in their respective portfolios, ensuring alignment with their indices. These quarterly adjustments help the ETFs maintain their target exposure to the largest companies within their focus areas.​

(3) VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF

The VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX) is a new offering focusing exclusively on fabless semiconductor companies. These firms design, develop, and market chips while outsourcing manufacturing to third-party foundries like Taiwan Semiconductor.

This business model, which emerged in the 1980s, allows companies to concentrate on innovation and design without the massive capital expenditure required for manufacturing facilities. SMHX tracks the MarketVector US Listed Fabless Semiconductor Index, offering a more targeted approach than its broader counterpart, SMH.

To be included, companies must generate at least 50% of their revenue from fabless semiconductor operations. The ETF employs a modified market-cap-weighted methodology and rebalances quarterly. Key features of SMHX include:

1. Concentrated portfolio: Top 10 holdings represent 73.92% of total assets.

2. Top holdings: Nvidia (21.87%), Broadcom (14.78%), and Astera Labs (6.67%).

3. Expense ratio: 0.35%, matching SMH.

4. Current AUM: $9.43 million.

5. Average daily trading volume: Around 27,000.

6. There are no dividend distributions at present.

SMHX has shown promising momentum, up close to 10% since early October 2024. While it shares some holdings with SMH, SMHX's portfolio includes pure-play design companies that are absent from its broader counterpart.

The ETF's launch and early success reflect growing investor recognition of the fabless model's advantages. However, investors should note that both SMHX and SMH have a significant Nvidia-heavy skew. Those looking to mitigate single-stock risk in the semiconductor space might consider an equal-weighted fund as an alternative.

The ETF maintains a concentrated portfolio structure, similar to its older sibling, with its top 10 holdings representing 73.92% of total assets. While both funds feature Nvidia as their top holding, SMHX has a 21.87% allocation. 

The remaining holdings reflect SMHX's fabless focus, with Broadcom (AVGO) at 14.78% and Astera Labs (ALAB) at 6.67%. Other vital positions entail Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) (4.66%), Synopsys (SNPS) (4.68%), Qualcomm (QCOM) (4.59%), Marvell Technology (MRVL) (4.49%), Arm Holdings (ARM) (4.12%), Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) (4.10%), and Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) (3.90%).

SMHX's portfolio includes pure-play design companies that are absent from its broader counterpart.

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated October 26, 2024 👋. The next edition will be published on November 02, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

The next edition of Closelook@US Stock Markets will be published on October 27, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

The next edition of Closelook@Hypergrowth will be published on October 30, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

A Closelook At This Edition

1. This Week's Action: Global Stocks In Consolidation Mode

2. Global Stock Markets: Comprehensive Overview Of 30 Global Stock Markets

3. Macro Insights: Bond Vigilantes Are Back

4. The ETF Portfolio: Some Good, Some Bad, Some Need Polishing

5. This Week's ETF Spotlight: Two New ETFs To Form The Core Of The Portfolio

6. Knowledge Corner: What Are Bond Vigilantes And Why Do They Matter?

7. Upcoming Transactions: 10 Days Until Election

8. Final Words: Presidents Come And Go, But This Election May Matter More Than Other Ones

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This Week's Action: Global Stocks In Consolidation Mode

The week spanning from Monday, October 21 to Friday, October 25, 2024, presented another consolidation week for the global bull market narrative.

The Dow Jones Global Index moved down, potentially setting up for another bull market leg later this year.

The long-term bull market channel was not violated. The index currently tests support around the 4940 - 4950 level and may even go lower to test the 4800 level.

Taking a very long-term view, the bull is already stretched. It has touched the decade-long upward-sloping upper trend line.

The index may be about to form a long-term bearish wedge. Right now, it appears to be incomplete, suggesting there is more upside to the bull narrative.

Global Stock Markets: Comprehensive Overview Of 30 Global Stock Markets

Argentina, Taiwan, Spain, Germany (DAX), and Hungary continue to be the five best-performing global stock markets outside the US, taking a one-year perspective.

The table below displays 36 global stock markets. Laggards are France, Thailand, and Mexico.

The only index in the red, the worst-performing index globally, taking a 1-year perspective, has been the Russian RTS Index.

Taking a 90-day view, laggards have become top performers, with the mainland Chinese and Hong Kong markets leading.

Argentina is the best-performing country outside China's mainland indices, followed by Thailand, the German MDax and Dax indices, and the Indonesian stock market.

Russia is still the worst performer. However, South Korea, the Tokyo Topix Index, the Austrian Traded Index, the Mexican Bolsa IPC Index, and the Indian Nifty Fifty indices have been negative during the last 90 days.

I expect another bull market leg to occur in China soon. I will be cutting China's exposure and selling on the anticipated rise.

I will be adding to the existing India positions. I expected another leg down in the Indian market first last week. This seems to be unfolding. I will be adding to the current positions on any meaningful dip.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index moved sideways/slightly lower during the past week. It looks primed for advancing later this year, which I also advise selling. There is resistance at the spring 2024 tops.

The index may see a new 52-week high, but the move looks like the final move up (for quite some time).

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Macro Insights: Bond Vigilantes Are Back

The bond market has started to vote early, sending a clear message ahead of the November 5 US presidential and congressional elections.

Since the Federal Reserve's September 17-18 meeting, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield has surged by 64 basis points to 4.26% before settling down slightly and closing at 4.24 %.

This significant increase reflects the Bond Vigilantes' concerns about Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish monetary policy and the potential for economic overheating.

Market Reaction and Analysis

The Bond Vigilantes appear to be voting against the Fed's recent actions, particularly the 50 basis point rate cut on September 18. Their concern stems from the perception that the economy is already running hot and further easing could lead to overheating.

This market reaction was not entirely unexpected. On September 2, Ed Yardeni predicted that positive economic indicators might unsettle the bond market.

In his September 22 commentary, he further highlighted the possibility of diverging yields, with the 2-year yield potentially decreasing due to Fed easing while the 10-year yield might rise on concerns about economic overheating.

Fiscal Policy Concerns and Challenges

The Bond Vigilantes' reaction may also reflect apprehension about future fiscal policies, regardless of which party wins the upcoming elections. Some are concerned that continued expansionary fiscal policies could further inflate the substantial federal budget deficit and fuel inflation.

The next administration will face significant fiscal challenges, particularly regarding debt servicing:

The next administration will face net interest outlays of over $1 trillion on the ballooning federal debt.

This underscores the growing burden of interest payments on the federal debt, likely influencing future fiscal and monetary policy decisions.

The ETF Portfolio: Some Good, Some Bad, Some Need Polishing

The ETF portfolio has moved slightly lower during the week after reaching an all-time in mid-October. It has been up since starting on 1 August 2024.

All ETFs except the two Indian ETFs and the China Kranes CSI Internet ETF trade higher than where I bought and recommended them.

I did not buy or sell any ETFs during the week. I want to add two new ETFs to the portfolio starting next week (see next section for more information on these ETFs):

1. iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF and

2. iShares Nasdaq Top 30 Stocks ETF.

This Week's ETF Spotlight: Two New ETFs To Form The Core Of The Portfolio

Blackrock has just launched three new exchange-traded funds, including two that offer exposure to the largest U.S. stocks.

(1) iShares Nasdaq Top 30 Stocks ETF

The iShares Nasdaq Top 30 Stocks ETF (QTOP.O) lets investors hold the 30 biggest non-financial stocks, including mega-cap tech. It has secured backing from the University of California's investing arm.

iShares Nasdaq Top 30 Stocks ETF (QTOP)

• Fund Objective: Invests in the 30 largest companies by market capitalization within the Nasdaq 100 index.

• Number of Holdings: 30.

• Top Three Holdings: Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT).

• Expense Fee: 0.20%.

The expense ratio is 0.20%. The holdings as of 24 October are:

(2) iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF

The iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF offers access to the 20 largest U.S. companies.

iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF (TOPT)

• Fund Objective: Invests in the 20 largest U.S. companies by market capitalization within the S&P 500 index.

• Number of Holdings: 20.

• Top Three Holdings: Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT).

• Expense Fee: 0.20%.

The top 20 companies in the S&P 500 have contributed to more than two-thirds of the index's returns over the past three years.

The iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF (TOPT) and iShares Nasdaq Top 30 Stocks ETF (QTOP) are rebalanced quarterly.

This schedule allows the funds to adjust their holdings according to the top U.S. and Nasdaq-listed companies' current market values and rankings in their respective portfolios, ensuring alignment with their indices. These quarterly adjustments help the ETFs maintain their target exposure to the largest companies within their focus areas.​

I want to add the two ETFs to the portfolio starting next week.

(3) iShares Nasdaq-100 ex Top 30 ETF

The iShares Nasdaq-100 ex Top 30 ETF (QNXT.O) will invest beyond the Nasdaq 100 behemoths to capture the growth of relatively more minor growth firms.

iShares Nasdaq-100 ex-Top 30 ETF (QNXT)

• Fund Objective: Invests in the 31st to 100th largest companies by market capitalization within the Nasdaq 100 index.

• Number of Holdings: 30.

• Top Three Holdings: Micron Technology (MU), Starbucks (SBUX), and Gilead Sciences (GILD).

• Expense Fee: 0.20%.

BlackRock recently said it had also launched two new funds centered on technology growth and artificial intelligence.

iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF (NYSEARCA:BAI)

• Fund Objective: Invests in a concentrated portfolio of 20-40 global AI and technology stocks across all markets.

• Number of Holdings: 34

• Top Three Holdings: Nvidia (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT).

• Expense Fee: 0.68%.

iShares Technology Opportunities Active ETF (NYSE:TEK)

• Fund Objective: Invests in global technology companies across semiconductors, software, hardware, internet, services, content and infrastructure, and new industries.

• Number of Holdings: 57

• Top Three Holdings: Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Apple (AAPL).

• Expense Fee: 0.75%.

BAI and TEK will be the latest ETFs to join several existing funds that are focused on AI and technology, including:

• KraneShares Artificial Intelligence and Technology ETF (AGIX)

• GX Artificial Intelligence & Tech ETF (AIQ)

• GX Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ)

• ALPS Disruptive Technologies ETF (DTEC)

• First Trust NASDAQ Artificial Intelligence and Robotics ETF (ROBT)

• Robo Global Artificial Intelligence ETF (THNQ)

• Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT)

I will discuss these ETFs in the next edition next week.

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated October 19, 2024 👋. The next edition will be published on October 26, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

The next edition of Closelook@US Stock Markets will be published on October 20, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated October 12, 2024 👋. The next edition will be published on October 19, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

The next edition of the CloselookqUS Stock Markets will be published on October 13, 2024, at 2.00 p.m. ET.

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated October 05, 2024 👋.

A Closelook into This Edition

1. This Week's Action: A Bear's Nightmare is Coming True

2. Global Stock Markets: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Revisited

3. Macro Insights: Putting the Recession Story to Bed

4. The ETF Portfolio: …

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated September 28, 2024 👋.

A Closelook into This Edition

1. This Week's Action: Too Good to Be True?

2. Global Stock Markets: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

3. Seasonality Insights: October Can Be Challenging

4. The ETF Portfolio: China’s Stimulus and New All-Time Highs

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated September 21, 2024 👋.

Stay sharp on the markets with Closelook!

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Global Stock Markets, dated September 14, 2024 👋.

📅 The next update will be published on Saturday, September 21, at 7:00 AM ET.

📅 The next edition of the Closelook@Hypergrowth newsletter will be published on Wednesday, September 18, at 7:00 AM ET.

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