How strong is business outside technology? And do the chipmakers confirm the AI build-out that the market is still pricing for 2027? The banks answer the first question from Tuesday. ASML on Wednesday and TSMC on Thursday answer the second.
Expectations are high going in. FactSet’s analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to grow 29.6% from a year earlier in the third quarter, up from 26.7% at the end of June — and the final figure usually ends up several points higher once companies have reported. For all of 2027 they expect growth of 15.8%, after 32.4% in 2026 (as reported by Forbes, citing FactSet). That is the number this season has to defend.
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The dates in our selection
Table as text
Consensus figures from earnings previews (MarketBeat, AlphaStreet, Zacks, Benzinga, Hudson Labs); estimates vary by source. Company guidance from the second-quarter reports.
The banks: the economy outside tech
Banks see the whole economy in their books — who borrows, who pays back, who trades and who buys companies. That makes them the first honest read on everything outside AI. JPMorgan reports first; the street carries about $5.93 a share and $51.2 billion in revenue, and about $26.8 billion of net interest income, the money it earns on loans minus what it pays on deposits. After the second quarter the bank raised its full-year guidance for that line, as reported, so the question is less the quarter than whether it raises again with the 10-year yield at 5.24%.
The second line to watch is credit: how many loans, above all credit-card loans, go bad. Higher rates help a bank’s interest income until they start to hurt its borrowers. Bank of America on Wednesday adds the view from American households; it guided its net interest income to grow at the top end of 6–8% this year, as reported.
The share prices say the market is not sure. JPMorgan closed Friday at 332.99, 8.8% below its August high. Goldman Sachs rose 9.0% on 14 July, the day of its second-quarter report with record trading results — and has since fallen 22.3% from its 15 July high to 895.32. Bank of America is 16.2% below its August high, the financials fund XLF 6.5% below its September high. Good news is priced lower than in July; that is what makes Tuesday a test.
ASML and TSMC: the AI test
TSMC is the most important date of the week for our AI view. It makes the chips for almost every AI designer, so its words on demand, factory capacity and advanced packaging — the step that stacks chips and memory together — show how business is going along the whole AI supply chain. TSMC guided third-quarter revenue to $44.6–45.8 billion and a gross margin of 65–67%, a little lower than before because its new 2-nanometer process costs 3–4 points of margin while it ramps up. It raised its 2026 investment plan to $60–64 billion. Its September sales were already out: 54.6% above a year earlier, and the quarter’s revenue of about NT$1.49 trillion came in above the roughly NT$1.46 trillion analysts expected (Reuters, citing LSEG).
ASML adds the view from one step earlier: how much the chipmakers are willing to spend on the machines that make the chips. It guided third-quarter sales to €11–12 billion and the year to €43–45 billion. Since 2026 it no longer reports quarterly orders, so the order book cannot answer the question — its words about 2027 must. In July it said it plans to raise its capacity for EUV machines, the ones that print the most advanced chips, by about 30% for 2027 from around 65 this year.
Both arrive after a weak week for chips. The chip fund SOXX fell 5.0% last week and is 14.6% below its June high; TSMC’s US shares are 6.7% below their 5 October record, ASML 10.5% below its June high.
Do good numbers still get paid?
This is the third question of the week, and the record says it is the hardest. TSMC beat analysts’ earnings estimates in nine of its last ten reports up to April — and in five of those ten the stock moved less than 3% in the three days after, in three it fell more than that. ASML beat on earnings eight times in ten, and six of ten reports left the stock inside that 3% band.
Table as text
Closelooknet Print Record cards (ten reports to April 2026, three-day window from the close before the report, ±3% band); July 2026 moves and current levels from the Closelooknet data lake, closes to 9 October.
For chip stocks the quarter itself has long stopped being the news — they trade on what comes next. That is why the outlook matters more than the beat: a strong quarter with a cautious word on 2027 has been sold before, and a modest quarter with a raised plan has been bought.
What decides the week
Three things, in this order. First, the outlooks: do they support further increases in earnings estimates for 2027? For ASML, analysts expect earnings to grow about 33% next year, as reported — TSMC’s capacity plans and ASML’s words on 2027 orders will show whether that holds. Second, the estimates themselves: whether analysts raise or cut their numbers in the days after each report. Third, the reaction: are good numbers rewarded with follow-through buying — or are even strong results not enough to beat what the market already expects?
We score each report on our Print Record board: a move of 3% or more within three sessions counts as paid or sold, anything smaller as flat. The bank cards open on Tuesday, ASML and TSMC follow. Not investment advice — this is how we read the week.
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This week
Tuesday: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup before the open; PepsiCo’s earnings window closes. Wednesday: ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, the September inflation report; Delta’s window closes. Thursday: TSMC. The lines: S&P 500 0.1% below its record; chip fund SOXX 14.6% below its June high; Goldman Sachs 22.3% below its July high.
The signals behind thisEach line links to the tool it comes from
SignalsPrint Record — every earnings report, scored paid, flat or sold→LabTaiwan AI Pulse — TSMC and its suppliers into Thursday→LabSemicap / Test Pulse — the chip-equipment makers and their orders→Morning 10Kospi −3.5% back from holiday; SpaceX deal sinks the phone carriers→
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