This week’s edition of Closelook@Hypergrowth, dated July 26, 2026.

First, the housekeeping, stated plainly: this letter moves to the weekend. Closelook@Hypergrowth now publishes Sundays, joining Global (Saturday) and US (Sunday) — the mid-week slot is retired, and this edition covers the stretch since July 15. It was a stretch worth two letters. The flow scan’s least favorable pre-print configuration — Netflix, flagged here in black and white — resolved as a growth print sold to a 52-week low within 48 hours. The single warning row on our ledger — KLA — did not stay single: the roll spread through the equipment sleeve, and by Friday the semiconductor complex had broken every base the last edition celebrated defending. The opex flows held their regime through all of it. And the market added a new sort this letter now has to score: on Friday, SAP and ServiceNow were paid nine and seven percent on the same tape that sold Intel eight percent for the season’s best print. The ledger called the last round of shots. Below, we score it — including where it was wrong — and load the next round.

1 · This Week’s Action

The cross-asset backdrop — the floor changed. The last edition wrote “the friendliest possible macro floor under a rotation.” That floor is gone: September hike odds went from one-in-five to four-in-five, oil traded through $100, and Treasuries fell with equities — a discount-rate shock, whose full cross-asset map belongs to Saturday’s Global letter. This letter needs exactly one conclusion from it: a rotation that was running on a friendly discount rate now runs against a hostile one — and it kept running anyway. That is the fortnight’s most important fact about the flows.

The tech shelf — the bases broke, and we said they’d hold. Full honesty against the last edition, which celebrated the semiconductor bases surviving their hardest test: within the fortnight every one of them went — the old floor was rejected on a retest from below, and the complex ended Friday with its first close-basis crack in the June capitulation structure since spring (the level-by-level map, and what the reference book’s contract does about it, is the US letter’s job). This letter’s job is the regime statement underneath, and it is the cleanest one we have ever printed: SMH −11.9% over one month with three green names out of twenty-two — against cloud software +9.2% and broad software +3.8%. A twenty-point monthly spread between the AI trade’s hardware and its software. The rotation is no longer a flow rumor. It is the tape.

The factor view. The equal-weight S&P closed the week at −0.1% against the Nasdaq’s −2.6%; value +1.8%, growth −2.7%; low-vol green. The stress lives precisely where the index weight lives — a concentration event, second episode running, with the average stock declining to participate.

Our own board — the fresh scan. The Rotation Ledger below is the Closelook Directional Flow scan across all four growth buckets, sorted by the 21-day flow delta, scanned July 23. Read it against the last edition’s version:

2 · The State

The four buckets, briefly. New readers: we cut the growth trade into four functional indices — Rubin is the AI build-out, AEI the AI-opex layer, AW40 the agentic winners (the application cohort 2026 punished hardest), and HALO functional growth beyond AI.

The week the ladder flipped twice. The verdict week sorted the buckets in a new order: Rubin +0.4% — the build-out stabilizing after its washout (+92% YTD) — while AW40 gave back 3.7% (−23% YTD), AEI −2.9% (+38%), HALO −1.9% (−1%). Then Friday re-sorted it again: AW40 +2.2% on the day SAP and ServiceNow were paid for claiming the orchestration seat, while Rubin fell 3.8% with the cracking band. Two flips in five sessions is not indecision — it is the market pricing the AI trade as layers rather than as one theme, which is the founding premise of the four-bucket framework. The scoring just moved onto our home field.

The receipts, in names — what the ledger had already said. Two of the fortnight’s verdicts were this letter’s own calls, so they get scored first. Netflix: the last edition printed, in advance, that it carried “the scan’s least favorable pre-print configuration.” It grew, beat, and was sold to a 52-week low within two sessions — the flow state knew what the estimates didn’t. IBM: missed with a cut, mainframe revenue −42% against distributed +37% — the legacy decay this letter has tracked since the 25%-day, now visible inside a single income statement. The rest of the print week (Intel’s sold double-beat, the SAP and ServiceNow orchestrator bid — the full print-by-print record is the US letter’s) matters here as a sort: the market has started pricing enterprise software by which layer of the agentic stack a name occupies — the framework in this week’s long read, The Agent Is Not the Product. The Orchestrator Is., six claimants, at most three seats. For this letter the consequence is concrete: the AW40 cohort’s fate now depends on layer, not on growth rate — and the ledger’s job is to catch the market’s layer-sorting in the flows before the prints announce it.

The boundary, name by name — Friday’s dependence ladder. Friday’s session sorted the AI-hardware complex by a single variable: how much of each name’s value depends on the next hyperscaler order. Our numbers, Friday close, in that order: ARM −8.1% (royalties per chip deployed — the purest order-dependence in the complex, on its richest premium) · Micron −7.0% (HBM is ordered, not consumed) · Applied Materials −4.7% and KLA −3.8% (equipment order books feel capex changes first) · Vertiv −4.5%, Quanta −4.3%, Eaton −2.7% (the data-center power layer) · AMD −3.3%, Broadcom −2.7% (custom accelerators in between) · and at the far end NVIDIA −0.9%, the one name priced on workload execution rather than on anyone’s order book. Now cross-check the ladder against our own ledger, in public: KLA is the scan’s biggest vindication — flow rolled to accelerating-down two scans before Friday priced the reason. And ARM is the scan’s open contradiction: the ledger has it accelerating-up (+31.7) while Friday hit it hardest of all. One of the two is wrong — either the flows are catching accumulation into weakness, or the delta hasn’t caught the repricing yet. That row is now the most interesting single test on the board, and we will score it here either way.

The structural read — scored honestly. Our working QQQ count (Wave 1 into early 2025, Wave 2 the spring break, ongoing Wave 3) took its first real hit: Friday’s close at 684.23 sits below the 686.37/686.76 double-washout floor — the exact escalation line the US letter flagged — while the S&P closed green the same day. A two-point break of the floor with the broader market refusing to confirm is not a completed answer; it is the question, posed at the count’s expense. The honest statement: a fast reclaim of 686–694 keeps the Wave-3 read intact with a deeper internal correction; acceptance below it forces the count’s alternative — that the correction is a degree larger than we have been treating it. We hold the read, at reduced conviction, and let next week grade it.

3 · The Outlook

The tells from the last edition — all three, scored.

• Opex persistence, week three: confirmed — in flow. The scan shows the cluster unbroken and broader: Palo Alto (+42.7), Okta (+42.0), Datadog (+37.5), Fortinet (+36.5), CrowdStrike (+32.7) — all accelerating-up, week three-plus. The doctrine said three weeks is a regime; the flow regime is in ink. The price test arrived simultaneously: the rate shock taxed the whole layer mid-week (CrowdStrike −9.8% on the week, Palo Alto −8.7%) before Friday’s orchestrator bid. Flows lead, price got stress-tested, the regime held. Watch the same cluster through the season’s software prints.

• The conversion rate: pending, closer. Duolingo did not convert — it remains “reversing-up” — but it climbed to #6 on the entire ledger (Δ21 +43.4 against flow still at −103), and the reversal cluster recruited: Snowflake, Rubrik and Axon joined it this scan. Accumulation is broadening; conversion is still the trigger the tactical sleeve waits for.

• KLA — the contagion question: answered, against us. The last edition asked whether KLA’s roll would stay idiosyncratic. It did not. KLA deepened to −138.5 with flow now negative outright, and the roll spread exactly along the sleeve we named: Photronics, Lumentum, AAOI, Sandisk. This was the “stall is the top” scenario’s first domino, and the sector-degree price action — 554 rejected from below, the 582 base gone, the band cracked — confirms the equipment layer’s rest became a de-rating. We wrote we would refuse to pretend otherwise; we are not. The build-out’s core leaders tell the other half, below.

The leaders’ dissent. In the same week the band cracked, NVIDIA closed green (+0.5%, above both moving averages), AMD green, Micron +4% after its −24% month, Dell +9.3% on the ledger’s accelerating flow, DuPont leading the entire scan on the materials side. A complex whose index breaks while its leadership and periphery refuse to confirm is exactly what the last edition called “value migrating from the crowded core to the supplying periphery” — the barbell inside the build-out. The equipment sleeve is repricing; the architecture and materials layers are not. The bucket is not one trade either.

The bucket system now has its own gauge — and it was built for exactly this week. The AI Handoff Board is the four-bucket thesis turned into an instrument: nine ratios measuring whether value is migrating along the chain this letter is organized around — Rubin builds → AEI operates → AW40 uses — each normalized to 1.00 at June 30. The readings, Friday close: operate-versus-build at 1.12 (+12% in four weeks — the opex bucket re-rating against the build bucket), use-versus-operate at 1.11, and the full-chain scoreboard use-versus-build at 1.24. This week all three cross-ratios dipped — which is not a contradiction: Rubin stabilized while the operators gave back, the same double flip the bucket table above shows. The macro event that lit the fuse — the capex-sustainability double-print and the four-layer architecture it forced apart — is the US letter’s story, told at the sector-and-index degree; what belongs here is the system statement (the migration the deltas flagged in early July is now visible in level terms across the whole chain) and, below, the names. Confirmation, in bucket language: two earnings cycles in which AEI-bucket names earn relative estimate upgrades while Rubin-bucket equipment and memory estimates flatten. Wednesday’s referee block is cycle one. (And the opex layer is not an American monopoly — Walldorf proved that this week; the non-US expressions of the layer are next Saturday’s Global material.)

The regime gauge. Money Temperature at 50, up from 44 — dead-neutral. The pairing the doctrine likes (composite steady, rotation internal) survived the fortnight; the composite turning down while rotation runs remains the exit signal, and it has not printed.

The week ahead — the referee block. For the four-bucket framework, next week is not an earnings calendar — it is the referee. The Wednesday/Thursday mega-prints (the budgets that fund the build-out bucket’s entire demand thesis) either re-confirm the capex path at full size, or hand the rotation its biggest receipt yet; the print-record angles and levels live in the US letter. Cadence on Monday matters here for one bucket-specific reason: it prints one session after Kimi K3’s promised open-weights release, and a verified design shock reprices seat-based software economics across two of our four buckets at once. Whatever the verdicts, the ledger scans them before the narratives do — that is the point of it.

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Last edition’s thesis was stated plainly enough to be wrong: the absolute flow scores still crowned the semiconductors, but the rate of change said leadership was already passing — from the build-out core to the opex layer and the applications. One week later the tape produced receipts. IBM pre-announced a miss and fell 25% in a day — the steepest drop in decades — for exactly the two reasons this letter tracks: memory costs eating legacy IT budgets, and AI spend cannibalizing the incumbents. On the same tape, the AI-opex layer set records: CrowdStrike up 12% and Okta up 11% to new highs, the whole security line green, Cloudflare closing at a record through its 280 line.

The software index barely moved while an 18-point spread opened inside it. That is not a market getting risk-off about software. That is a market re-sorting who owns software’s future — precisely the hand-off the deltas flagged. The read below updates every tell we named, takes this morning’s ASML print into the frame, and gives the earnings season’s referee metric — the Earnings Dispersion Ratio — the treatment we promised. The schedule of our other publications is at the end.

1 · This Week’s Action

The cross-asset backdrop. June CPI printed a 0.4% monthly decline against a consensus −0.2%, taking the annual rate to 3.5% from 4.2% — and the day after held the move instead of fading it: volatility compressed toward its 52-week low, gold firmed, growth led value again. No haven bid, expectations re-anchoring — the friendliest possible macro floor under a rotation.

The tech shelf. Two days that belong in a textbook: Monday the semi complex fell 4–5% while software held green — SOXX closing forty cents below the 554 line — and Tuesday the complex reversed hard, SOXX +2.6% back to 567.92, SMH reclaiming 600, with the epicenter itself producing the violence:

SK Hynix from two dollars above its $149 offer price to a post-debut high, up 27% in one session, on hard news — 12-layer HBM4 in mass production and shipping to Nvidia. The shelf’s message: the washout was positioning, not thesis.

The factor view. The same re-sort one level up: the growth complex caught its bid back, but the year-to-date column still shows the concentration story — the growth factor carried by an ever-narrower list. Hold that thought; it becomes the EDR section below.

Our own board, updated — and the tells resolved. The Rotation Ledger below is the Closelook Directional Flow scan across all four growth buckets, sorted by the 21-day flow delta. Read it against last week’s version and every tell we named has an answer:

Three resolutions worth naming. The opex persistence held: a second consecutive week with AI-opex the strongest advancing bucket — the security-and-observability cluster (Fortinet, Palo Alto, Datadog, now Okta and CrowdStrike with them) exactly where we said to watch it.

The reversal cluster grew: eighteen of forty agentic winners now flash “reversing-up,” from sixteen — and the bellwether row converted: Duolingo’s 21-day delta is now +44 with flow still deeply negative, the textbook shape of a destroyed name being re-accumulated. And the one warning fired too: KLA — last week’s “single number to watch” — rolled from “stalled” to “accelerating down,” the most negative delta in the scan by a factor of three. One core equipment name is repricing, not resting. The complex bounced without it.

2 · The State

The four buckets, briefly. New readers: we cut the growth trade into four functional indices — Rubin is the AI build-out (~125 names of silicon, memory, packaging, power), AEI the AI-opex layer (~33 names that sell the running of AI — security, observability, data), AW40 the agentic winners (40 application names, the cohort 2026 punished hardest), and HALO functional growth beyond AI.

The year so far: HALO led early, the build-out took the year, the winners were wrecked, the opex layer compounded quietly.

The week the buckets swapped. Two days into this week the scoreboard reads: AEI +1.7% — the only bucket green — after leading Tuesday outright at +2.1%, its best day against the field all summer. Rubin −1.8% after a violent round trip (−3.3% Monday, +1.6% Tuesday). HALO −1.1%, resting. AW40 −0.1% — and read that flat number correctly: the destroyed cohort held its ground through a semi washout that took the leaders down 5%, because money is quietly returning to it. Year-to-date the ladder still reads roughly Rubin +114%, AEI +49%, HALO +4%, AW40 −21% — but the week’s tape is the rotation happening, not pending.

The receipts, in names. Monday’s IBM warning is the cleanest single datapoint the rotation thesis has received. The company named its own killers: customers front-running memory and server price rises — the DRAM squeeze arriving in enterprise budgets — and AI spending cannibalizing legacy IT. Inside the same print, Red Hat grew 11%. The next session completed the sort: ServiceNow −5.8%, Adobe −4.3%, Salesforce −2.1% on the legacy side; CrowdStrike +12% and Okta +11% to records, SentinelOne and Zscaler up 7%, Palo Alto up 7%, Cloudflare through 280 to a record close on the other. The software index — IGV, up 1% — hid an 18-point spread. Every one of those record-setters is an AEI constituent. The index was built for precisely this sort.

The structural read. Our working QQQ count stands: the advance off the late-2022 base as Wave 1 into early 2025, the spring-2025 break as Wave 2, and an ongoing Wave 3 — the stretch where pauses get bought and rotations run internal rather than terminal. Monday-to-Tuesday was that thesis in miniature: a two-day washout bought back inside 24 hours.

Below the index, last week’s two pattern-watches resolved in opposite directions. The SMH diamond — usually a topping shape — is dissolving upward: the complex reclaimed 600 and the base at 582 never broke, with SOXX’s 554 line surviving its test by forty cents and reclaiming fourteen points the next day. The IGV throwback held and paid: the broken downtrend retested from above was the launchpad for the record-setters inside it.

3 · The Outlook

This morning’s print belongs to the frame. ASML — the toolmaker whose order book referees the whole build-out — beat its own guidance on every line (€9.3 billion sales against €8.4–9.0 guided, 54% gross margin against 51–52%) and, for the second consecutive quarter, printed no bookings number at all. In its place: a plan to add 30% to this year’s EUV capacity for 2027, and a Q3 guide stepping to €11–12 billion. Amsterdam opened it around 7% higher and held most of it. The market accepted machines as the order book’s proxy — you do not build 30% more litho capacity against demand you cannot see.

For the rotation read, that is the constructive configuration: the build-out’s fundamentals keep confirming while its crowded positioning rests — a trade digesting, not dying. TSMC reports tomorrow morning; tools and wafers could confirm each other inside one week.

The Earnings Dispersion Ratio — the promised treatment. The US letter introduced it as a cliffhanger; here is the number in full. The EDR divides aggregate index earnings growth by the median constituent’s growth. Consensus has S&P 500 earnings growing 23–24% this year — with normal beat rates, the second quarter alone could print near 29%, growth the index normally only achieves exiting a recession. Goldman’s strategists carry roughly $340 in index earnings for the year. But the aggregate is profit-dollar-weighted: the Mag7-and-adjacent cohort compounds near 30% while the rest of the index grows perhaps 5%; equal-weighted, the market’s earnings grow 9–13%; the median company, 7–10%.

Divide, and the index’s earnings line is growing about three times faster than its representative member — an EDR around 3.0. The composition underneath: perhaps 50–75 genuine fast-growers, roughly 250 companies in an unremarkable middle, and 150–200 growing not at all or shrinking.

And a slice of the numerator is not operating earnings: Amazon booking valuation gains on its Anthropic stake — Alphabet likely similar — and a build-out in which one side of every dollar is booked as 100% revenue today while the other side depreciates over years. The first real-time reading arrived Tuesday: all five big banks beat — JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citi, and Goldman with the largest surprise — and four of the five sold off on the news. Beats are expected now; the bar is the whisper. That is what an EDR near 3.0 feels like from inside earnings season: an index that cannot afford ordinary good news.

Why this letter cares. Concentration is not a short signal — the ratio can stay elevated for years while the fast cohort genuinely compounds. It is a fragility gauge: the higher the EDR, the more the index’s earnings line depends on a handful of prints, and the more each disappointment costs. This week’s IBM day is the mechanism in miniature — when a mega-cap’s earnings break, the repricing is instant and total. We will track the ratio through the season; if aggregate growth converges toward the median (the boom broadening) the growth tape gets safer; if the median converges down toward zero while the aggregate holds, the costume slips.

The macro frame underneath is doing its part — the inflation impulse cresting rather than entrenching is what lets the multiple survive the autumn calendar:

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This week’s edition of Closelook@Hypergrowth, dated July 07, 2026.

We track the growth trade through four functional buckets — the AI build-out (Rubin), AI operating expenditure (AEI), the agentic winners (AW40) and functional growth beyond AI (HALO). The year so far ran in sequence: HALO led the first months, then the build-out took over — and the agentic winners were wrecked along the way, dragged by their legacy businesses.

This week our own flow data says the sequence is turning again. The absolute flow scores still crown the semiconductors. But the rate of change of those scores — the thing that turns before price does — has already rotated: a broad set of semis has stalled its advance while a broad set of opex and application names has moved forward, and the most-destroyed corner of the tape is producing the largest reversal cluster we track. The read below holds that this is what a healthy hand-off looks like, not a top. The schedule of our other publications is at the end.

1 · This Week’s Action

The cross-asset backdrop. Bonds softened as yields firmed, the dollar drifted lower, and the risk-seeking corners — bitcoin, silver, copper — led. No haven bid anywhere: the signature of repositioning, not de-risking.

The tech shelf. The split inside technology is the cleanest it has been all year, and the live board states it without commentary: on the week, cloud, cyber and software lead — while the entire semiconductor complex sits at the bottom, down mid-to-high single digits. And note the right-hand columns: the same semi funds that lost 6–9% on the week are still up 60–85% on the year — the crowded winner resting, not a laggard breaking. One number deserves its own sentence: SOXX closed at 555.96 — sitting almost exactly on the 554 line that Tuesday’s Pulse named as the level that decides the week.

The US index and factor proxies. The factor board tells the same story one level up: on the week, value leads growth and the Nasdaq complex trails the field, while the megacap-7 basket caught a bounce. The year-to-date column is the quiet shock — the value factor has beaten the growth factor by double digits in 2026, and small-cap value leads everything. The growth indices are fine; the growth factor is being carried by an ever-narrower list. That is the concentration story in factor form, and it is the backdrop the rotation below plays against.

The board that matters this week is our own. The Rotation Ledger below is built from the Closelook Directional Flow scan across all four growth buckets — not price performance, but flow, and specifically its rate of change. Sorted by the 21-day flow delta, top and bottom eighteen:

Read the DF column against the delta columns — that is the whole exercise. In the bottom block sit names whose absolute flow is still among the highest on the board — Lumentum at +249, the photonics and equipment complex, KLA with the most negative delta in the scan — but whose advance has stalled. In the top block sit the AI-opex names in a near-unbroken line — BlackBerry, Fortinet, OVH, Datadog, Palo Alto, all accelerating — the Rubin periphery (DuPont, ARM, Marvell, Astera, Dell — connectivity, materials, boxes, not the crowded core), and one row that carries the week’s whole thesis: Duolingo, flow score deeply negative, flagged “reversal ↑” — a destroyed agentic winner turning.

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2 · The State

The four buckets, introduced. If you are new to the framework: we cut the growth trade into four functional indices, each with its own page, methodology and sector sub-indices — and the 2026 tape has been a relay between them. Here is each one, with its price action this year and the sectors underneath it.

Rubin 100 — the AI build-out. The infrastructure of making intelligence: semiconductors, memory, packaging, equipment, power and materials — ~125 names across the supply chain. The year’s absolute leader since the AI-capex trade crowded in; the composite shows the run, the sector strip shows where inside it the return was made.

AEI — the AI-opex layer. The companies that sell the running of AI rather than the building of it — security, observability, data and cloud infrastructure, ~33 names. The humbler bet: whoever the application winners turn out to be, all of them pay this toll. It has quietly compounded underneath the build-out all year.

AW40 — the agentic winners. The concentrated list of companies whose applications should win the agentic era — 40 names. This is the cohort 2026 punished hardest: every name whose agentic future is attached to a legacy business was repriced brutally, and the composite wears the damage. It never got to run — which is exactly why its reversal cluster matters now.

HALO 100 — functional growth beyond AI. One hundred growth names selected for what they do — health, aerospace, energy, platforms — the growth tape that is not an AI bet. It carried the first months of the year before the baton passed to the build-out, and its sector strip shows an internal rotation of its own.

The relay, in one sentence: HALO led the first months → the build-out took over and still holds the year → the agentic winners were wrecked along the way → the opex layer compounded quietly underneath. That is the starting grid for what the flow data says next.

What the flow deltas say now. We ran the rate-of-change cut across all four buckets this week, and the numbers are worth stating plainly:

• The build-out (125 names): median flow score 111 — still the highest absolute reading of any bucket — but the median 5-day delta is +1.1, and 44 of 125 names have stalled outright. Inside the semi core it is starker: median 5-day delta +0.6, with 13 of 29 core names stalled — and the stall list is the crowded trade by name: NVIDIA, Broadcom, KLA, Samsung, Advantest, Disco, Lasertec, SanDisk, Western Digital, Teradyne. What still advances inside the complex is the periphery — ARM, Marvell, AMD, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron — not the core.

• AI-opex (33 names): the strongest advancer in the scan — median 21-day delta +16.2, sixteen of thirty-three names accelerating up.

• The agentic winners (40 names): median flow score −52 — the wreckage is real — but sixteen of forty names are in “reversing-up,” the single largest reversal cluster we track. Money is quietly returning to the most-destroyed corner of the growth tape.

• HALO (100 names): mixed and cooling at the median — the early-year leader resting, with its own internal rotation underway.

The one-line reduction: absolute flow still says “semis lead.” The rate of change says the leadership is already passing — from the build-out core to the opex layer and the application names. Flow deltas turn before price does; that is why we watch them.

The structural read — the wave count, and what it allows. Our working count on the growth proxy (QQQ): the advance off the late-2022 base ran a complete five-wave sequence — sub-waves (1) through (5) — into the early-2025 high as Wave 1 of a larger degree; the spring-2025 break was Wave 2; and the advance since is an ongoing Wave 3, with its own first sub-waves in place and price riding the upper rail of the ascending channel. If the count is right, the most powerful stretch of the sequence is the one we are in — which argues that pauses get bought and that an internal rotation is more likely than a top. The count is a working hypothesis, not a certainty: a decisive break of the channel and the Wave-2 low is what would invalidate it.

Underneath the index, the two ends of the rotation each carry their own structure. The semi complex broke its steep April uptrend and sits on the horizontal base near SMH 582 — and above that base a diamond may be forming, usually a topping shape. It is not confirmed and could dissolve, but a completed diamond would be the pattern-level version of the hand-off the flow deltas are already showing.

Software — the rotation’s destination — shows the mirror image: the downtrend broke to the upside, the correction came back to retest the old broken line from above and held — a textbook throwback. If that was the extent of the downside, it is stable bullish behaviour and the bottom is likely in.

And the three proxies on one rebased window make the hand-off visible in a single frame — the semis’ vertical leg flattening while the index grinds and software climbs off its base:

3 · The Outlook

The forward read we hold lightly and reset each week. This week it is a double rotation — one inside the AI trade, one beyond it — and both would be healthy if they complete.

Rotation one — inside AI, from build-out to opex and applications. If the AI trade matures, this is exactly the hand-off it should produce: capex-led leadership giving way to the layer that runs intelligence. The economics are lining up underneath it — token prices keep falling while the new compute generation ships, and cheaper inference on better silicon is precisely what makes agents economically viable at scale. A market that pays for opex and applications is a market saying AI works — the spend is producing usage, not just capacity. The flow data above says this rotation has already begun.

Rotation two — beyond AI, the laggards catch up. The non-AI growth cohort has underperformed for months, and the earnings bar there is set correspondingly low — good prints should be materially rewarded, the mirror image of the highest-bar-of-the-cycle problem the AI hardware names carry into the same season. HALO’s early-year leadership was the first act of this trade; a second act after the rest would fit the pattern.

And the old winners? The story is not dead. A leadership trade that ran this far needs a rest, and the constructive path is exactly what Tuesday’s Pulse framed: the semi complex holds its base, consolidates through the summer, and comes back later in the year — leaner, and with the earnings season having reset the bar. This applies globally as much as at home: Korea and TSMC are the same crowded trade in regional form, as this week’s Global edition lays out — the ex-US benchmark’s whole year is carried by the chip economies, and their rest is the same rest.

The macro frame sits underneath: whether the inflation impulse crests or entrenches decides how much multiple the growth complex keeps, and firmer yields this week are a small vote for caution on the longest-duration names.

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Thank you for reading this week’s edition of Closelook@Hypergrowth, dated Thursday, 28 May 2026. The next edition will be published on Thursday, 4 June 2026.

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NVIDIA is not riding a cycle. It is becoming a utility — the first technology company on a credible path to one trillion dollars in annual revenue. Not because demand stays hot, but because NVIDIA is transitioning from selling hardware to operating the base layer of global compute. Every inference call, every agent transaction, every digital twin simulation, every robot brain update runs on NVIDIA's stack. That is not a product cycle. That is a tax on intelligence itself.

The market prices NVIDIA like a semiconductor company with unusually high margins. The correct framing is a technology utility with structural lock-in, recurring software revenue, and sovereign-grade demand. The gap between those two valuations is where the alpha lives.

What The Market Sees vs. What's Actually Happening

The Perception: NVIDIA sells GPUs into a hot market for AI training. Demand is cyclical. When hyperscaler CapEx normalizes, margins compress, and revenue declines. This is a chip cycle, and chip cycles end.

The Reality: NVIDIA is building the infrastructure layer that every AI workload — training, inference, agentic, physical — must run through. The CUDA ecosystem, NVLink fabric, and software stack (NIMs, Omniverse, AI OS) create a lock-in that deepens with every generation. Customers don't buy chips anymore. They buy sovereign AI factories.

Revenue 2025E: ~$130B → Revenue 2030E: $900B–$1T

Gross Margin: ~74% → ~75% (stable)

Software ARR: ~$5B → $120–140B (28x growth)

Net Margin: ~45% → ~55% (expansion through software mix)

The margin story is the key that most analysts miss. Software ARR scaling from $5B to $140B acts as a high-margin buffer against any hardware commoditization. NVIDIA's blended margin improves as it sells more software, not less hardware.

The Historical Pattern

Every major computing era produced one dominant platform layer.

Microsoft established a monopoly in the operating system market for personal computing. Apple built the consumer platform that owns the interface between humans and devices. AWS created the global cloud utility that commoditized infrastructure. NVIDIA is building the next layer: the global intelligence utility that powers training, inference, agents, and physical AI across every industry and sovereign boundary.

The pattern is consistent. Each layer captured a disproportionate share of the value created in its era because it was the chokepoint — the one piece of infrastructure that everything else depended on. Windows took a cut of every PC sold. iOS took a cut of every app purchased. AWS takes a cut of every workload hosted. NVIDIA is positioning to take a cut of every computation that involves intelligence.

By 2030, NVIDIA will operate the base layer of compute, the OS for autonomous agents, the network fabric for planetary-scale inference, and the sovereign infrastructure stack for nation-states. That is not a chip company. That is the operating system of civilization.

The Structural Moat

Three interlocking mechanisms make NVIDIA's position far more durable than a typical hardware lead.

Forced Upgrade Cycles

NVIDIA has compressed its architecture cadence to roughly 12 months: Blackwell (current) to Rubin (2026) to Feynman (2028). Each generation delivers performance improvements so large that the previous generation becomes economically unviable within 24 months. This is not Moore's Law — it is Moore's Law on steroids.

The secondary market for AI accelerators collapses because no rational buyer purchases hardware that will be 3–4x less efficient within a year. The result is permanent demand scarcity and continuous pricing power. Every customer must upgrade. There is no "good enough."

The Software Tax

NVIDIA's software stack — CUDA, NIMs, Omniverse, and the emerging AI OS layer — creates a 90% margin annuity that sits atop the hardware base. Every inference call is a taxable event. Every agent transaction is a taxable event. Every digital twin simulation is a taxable event.

Software ARR is projected to grow from approximately $5B today to $120–140B by 2030. That is a 28x expansion in recurring, high-margin revenue that transforms the financial profile from hardware cyclical to utility compounder.

Complexity as Margin Shield

NVIDIA no longer sells chips at transparent per-unit pricing. It sells racks at $4M, clusters at $1B, and sovereign cloud deployments at $10B. Each package bundles compute, networking (Spectrum-X, NVLink), cooling infrastructure, security, and software into a single deal. The complexity of these packages makes margin extraction invisible to buyers and analysts alike.

You cannot reverse-engineer the GPU margin from a billion-dollar sovereign AI factory contract. That opacity is structural and intentional.

"NVIDIA no longer sells chips. It sells national AI factories."

The sovereign angle adds a dimension that pure enterprise demand cannot. As trust in US hyperscalers erodes geopolitically, governments become the new whale customers. National AI clouds, defense-grade infrastructure, autonomous city platforms, and data sovereignty requirements all funnel through NVIDIA as the neutral geopolitical utility. This is infrastructure spending that is politically durable and not subject to corporate CapEx cycles.

Technical Setup

Trend: 🟢 Bullish

Structure: Trading above rising 20W and 50W EMAs. Held breakout above prior all-time high after January consolidation. Higher lows intact since October 2023.

Key Levels: Support $180 / $160 — Resistance $195 / $215 zone

Volume: Confirming on breakout candles, declining on pullbacks — healthy accumulation pattern.

Signal: The weekly structure supports the fundamental repricing thesis. The market is gradually shifting NVIDIA from semiconductor multiples toward platform/utility multiples, and the chart reflects that in the persistent bid under every consolidation.

What's Below The Surface

The thesis and the moat are clear. But the real questions for investors are: what exactly does $1T in revenue look like, segment by segment; what breaks the thesis; and how do you size the position?

In the C+ Premium section on Substack, we go deeper:

→ Full revenue waterfall: $550B data center + $180B networking + $130B software + $120B robotics + $70B auto/edge

→ Bear ($5.7T) / Base ($13.1T) / Bull ($15.8T) valuation with implied share prices

→ Three macro waves: Data Center Replacement, the Agentic Economy, and the Robotics Economy

→ The Canary Risk Framework: Custom ASICs, Rubin yield issues, sovereign regulation, Taiwan geopolitics, and power grid constraints

→ Portfolio: NVIDIA is a core position in the Closelook Hypergrowth Portfolio. Live tracking coming soon for C+ Exclusive subscribers.

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Hypergrowth, dated November 14, 2024 👋. The next edition will be published on 20 November 2024.

A Closelook At This Edition

1. This Week's Action: Trump Winners and Losers

2. Macro Insights: Sticky Inflation Landing Ahead

3. Higher For Longer: Initial Macro Forecast For 2025

4. The Hypergrowth Portfolio: Rebalancing After Earnings And Election

5. This Week's Stock Spotlight: Zeta Global - Fraudulent Financials?

6. Knowledge Corner: Why 2024/25 is different from 2016/17

7. Upcoming Transactions: More Rebalancing After the Election

8. Final Words: It’s The Bond Market, Stupid!

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(1) This Week's Action: Trump Winners and Losers

Stocks have been on a tear since Donald Trump claimed victory in the United States election last week. The S&P 500 posted its best week in a year, gaining 4.7 percent and crossing the symbolic threshold of 6,000 for the first time.

The Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 finally made new ATHs, breaking above the summer 2024 highs.

The best-performing Nasdaq 100 stock in the past month has been Tesla - up more than 50 percent. Animal spirits have returned.

The table below shows the Nasdaq 100 one-month individual stocks performance ranking.

Quite a few semiconductor stocks are at the bottom of the table, while software has finally outperformed the hardware/infrastructure-related AI sectors.

Super Micro, Moderna, and PDD have been the worst performers - all for different reasons.

In contrast to the two NASDAQ indices, the performance of the SP 500 Info Tech sector has been more muted (which is a warning signal to me).

I see the sector in the midst of completing wave 9. This may indicate a forthcoming top as the minimum requirements for a 5-leg impulse wave setting with extension have been satisfied.

While we are entering the seasonally best 10 weeks of the year (mid-November until the end of January), I am worried about the bond market's performance.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate yields have risen to 7.38 % from around 6 percent at the time of the initial Fed cut.

The TTL ETF has cratered. It is trading below 90 USD and heading toward the central support zone around 87.50 USD.

It may well have completed an A-B-C consolidation pattern, followed by (the early stages of) another impulse leg down. In a more bullish scenario, yields should stop rising around the current level and move back to the 100 USD level (see A-B-C-D-E pattern above).

In a bearish scenario, yields will soon cross the 4.50 percent level and move closer to the 4.75 to 5.00 percent level.

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(2) Macro Insights: Sticky Inflation Landing Ahead

Trump vs. Bond - the real battle will not be between the Democratic Party Leaders and Big D; the newly elected president will face a more challenging opponent.

The name is Bond - Treasury Bond! The real battle will be between the bond vigilantes and Donald Trump. And bond vigilantes are tough adversaries. They cannot be scared away by social media, (false) claims, or any other measures from the political campaign playbook. They like to make a deal, lock in a profit and disappear.

Yesterday's CPI report indicated inflation might become sticky above the Fed's 2.0% target. Headline and core CPI inflation rates increased to 2.6% and 3.3% year-over-year in October.

While goods prices continue to deflate, supercore inflation, rent inflation, and wage growth all saw increases last month, suggesting they are stabilizing at relatively high levels.

This, combined with strong economic growth, lends further evidence that the Fed may not ease monetary policy a lot further in the months ahead. This view is further reinforced by rising bond yields, which question the wisdom of the Fed's recent rate cuts.

One and done! One rate cut in 2025 and no more is my preferred scenario.

Ed Yardeni is not concerned about a second wave of inflation, as he believes that increasing productivity is already enhancing real GDP while containing unit labor costs inflation.

Recent upward revisions in productivity support this perspective. However, Yardeni suggests that the Fed may need to allow more time for consumer price inflation to become less sticky before considering additional rate cuts.

Ed Yardeni lifted his SP 500 targets to 6,100 for this year, 7,000 for 2025, and 8,000 for 2026. While I still align with this bullish view, I have raised the probability that we will see a much worse stock market performance in 2025.

One reason is that the bull market will be entering its third year in 2025 - this often marks the end of a bull cycle. The second reason is that while earnings have risen and are projected to continue increasing in 2025, valuations in anticipation of lower interest rates have risen even more.

Multiple expansion has contributed to more than fifty percent of the SP 500 advance in 2024.

This has been based on projecting much lower rates in 2025, as the Fed Dot Plot outlined numerous rate cuts ahead.

Assuming this will not happen, we may see multiple compression in 2025 offsetting any positive effects from rising earnings.

I think it will all depend on the bond market, where we may see the “higher for longer” views re-emerge as soon as December 2024.

(3) Higher For Longer: Initial Macro Forecast For 2025

In the U.S., several factors contribute to the concern about a potential uptick in inflation in 2025, particularly when compared to 2024 numbers.

Sticky Inflation

• Inflation, especially in the service sector, is showing signs of becoming sticky. This means that despite overall inflation rates slowing down, specific components of inflation are not decreasing as quickly as expected. Services inflation, in particular, is stubborn and continues to be a concern.

Supercore Inflation

• The supercore inflation measure, which isolates components of core inflation that are highly sensitive to economic conditions, has been rising. This indicates that demand-driven inflationary pressures are persistent.

High Rents and Housing Costs

• Shelter inflation, which includes rents and owners' equivalent rents, remains elevated. Although there was a slight deceleration in shelter costs in some months, they have not cooled as quickly as anticipated. Housing insurance costs are also increasing due to more frequent and expensive natural disasters, contributing to the stickiness in housing-related inflation.

Structural Changes in the Economy

• Structural changes, such as labor shortages, especially in industries requiring in-person work, and the aging of the U.S. population, are driving up costs for health care services, health insurance, and other services. These factors resist the Federal Reserve's efforts to drive inflation back to the 2% target quickly.

Comparison to 2024 Numbers

• The year-over-year comparison of inflation rates in 2025 will be influenced by the inflation rates experienced in 2024. The base effect could make the year-over-year inflation rates in 2025 appear higher.

Federal Reserve's Stance

• The Federal Reserve may turn more cautious about cutting interest rates due to the persistent inflation, particularly in the service sector. While there are forecasts for potential rate cuts in late 2024 and 2025, the Fed may wait for further cooling in inflation before making any significant moves.

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The path to achieving the Fed's 2% inflation target may be slower and more challenging than anticipated, leading to concerns about an uptick in inflation in 2025.

The reflationary policies anticipated under a second Trump administration could significantly impact the economic landscape, particularly in the context of adding to inflation concerns.

Inflationary Pressures

• Trump's policies, including tax cuts, increased infrastructure spending, and protectionist measures such as tariffs, are expected to drive inflation. Tariffs, in particular, can lead to higher consumer prices as the costs of imported goods increase.

• Reducing the labor pool due to stricter immigration policies could also contribute to inflation by reducing the supply of workers, potentially leading to higher wages and prices.

Fiscal Policy and Debt

• The Trump administration's plans for tax cuts, such as extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, will likely increase economic growth and lead to higher fiscal deficits and national debt. This could exacerbate inflationary pressures and create uncertainty in the markets.

Monetary Policy

• The Federal Reserve may need to adjust its monetary policy in response to these reflationary measures. Higher inflation expectations could lead to higher interest rates to control inflation, which would impact bond markets and the overall cost of borrowing.

Market Reactions

• The anticipation of these policies has already led to market reactions, such as higher yields on 10-year Treasury notes and a stronger US dollar in the short term. However, long-term uncertainty around trade policy, fiscal deficits, and inflation could further challenge bond markets.

Labor Market and Immigration

• The impact of stricter immigration policies on the labor market could be significant. While some analysts argue that the reduction in the labor pool might not immediately lead to wage pressures due to existing slack in the unskilled labor market, others warn that mass deportations could disrupt the social and business fabric and lead to higher costs and inflation.

Reflationary Trades

Reflationary policies of the Trump administration are expected to:

• Increase inflation due to tax cuts, tariffs, and labor market adjustments.

• Lead to higher fiscal deficits and national debt.

• Influence monetary policy, potentially resulting in higher interest rates.

• Impact various market sectors differently, with equities likely benefiting and bond markets facing challenges.

• Create uncertainty and volatility in financial markets due to trade policy and immigration changes.

Investors are already positioning themselves for a reflationary environment, with markets pricing in higher inflation and interest rates.

(4) The Hypergrowth Portfolio: Rebalancing After Earnings And Election

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Hypergrowth, dated November 06, 2024 👋. The next edition will be published on 13 November 2024.

A Closelook At This Edition

1. This Week's Action: The Election and the Stock Market

2. A New Market Leadership: Hypergrowth Reflation Trades?

3. Did You Know? Hypergrowth in the Russel 2000 Index

4. The Hypergrowth Portfolio: Rebalancing Before the Election

5. This Week's Stock Spotlight: Astera Labs Inc - Semiconductor-Based Connectivity for Cloud and AI Infrastructure

6. Knowledge Corner: The Fed, Trumponomics, and the FOMC Meeting

7. Upcoming Transactions: Rebalancing After the Election

8. Final Words: What Can Possibly Go Wrong? A lot!

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(1) This Week's Action: The Election and the Stock Market

The newly elected Trump administration can impose higher tariffs (raising inflation risks) and lower taxes (ballooning the federal deficits). That could push the 10-year yield up to 4.75%-5.00%.

A Republican-controlled presidency and Congress will mean less regulation and a more dovish stance on mergers and acquisitions, which benefits financial stocks and some mega-cap names.

As advocated by Donald Trump, extreme tariffs may interrupt the path of disinflation and lead to higher interest rates and inflation.

Universal tariffs under the Trump administration might impair companies that heavily source their goods from overseas markets and increase the sourcing costs of those American companies dependent on imports.

Trump has made universal tariffs a core part of his economic agenda, suggesting a 20% tariff on all goods from all countries and a 60% rate on Chinese imports.

Trump has described universal tariffs as drawing a “ring around the country” and denied they would be inflationary.

Universal tariffs will produce a lot of revenue, which can be used to cut corporate and individual taxes, significantly boost growth, and pro-capital and investment.

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Given this, the SP 500 could climb to around 7,000 next year. Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 may pose similar gains. The R2K index may outperform all three indices by quite a margin.

(2) A New Market Leadership: Small-Cap Hypergrowth Reflation Trades?

Stocks inside the Russell 2000 Growth Index, which fall under the reflation trade category and are not negatively affected by higher rates, may provide the best return in 2025 as the market leadership may change substantially under the Trump administration.

The table below shows the largest stocks by market capitalization in the index. Sprouts Farmers Market is part of the hypergrowth portfolio.

The index has exhibited a stellar performance in the past 52 weeks - up close to 100 %.

It has outperformed the R2K index and the R2K value Index by a considerable margin.

(3) Did You Know? Hypergrowth in the Russel 2000 Index

Small-cap are potential winners under a second Trump presidency, as investors expect it would ease regulations on businesses weighing more heavily on smaller businesses. Tailwinds and catalysts for sustained outperformance for small caps entail:

1. Trump’s domestic-focused agenda,

2. deregulation policy increases small business confidence,

3. higher M&A/sponsor activity with weaker DOJ/FTC

4. extension of individual/pass-through tax cuts,

5. a larger fiscal package passed by Congress in 2025, removing the downside to U.S. growth.

Headwinds include higher interest rates due to the inflationary tariffs and growth agenda. This may affect small-cap stocks negatively due to increased borrowing costs.

Valuation and Market Dynamics

• Valuation Discounts: Small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 are currently trading at historically wide discounts relative to large-cap stocks. This valuation gap presents an opportunity to capitalize on potentially undervalued growth companies

• Rotation from Mega-Caps: As money may be reallocated out of highly concentrated mega-cap stocks, it may flow into more attractively valued small-cap stocks.

Attractive ways to play the Trump small-cap stock trade at the ETF level entail the Russel 2000 Growth Ishares ETF, the Russel 2000 Ishares ETF, and the Small-cap ETF Vanguard.

The table below shows the fifty largest Russel 2000 companies by market capitalization.

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The table below shows the fifty best-performing Russel 2000 companies year-to-date (06 November 2024).

Growth areas inside the R2K include healthcare, consumer discretionary, infotech, communication services, and industrials.

Zeta Global and Sprout Farmers Market are among the top 15 and are part of the hypergrowth portfolio.

(4) The Hypergrowth Portfolio: Rebalancing Before the Election

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Hypergrowth, dated October 23, 2024 👋. The next edition will be published on 30 October 2024.

A Closelook At This Edition

1. This Week's Action: Nasdaq 100 And Its Subsectors Look More Toppy

2. Valuation: The Buffett Indicator Screams A Very Loud Sell Signal

3. Did You Know? Goldman Sachs Just Predicted A Miserable Decade For US Stocks Ahead

4. The Hypergrowth Portfolio: Anticipating a Year-End Rally, But Less Than Usual

5. This Week's Stock Spotlight: Sprouts Farmers Market

6. Knowledge Corner: What Is A Minsky Moment?

7. Upcoming Transactions: Waiting For A Dip

8. Final Words: What Can Possibly Go Wrong? A lot!

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This Week's Action: Nasdaq 100 And Its Subsectors Look More Toppy

The Nasdaq 100 may still be in the process of forming a double top. It has closed all three gaps from the July high to the August low and has moved sideways since.

The price action looks increasingly “wedgy” to me, which is always alarming. A wedge is a topping formation with potentially more long-term trend-reversing implications.

The Nasdaq 100 Equal Weight Index has failed to push through and confirm the ATHs.

Given that we have entered the final week of mutual fund tax selling, are in the middle of the earnings season, and only a few days away from the US elections, elevated volatility can be expected into November. The key message from last week still holds.

The wedge-type move-up we have seen since mid-September may also indicate a short-term top. I expect election uncertainty and tax selling by mutual funds (until October 28) to put pressure on the stock market in the two weeks ahead.

The same applies to the other key messages from last week’s edition:

Geopolitical tensions may also rise as the winter war period approaches in Ukraine, and the Israeli counterstrike against Iran is due shortly. Any slight earnings or guidance misses will lead to wild downturns in hypergrowth stocks, as the ASML example from last week shows.

I would also like to repeat this statement from last week: Contrary to its regular seasonal pattern, the US stock market has increased in the past six weeks. I believe a more significant dip is overdue for a year-end rally to start in November.

The Nasdaq 100 Technology Index has failed to move close to its old highs.

The Nasdaq 100 Ex Tech Index reached a new ATH but has displayed significant weakness this week. The Nasdaq 100 Ex Top 30 Index has also lost steam.

The broadening theme inside the Nasdaq 100 has ended, and I have started to favor the Mag-7 stocks over the smaller ones for the rest of the year.

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Higher yields usually do not bode well for the smaller Nasdaq 100 stocks. And the yield on the 10-year Treasury has moved above the crucial 4.2 % level. And I expect it to stay above 4 % until the end of 2024.

Valuation: The Buffett Indicator Screams A Very Loud Sell Signal

The US stock market has just hit its most overvalued level since the peak of the Dot Com Bubble. The SP 500 Forward price-to-sales ratio has exceeded its post-Covid peak and has reached its 2000/2001 level.

With the Buffett Ratio (i.e., forward P/S) reaching a record high of 2.9 and the S&P 500 forward P/E elevated at 22.0 times, valuations are stretched to the extreme compared to historical standards.

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The forward P/E ratio, on the other hand, is relatively low compared to the forward P/S ratio because the S&P 500 forward profit margin has been climbing to record highs and is expected to continue increasing in a soft landing scenario.

Did You Know? Goldman Sachs Just Predicted A Miserable Decade For US Stocks Ahead

Goldman Sachs just forecasted that the S&P 500 would yield annualized returns of just 3% (before adjusting for inflation) over the next decade.

They estimate that the potential outcomes range from -1% at the low end to +7% nominal returns at the high end. This is a significant decrease from the 13% average annual return observed over the past ten years. This forecast is also notably lower than the long-term average return of 11% and the broader market expectation of around 6%.

Several factors contributed to this subdued outlook. One reason is the current high level of market concentration, with the ten largest mega-cap technology firms, such as Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon, accounting for about 36% of the index. This concentration makes the index's performance heavily reliant on these companies' earnings growth.

Additionally, Goldman Sachs anticipates a slight contraction in GDP over the next decade, further impacting potential returns. This refers to a reduction in economic growth or output from current levels rather than an outright decline into negative territory.

This slowdown could manifest as lower GDP growth rates, reduced consumer spending, or less business investment, but not necessarily a full recession where economic activity declines for consecutive quarters.

Goldman Sachs also highlighted a 72% chance that the S&P 500 would underperform compared to Treasury Bonds over this period, with a 33% likelihood that stock returns will fall below inflation levels.

The analysts suggest that investors should prepare for lower equity returns relative to historical performance and consider diversification strategies, such as equal-weighted index exposure, to achieve better returns potentially.

Paul Tudor Jones and the Minsky Moment

Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones has expressed concerns about the U.S. government's current fiscal deficit and the increased spending promised by both presidential candidates, warning that the bond market may compel the government to address these issues post-election.

"We will quickly face financial difficulties unless we seriously tackle our spending problems," Jones stated in an interview with CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin on 22 October 2024.

As the founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment, Jones is worried that excessive government spending could trigger a significant bond market sell-off, leading to rising interest rates.

In contrast to Goldman Sachs, he plans to avoid owning fixed income and intends to bet against the longer-dated segment of the bond market, focusing on holding Bitcoin and gold.

Jones questioned whether a "Minsky moment"—a sudden dramatic drop in asset prices—could occur in the U.S. debt markets after the election, suggesting a potential realization that proposed fiscal policies are unsustainable.

The federal deficit for fiscal year 2024 has surpassed $1.8 trillion, an 8% increase from 2023, according to the Treasury Department. The government addresses this deficit by selling Treasury bonds, and Wall Street traders closely monitor the timing and profile of these sales. Over the past three years, rising interest rates have also raised concerns among economists and traders due to the government's increased annual debt cost.

In his interview, Jones noted that budget deficits grew under former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden's administrations, and he criticized Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris as being "least suited for the job ahead" regarding budget management. He remains concerned about inflation, especially if Trump wins.

Jones suggested several ways for the government to align its spending better, which might require significant changes like allowing Trump's first-term tax cuts to expire or significantly reducing the federal workforce.

Jones founded his hedge fund four decades ago and gained prominence by accurately predicting the 1987 stock market crash.

Tudor Jones is part of a growing crowd of elderly billionaires that has become skeptical - towards life, the stock market, the US and to mostly anything. :-))))

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Hypergrowth, dated October 16, 2024 👋.

A Closelook into This Edition

1. This Week's Action: Is a Double Top Forming in the Nasdaq 100 Index?

2. Hypergrowth: Are Enterprise Software and Cloud Stocks Experiencing a Dead Cat Bounce or the Beginning of a New Bull Market?

3. Did You Know? Nas…

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Hypergrowth, dated October 09, 2024 👋.

A Closelook into This Edition

1. This Week's Action: Fading China Stimulus, Missing October Volatility and a…

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Hypergrowth, dated October 03, 2024 👋.

A Closelook into This Edition

1. This Week's Action: Geopolitics, China Stimulus, and October Volatility

2. Hypergrowth: Another beating for the Nasdaq 100 and the Info Tech Sector?

3. The AI Play: Semis, Infrastructure, Derivative Pla…

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Hypergrowth, dated September 25, 2024 👋.

Stay sharp on the markets with Closelook!

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Thank you for reading this week's edition of Closelook@Hypergrowth, dated September 19, 2024 👋.

📅 The next update will be published on Wednesday, September 26, at 7:00 AM ET.

📅 The next edition of the Closelook@Global Stock Markets newsletter will be published on Saturday, September 21, at 7:00 AM ET.

📅 The next edition of the Cl…

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ServiceNow, Inc. specializes in transforming digital workflows. The company aids a variety of global entities, including industries, universities, and governments, in making their workflows digital.

It is all about workflows.

The core of its offerings is the Now Platform, designed to integrate systems, departments, and processes th…

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