§1 — Lede
🟡 Day two of the global bond rout: the US 10-year yield touched 4.81% this morning, its highest since November 2023, Japan’s 10-year holds above 3% for a second session, Germany’s is at a 2011 high and Britain’s is a hair under 5.3%. Oil above $90, rate-hike bets in three currencies and a wall of new debt are doing the pushing. Stocks are lower everywhere, Tokyo and Seoul hardest.
§1.5 — Pre-market US
S&P (ES) -0.4% · Nasdaq (NQ) -0.2% · Dow (YM) +0.05% · European hours, ~08:30 UTC
US futures are mixed to lower after Tuesday’s third straight losing session, with S&P futures off about four tenths and Nasdaq futures roughly two tenths lower. The Dow contract is flat. The tell is that the selling is orderly rather than panicked: the VIX volatility gauge is at 16.8, up modestly, not spiking.
§2 — Cross-asset
US 10-year 4.81% (high 4.814%, highest since Nov 2023) · US 30-year 5.29% · US 2-year 4.41% (highest since Jan 2025) · Japan 10-year 3.02% · Germany 10-year 3.38% · UK 10-year 5.27% · WTI $90.6 +0.4% · Gold $4,357 -0.9% · Bitcoin $76,565 -1.1%
Start with the number in the headline. The 10-year Treasury yield, the rate that sets US mortgages and corporate borrowing costs, closed Tuesday at 4.80%, up four hundredths on the day, and reached 4.814% this morning. That is the highest since November 2023 and, on a closing basis, the highest since 18 October 2023. It started the year at 4.20%. The two-year, which tracks what traders expect the Fed to do, is at 4.41%, up from about 3.50% in January and its highest since January 2025. The 30-year sits at 5.29%, close to a twenty-year high.
The move is global. Japan’s 10-year traded 3.02% in Tokyo after crossing 3% on Tuesday for the first time since September 1996. Germany’s 10-year Bund touched 3.38%, its highest since 2011. Britain’s 10-year gilt reached 5.27% and briefly approached 5.3%, levels last seen in mid-2008, and its 30-year is at 5.85%, the highest since 1998. One line inside the move still deserves its own sentence: France now borrows at a higher rate than Italy, 4.21% against 4.18% at Tuesday’s close.
The chart above is the cleanest picture of what “global” means here. BNDX holds government and corporate bonds from outside the US, hedged into dollars, and it closed Tuesday at 47.27, down 0.6% on the day and 3.2% over six months. That price sits on the multi-year support shelf built in October 2023, the last time yields were this high. Prices bouncing off a well-tested floor is the more common outcome; a clean break below it would say something new is happening to the world’s bond markets.
Three forces feed the sell-off. First, oil: WTI crude is at $90.6 and Brent above $95 after the US and Iran exchanged fire again on Tuesday and two tankers were reported hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Crude is up 8.6% in five sessions, and dearer oil is the input that turns a yield drift into an inflation worry. Second, central banks: traders now price a 67% chance of a Fed hike this month, up from about 40% a week ago, after Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech and Fed Governor Michael Barr’s call on Tuesday to “act decisively” if inflation does not slow. Eurozone inflation came in at 3.3% for August, the highest in almost three years, and a European Central Bank hike is now fully priced. In Tokyo, Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata said hikes may need to become “continuous” rather than twice a year, which lifted the yen to 159.7 from 160.3.
Third, supply. US federal debt crossed $40 trillion in August, months earlier than forecast. Alphabet, Amazon and the other AI giants have issued roughly $220 billion of bonds this year to fund data centres, competing for the same dollars that used to buy Treasuries. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that “I don’t think we are in any kind of a dire situation” and pointed to plans to double buybacks of long-dated bonds. The bond market’s reply so far: a brief dip in yields after the buyback announcement, then higher again.
Now the nuance from our own instruments. The house Sovereign Pressure Index, which measures stress in long-dated government bonds across seven major markets, has fallen to 0.05 from 1.91 three weeks ago, even as the equal-weight G7 10-year yield rose to 4.06%, up 14 hundredths over the same window. The reason is the shape of the move: two-year yields are rising faster than thirty-year yields, so the gap between 10- and 30-year rates has narrowed to 0.64 points. In plain terms, the market is repricing how much central banks will hike, not demanding a bigger premium to hold long bonds for decades. That is a rate-hike scare, and rate-hike scares end when the data or the central bank gives an answer. A buyers’ strike on long bonds, the scarier version, would show up as the long end leading. It is not, yet.
Gold is the other tell, and it is telling the same story as yesterday. An inflation panic should bid gold; instead the gold ETF GLD fell 2.9% on Tuesday to 396.75, under the 400 mark, and gold futures are down another 0.9% this morning at $4,357. Yields rising while gold falls is what a real-yield repricing looks like, and real yields are the enemy of everything that pays no coupon. Bitcoin is down 1.1% at $76,565, with the IBIT fund back under its 44.5 line.
§2.5 — Europe midday
DAX -0.20% · CAC -0.68% · FTSE 100 -0.51% · Stoxx 600 -0.57% · Euro Stoxx 50 -0.07% · as of 10:06 UTC
European equities are lower but calmer than Asia: the Stoxx 600 is off about half a percent at midday, with Paris the weakest of the big three and Frankfurt holding near flat after Tuesday’s 1% drop. The euro is down for a fifth straight day at 1.158 against a dollar that is at a three-week high.
§3 — Risk & dollar
DXY 99.8 (three-week high) · UUP $28.21 +0.32% · VIX 16.77 +2.6% · VIXY $17.80 +3.0% · USD/JPY 159.7 (from 160.3) · EUR/USD 1.158 -0.2%
The dollar is being bought on two stories at once: the Fed-hike story and the oil story, since the US is an exporter. The dollar index at 99.8 is its highest in almost three weeks. The VIX at 16.8 is rising but still in its calm zone, which fits an orderly repricing rather than a panic; it was 14.9 on Monday. Dollar-yen is the swing instrument to watch: it printed 160.3 overnight, giving back nearly all of the July 31 joint US-Japan intervention, then recovered to 159.7 after the Takata remarks. Brown Brothers Harriman warned that rising interest costs will lift the premium investors demand on Treasuries and leave the dollar exposed to fiscal stress later, even as it gains now.
§4 — Asia session
Nikkei 225 -2.85% (64,326) · KOSPI -3.99% · Taiwan -1.67% · Hang Seng -0.07% · ASX 200 -0.96% · Nifty -0.59%
Asia took the brunt. The Nikkei lost nearly 1,900 points, its worst day in months, and Seoul fell 4% as the two markets most exposed to chip prices and to rising domestic yields sold off together. Taiwan gave back 1.7%. Hong Kong was the calm exception, flat on the day. The US-listed proxies at Tuesday’s New York close had already pointed this way: Korea (EWY) −2.80%, Hong Kong (EWH) −1.57%, Japan (EWJ) −0.69%, China (MCHI) −0.57%.
§5 — US yesterday
SPX (SPY) $761.78 · d -0.69% · w -0.98% · m +0.54%
NDX (QQQ) $707.64 · d -1.27% · w -1.23% · m +1.04%
DJI (DIA) $527.75 · d -0.72% · w -1.40% · m -0.65%
RUT (IWM) $290.57 · d -1.14% · w -1.75% · m -2.07%
Tuesday was the third straight down day for US stocks and the first with a technical mark on it: the Nasdaq-100 ETF closed at 707.64, below its 50-day average of 711.59 for the first time since the spring rally began. The equal-weight S&P (RSP) fell 0.82%, so the selling was broad rather than a handful of giants. Small caps are now down 2.1% on the month, the weakest of the four benchmarks.
The bond side of the ledger was red across every maturity and every credit grade: TLT (20-year-plus Treasuries) −0.79% to 81.87, now down 6.1% this year; IEF (7- to 10-year) −0.69% to 92.10, further under the 93.04 line this page uses as its bond veto; investment-grade LQD −0.93%; high-yield HYG −0.89%; the broad AGG −0.66%; municipals −0.73%. Only floating-rate loans (BKLN −0.10%) held, because their coupons rise with rates.
§6 — S&P 500 sectors
Tuesday: Energy +1.27% · Utilities +0.78% · Health Care +0.66% · Staples +0.32% · Discretionary -1.72% · Tech -1.53% · Industrials -1.37%
Top-3 (5d): Energy +4.37% · Health Care +0.30% · Staples -0.23%
Bottom-3 (5d): Industrials -3.18% · Discretionary -2.85% · Materials -2.82%
The sector board is a textbook defensive rotation: everything that rose on Tuesday was either an oil beneficiary or a bond-like defensive, and everything cyclical fell. Energy is now the only sector up on the week. Software was the worst pocket in tech, with the IGV fund down 3.5% in one session, while semiconductors (SMH) lost 2.1%.
§7 — Pre-Europe-session ETF proxies
DAX (EWG) -1.79% · FTSE (EWU) -0.37% · CAC (EWQ) -0.92% · Italy (EWI) -1.73% · Spain (EWP) -1.35%
US-listed European proxies at Tuesday’s New York close had Germany the weakest at −1.79% and the UK the most resilient at −0.37%, in line with Tuesday’s cash sessions.
§8 — Reference portfolios
IndexDayWeekMonthRubin 100-1.79%-2.68%+3.72%HALO 100-1.60%-3.89%+0.90%Euro-AI 50-2.26%-2.54%+2.14%AW40-1.73%+2.32%+17.80%
All four house indices fell on Tuesday, the first clean sweep in weeks. Euro-AI 50 led the decline at −2.26%, Rubin 100 lost 1.79% and is now down 2.7% on the week, and HALO 100 is the weakest over five days at −3.89%. AW40 fell 1.73% but still holds +2.3% on the week and +17.8% on the month, the one index with August’s gains largely intact. Whether it starts giving those back is the question this week will answer.
§10 — Money Temperature
Composite 49 🟡 · Label Cooling / below the line · Change −8 points on the day
The composite Money Temperature, our gauge of how much appetite for risk is in the system, dropped eight points to 49 at Tuesday’s close, its first reading under the neutral 50 line since the summer rally began. One reading below 50 is a warning, not a verdict; two or three in a row would mark a change of regime.
§11 — Pattern Scanner
Snapshot 2,487 names as of 1 Sep · Trend breaks 28 corrections · 10 big-down days · 9 death crosses · 4 names lost their 50-day · Against the tide 15 golden crosses · 12 reclaimed their 50-day · 21 leaders
The nightly scanner read is two-sided in a way the headlines are not. The stress list is real: 28 names flagged as corrections, ten with outsized one-day losses and nine death crosses, where the 50-day average falls through the 200-day. But the constructive list is nearly as long, with 15 golden crosses and 12 names back above their 50-day line, mostly outside US tech. The market is not breaking everywhere; it is breaking where it had run furthest.
§13 — Cross-read
Two days into September the bond market has taken over the conversation, and it is worth being precise about what it is saying. Yields at multi-decade highs in four countries at once is a supply-and-inflation story: oil above $90 after the weekend’s US-Iran fighting, three central banks leaning toward hikes this month, and a $40 trillion US debt pile competing with $220 billion of AI bonds for the same buyers. That much is in every headline. What the headlines miss is the shape of the move. The short end is leading, our Sovereign Pressure Index has fallen to near zero, and the 10-to-30-year gap is narrowing. That is the signature of a rate-hike scare, not of investors refusing to lend long, and rate-hike scares are the kind that end with a data point or a central-bank meeting rather than with a crisis. Gold falling through a supposed inflation panic says the same thing from the other side: real yields are rising, and real yields punish everything that pays no coupon, from gold to Bitcoin to the software stocks that fell hardest on Tuesday. The BNDX chart puts a number on the risk: international bonds are sitting on the floor they built in October 2023, the last time yields were here, and floors like that usually hold. This page keeps Sunday’s September frame, a cautious month with a minus-five-percent base case, and keeps its bond rule too: with IEF under 93.04, every stock story is standing on a shaky floor. What would change the reading is the long end taking the lead, or BNDX breaking its shelf. Neither has happened. Tonight the earnings calendar reasserts itself: Broadcom and Snowflake report after the close, and Friday’s payrolls are the first jobs report the market will read with a September hike two-thirds priced. The four reactions from Tuesday night, MongoDB, GitLab, Dell and Palo Alto, are laid out in today’s Morning 10.
§14 — Watch next session
US 10-year at the New York close: Tuesday’s 4.797% was the highest close since October 2023; a close above 4.81% extends the run into territory last seen in the 2023 peak.
BNDX at 47.27 on its late-2023 floor. A close below roughly 47 would be the first sign the global bond sell-off is entering a new phase rather than testing an old one.
The 10-to-30-year gap, now 0.64 points: if it starts widening while yields rise, the long end is taking the lead and the rate-hike-scare reading weakens.
Nasdaq-100 ETF against its 50-day average at 711.59: a second straight close below it turns Tuesday’s test into a trend change.
Dollar-yen at 160: the Bank of Japan’s Takata comments pulled it back to 159.7; a New York close above 160 reopens the intervention question.
Broadcom (AVGO, est. EPS $3.22 on $29.24B revenue) and Snowflake (SNOW, est. $0.45 on ~$1.48B) report after tonight’s close; Zscaler and Samsara follow Thursday.
Written 2026-09-02 ~10:30 UTC · Data: US closes 1 Sep (FMP via Bigdata.com), house nightlies as of 1 Sep, Asia closes and European midday 2 Sep · Coverage: Full.