Warsh Goes Hawkish. The Long End Isn't Listening

Why should they?

Yesterday was Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as chair, and he used it the way new chairs usually do — to plant a flag. Rates stayed put at 3.50–3.75% (the fourth straight hold), but the message hardened: a unanimous vote, the easing bias quietly dropped, a dot plot where half the committee now pencils in at least one hike this year, and a statement st…