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Weekly Signal

Weekly Signal — TLT: The Crowded Trade

Week of Mon 25 May 2026 · Feature instrument: TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF)

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Thomas Look
May 25, 2026
∙ Paid

TLT, monthly. A five-wave decline from the 2020 high (~180); wave (5) is testing the wave (3) low at ~83 — the line in the sand. Source: TradingView, 24 May 2026.

Signal of the week: The whole thesis fits on one number. Hold 83 on a monthly close, and long-duration Treasuries may be carving a major bottom. Break it decisively, and the message flips to a …

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