Introducing the Weekly Signal — Bitcoin Scores 37/100
A new systematic framework for regime analysis. 7 levels, 9 dimensions, one composite score. The first signal is live — and it's bearish.
### A New Product: The Weekly Signal
Today we’re launching something we’ve been building for a while.
The Weekly Signal is a systematic regime analysis published every Monday. One instrument per week. 7 levels of analysis. 9 scored dimensions. One composite score that summarizes the market's state in a single number.
Why build this? Because most weekly market commentary is narrative first, evidence second. Someone has a view and finds the data to support it. We wanted the opposite — a framework that produces a verdict, whether we agree with it or not.
Here’s how it works:
**Quantitative dimensions (scored 0–100, weighted):**
- **D1 Macro Regime** (20%) — Price vs 200WMA and slope
- **D2 Liquidity** (15%) — Real rates, Global M2, DXY
- **D3 Trend** (15%) — Weekly SuperTrend
- **D4 Participation** (15%) — Accumulation/distribution, on-chain flows
- **D5 Breadth** (10%) — Dominance, altcoin breadth
- **D6 Volatility** (10%) — DVOL/BVIV, term structure
- **D7 Sentiment** (10%) — Fear & Greed, funding rates, CME COT
- **D9 Momentum** (5%) — Stochastic(14,3,3), RSI
**Qualitative levels (not scored):**
- **L4 Structure** — Channels, Fibonacci, Elliott Wave overlay
- **L6 Decision** — Playbook synthesis
- **L7 Risk** — Invalidation levels, alternative scenarios
The composite score maps to three states:
🟢 **80–100: Trend Continuation** — buy the dip, sell the rip
🟡 **50–79: Transition** — reduce size, increase caution
🔴 **0–49: Regime Change** — stop fading, follow the new trend
Every dimension is defined. Every weight is transparent. You can disagree with the readings, but the methodology is never hidden.
The latest issue is always free. The archive moves behind the C+ paywall — same model as before. Think of it as: you always get the current signal, subscribers get the history.
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### Bitcoin Weekly Signal — Week of Feb 24, 2026
The first Weekly Signal is Bitcoin. It scored **37 out of 100**.
**🔴 Regime Change.**
The framework is unambiguous. Five of eight quantitative dimensions score below 50. Here are the key readings:
**The macro picture is broken.** Price sits at ~$68K — a full 30% below the 200-week moving average at $97.3K. This isn’t a pullback to the mean. This is a structural break.
**The trend has flipped.** The weekly SuperTrend triggered a sell at $80,737. Price is now 16% below the trigger level. This isn’t a marginal signal — it’s a sustained, confirmed breakdown.
**Long-term momentum confirms.** The Coppock Curve reads −44. The last time it was this negative was the 2022 bear market. This is a long-term sell signal, not a tactical one.
**But liquidity says otherwise.** Here’s where it gets interesting. The DXY sits at 97.82 — well below 100 — and global M2 is expanding. Both are historically bullish for BTC. A weak dollar and expanding liquidity should be tailwinds for risk assets. Yet price is falling hard. When the framework’s own dimensions conflict, you pay attention. It means either the liquidity tailwind is about to kick in (bull case) or the structural damage is severe enough to overwhelm it (bear case).
**The kill level has been tested.** The most important number in this signal is ~$69K — the top of Elliott Wave 1, and the level where all bullish wave counts are invalidated. Price breached this level intraweek. The wick went below. But there has been no weekly close below it, and no monthly close below it.
This is the razor’s edge.
#### Two competing wave counts
**Primary count (bearish, 80% probability):** The 5-wave impulse from the 2022 low (~$16.7K) to ~$132K is complete. We’re now in wave A of a larger ABC correction. The 50% Fibonacci retracement (~$74K) has been lost. Next major support: the 61.8% retracement at ~$61K.
**Alternative count (bullish, 20% probability):** The move to ~$132K was not a complete 5-wave cycle. Instead, we’re witnessing an extended wave 3 — a 9-wave subdivision. The current decline is wave 6, and wave 7 up is about to begin. Under this count, the current zone is the buying opportunity.
**Both counts agree on one thing:** a weekly close below ~$69K kills every bullish interpretation. Below that level, only the bear case survives.
#### What we’re doing: staying sidelined
At the micro level, wave A likely needs one more leg down before completing. This can’t be seen on the long-term charts, but the internal structure matters. The typical ABC correction has a 5-3-5 internal count: five waves down in A, three waves up in B, and five waves down in C. We appear to be in the final sub-wave of A.
Wave B would then retrace 50–61.8% of wave A (preferred count). An alternative 3-3-5 flat structure could see wave B retrace up to 100% of A, but that’s not our base case.
**We would initiate a long position only under two conditions:**
1. One more leg down completes wave A with capitulation character, followed by a clear wave B setup
2. A structural trend break to the upside signaling a potential move back toward all-time highs
**Bottom line: There are better opportunities to trade right now.** The risk/reward on BTC at ~$69K is poor in both directions. We wait for resolution.
The full signal includes all 9 dimension breakdowns, indicator readings, two annotated charts (TradingView monthly + Barchart weekly), key levels table, scenario probabilities, and the full playbook.
** Read the full signal with chart analysis and EW count — free, no paywall:**
👉 [Bitcoin Weekly Signal — Feb 17-23, 2026](https://closelook.net/weekly/2026-02-24.html)
The Weekly Signal publishes every Sunday night at [closelook.net/weekly](https://closelook.net/weekly/)
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*Not financial advice. All content is for informational and educational purposes.*