The company told investors in June to expect about $50 billion in revenue and a gross margin of about 86%. Wall Street sits a little above that. What moves the stock is the price of memory chips from here on, and that price is revenue for Micron and a cost for everyone who builds phones, laptops and servers, Apple included.
The quarter is already known
In June Micron guided the quarter to August at $50.0 billion plus or minus $1 billion, after $41.46 billion in the quarter before: about 21% more in three months. Adjusted earnings per share were guided at $31.00 plus or minus $1.00, the gross margin at about 86%. FactSet’s consensus going into tonight is $31.52 a share on $51.07 billion.
Our Print Record shows why a beat is not enough. Micron beat the earnings estimate in all of its last ten reports and the revenue estimate in nine. The share price still fell by more than 3% over the following three sessions six times and rose by more than 3% four times; it never stayed flat. In March 2026 it beat on both lines and lost 12.4%. In June it rose 9.2%. The market grades Micron on the next quarter’s price outlook, not on the quarter just sold.
The memory stocks peaked in June
Every large memory name reached its high in the same week of June, the week of Micron’s last report. Since then the group has handed back between 12% and 40%, while staying far up on the year.
Table as text
Closelooknet data lake, daily closes to 29 September 2026, local currency.
The question behind that pullback is simple: have memory prices stopped rising as fast? In July the research firm TrendForce wrote that demand from AI servers still supported memory prices in the third quarter, but that the gains were getting smaller as consumer demand weakened. Micron’s own June guidance pointed the same way: its gross margin outlook reflected a slower pace of price increases. When Seoul reopened after its holiday on Monday, Samsung fell 5.4% and SK Hynix 5.1% in one session.
One price, two sides
For the buyers of memory the picture is the mirror image. TrendForce estimated in August that the parts for a 256 GB iPhone 18 Pro cost about 38% more than for last year’s model, mainly because of memory. Memory’s share of the phone’s parts bill rose from about 10% a year ago to about 34% in the third quarter of 2026, and is expected above 40% in the first half of 2027.
Apple fell 2.7% on Tuesday to $329.40; reports on its management changes and on rising memory costs were among the reasons given. Apple is up 21.7% this year. Micron is up 237.8%. The gap between the two is, to a large degree, the memory price moving from the buyer to the seller.
That is why tonight matters beyond one stock. If Micron guides the next quarter to another large step up in revenue and margin, the price of memory is still rising, and the cost pressure on device makers stays. If the guidance flattens, the memory stocks lose their main argument, and the buyers of memory get some relief.
What we watch tonight
The guidance for the quarter to November - revenue and gross margin. A margin above the 86% guided for this quarter says prices are still climbing.
What management says about 2027 supply - Micron has said its high-bandwidth memory for AI chips is sold out for 2026. More factory output next year means more supply and, eventually, lower prices.
The reaction, not the beat. Our record window opens at tonight’s close of $1,065.08 or wherever it ends, and gets its grade at Monday’s close, 5 October: at least 3% higher counts as paid, at least 3% lower as sold.
Micron is also the cleanest test of the argument in yesterday’s Pulse: with long bond yields near 5.6%, only fast earnings growth can make up for a higher discount rate. Few companies are growing earnings faster. Tonight shows whether that growth is still accelerating or has started to level off.
This is a research diary, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
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Into tomorrow
Tonight: Micron after the close (call 16:30 ET = 22:30 CET); our functional indices rebalance to equal weights at today’s close. Thursday: the Micron reaction in the Morning 10 and in Asia (Samsung, SK Hynix); Accenture and Nike report. The lines: Micron $1,065.08 into the print; paid from +3%, sold from −3% at Monday’s close.
The signals behind thisEach line links to the tool it comes from
Print RecordMicron — ten beats in ten reports, four paid, six sold, never flat→
LabMemory & HBM Pulse — the memory cohort every day→
Morning 10Bonds — TLT closes at a one-year low but holds 78; Micron reports tonight→